Polymarket’s Loss Statistics Hide a Different Reality: Most Traders Lose Small, While Liquidity Concentrates at the Top

New on-chain evaluation of Polymarket signifies that headline loss figures inform an incomplete story. According to defioasis.eth, roughly 70% of Polymarket’s 1.7 million buying and selling addresses have realized losses, whereas near 30% have booked income.

At face worth, this resembles the acquainted sample seen in retail CFD markets, the place the majority of members lose cash.

A better examination reveals that almost all losses are comparatively small, whereas good points are closely concentrated amongst a small group of expert members who get the bulk of the upside.

Of the greater than 1.7 million addresses analyzed, over 1.1 million, representing 63.5% of all members, recorded realized losses between $0 and $1,000.

Losses Are Widespread, But Usually Limited

Severe losses do exist, however they’re uncommon. Only round 140 addresses recorded realized losses exceeding $1 million, indicating that excessive draw back is concentrated amongst a very small group of customers.

This distribution contrasts with narratives that body prediction markets as uniformly damaging for retail customers. Instead, the information factors to a system the place informal members lose small quantities whereas offering liquidity for extra superior merchants.

Where the imbalance turns into regarding is on the revenue facet. Fewer than 0.04% of all Polymarket addresses have greater than 70% of whole realized income, collectively incomes round $3.7 billion. These prime performers function at a scale and frequency that units them aside from the broader consumer base.

在超过 170 万个 Polymarket 全体交易地址中，获得已实现盈利的地址占比接近 30%；反过来说，~70% 的交易地址已实现亏损

一个更为扎心的现实是，不到 0.04% 的地址获得了超过 70% 的总已实现盈利，这些顶级地址累计已实现盈利高达 37 亿美元

绝大多数能够实现盈利的交易地址的盈利区间是 0 – 1,000… pic.twitter.com/jAj3SXsxVO— defioasis.eth (@defioasis) December 29, 2025

Most worthwhile customers earned little or no. Addresses with realized income between $0 and $1,000 account for twenty-four.56% of all merchants, but that they had simply 0.86% of whole income.

Breaking previous $1,000 in realized good points locations a dealer in the prime 4.9% of all addresses, highlighting how laborious the profitability curve turns into past informal participation.

Prediction Markets as Information Infrastructure

One neglected interpretation of the information is that Polymarket is more and more functioning as an data infrastructure. Casual merchants categorical opinions and sentiment by small bets, whereas subtle gamers extract worth by aggregating that data, managing danger, and arbitrage inefficiencies.

In this sense, losses amongst smaller customers could signify the value of participation in a market that repeatedly costs collective expectations. The small common loss dimension suggests customers are successfully paying for engagement, perception, or leisure.

An X consumer said losses had been inevitable, “Predicting sports activities occasions or cryptocurrency developments is just not simple. You should conduct a very in-depth evaluation of the occasions to make predictions, and even then, you should still lose cash.”

Additionally, the 70% loss charge aligns intently with figures disclosed by ESMA-regulated CFD brokers in Europe, the place 62% to 82% of retail accounts usually lose cash. The similarity signifies that prediction markets observe long-established patterns seen wherever retail circulate meets skilled buying and selling infrastructure.

As prediction markets develop alongside platforms comparable to Kalshi, these dynamics are more likely to intensify moderately than disappear.

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