XRP on exchanges hits 8 year low, but historical data exposes a brutal flaw in the popular “moon” narrative
Glassnode data exhibits that XRP’s alternate balances hit their lowest stage since 2018 in late December, sparking the typical wave of accumulation section hypothesis and “tight provide = moon” commentary.
While the eight-year low encompasses the total alternate ecosystem, CryptoQuant data for Binance gives a latest window into whether or not these troughs really precede rallies.
Binance’s XRP reserves dropped to roughly 2.6 billion by mid-December 2025, matching the July 2024 low, after peaking above 3.5 billion in early September.
The query is not whether or not provide thinned, but whether or not prior episodes of equally low Binance reserves preceded medium-term outperformance, or whether or not the sample is simply noise dressed up as sign.
First drawdown into the July 2024 low
After an early-year build-up from roughly 2.6 billion to simply over 3.0 billion XRP, Binance reserves rolled over round late March and floor decrease into early July, bottoming close to 2.7 billion.
According to the CryptoQuant chart, XRP traded roughly between $0.48 and $0.71 throughout the second quarter of 2024, averaging $0.56.
Through May, it drifted decrease into the low-to-mid $0.50s. By late June, it hugged simply above $0.50, with the native trough barely under that, round $0.48.
The explosive transfer from sub-$1 costs in October to roughly $2 by November and over $3 in January 2025 occurred months later, as soon as reserves had already climbed again above 3 billion.
Monthly closes jumped from about $0.51 in October 2024 to $1.94 in November, $2.08 in December, and $3.04 in January 2025.
The July 2024 low in reserves coincided with depressed value, but the large rally arrived solely after a lengthy lag and after alternate balances had re-expanded, not at the second of tightest provide.
Post-spike cooling with falling reserves
After the value spike in the fourth quarter of 2024, reserves on Binance sat above 3.2 billion XRP in October and November 2024, then trended down into early 2025, reaching roughly 2.8 billion by March.
That second clear tightening episode got here from elevated ranges quite than from a multi-year low. Price conduct was simple: it cooled off.
XRP closed round $2.08 in December 2024, peaked close to $3.04 in January 2025, then slipped again to roughly $2.09 between February and March, buying and selling in the low-$2s by means of spring.
As Binance reserves quietly bled decrease from post-rally highs, XRP largely misplaced altitude quite than breaking into a new leg greater. Tightening right here appeared like profit-taking and rotation into self-custody whereas the value corrected.
From September spike to multi-year lows
The most related tightening is the present one.
On Sept. 1, XRP reserves throughout main exchanges spiked higher by about 1.2 billion tokens in a single day. Binance’s share jumped from roughly 2.93 billion to three.54 billion XRP.
From October onward, the CryptoQuant chart exhibits that XRP provide reversed path. Binance reserves slid from about 3 billion in early October to roughly 2.7 billion by late November, then to round 2.6 billion by mid-December, the lowest stage since July 2024.
Over that very same window, XRP month-to-month closes drifted down from about $2.85 in September to $2.51 in October, $2.16 in November, and $2.03 in December.
That’s roughly a 30% value drawdown whereas provide on Binance was tightening. So far, this appears to be like far more like “tight provide plus weak tape” than a basic supply-squeeze rally.
The market has shifted cash off Binance into ETFs and self-custody, but the spot value has continued to bleed decrease into the $1.80-$2.00 vary.
What the sample exhibits and why it is perhaps completely different this time
Across the 2024-2025 window on the CryptoQuant chart, there are actually solely two true trough bands in Binance reserves at or close to at the moment’s ranges: July 2024, round 2.7 billion XRP, and the present zone, round 2.6-2.7 billion.
In between, reserves fell a couple of occasions from greater ranges, but these had been drawdowns from above 3 billion quite than contemporary lows.
In the second quarter of 2024, tightening into the July low first coincided with underperformance, adopted by a large rally months later, after balances had risen once more.
That’s an ambiguous bullish precedent at finest. In early 2025 and once more not too long ago, the sample is less complicated: reserves pattern down, and costs pattern down with them. Tight provide has not but changed into an apparent squeeze-style upside in the 30 to 90-day window.
So far, it is extra a story of decreased sell-side liquidity throughout a correction than a clear purchase sign.
The July 2024 trough occurred earlier than spot XRP ETFs existed.
The present drawdown happens in an setting the place ETFs have attracted over $1 billion in net inflows, with belongings underneath administration close to $1.25 billion and nil outflow days recorded by means of late 2025.
Those cash dwell in custodial wallets quite than on buying and selling venues, so some alternate shortage displays structural demand and plumbing, similar to ETF mechanics shifting cash off centralized order books, quite than pure accumulation by conviction consumers.
Whale conduct provides ambiguity. Supply distribution data exhibits large swings in giant XRP holder cohorts by means of 2025, together with intervals the place whales dumped hundreds of millions of tokens whilst ETFs purchased and alternate balances fell.
In the 2024-2025 Binance chart, each sustained tightening episode is adopted by both sideways-to-lower costs or a very delayed rally. The solely actual bullish trough case in July 2024 required buyers to take a seat by means of months of chop and a rebuild in alternate balances earlier than the large transfer.
That makes at the moment’s low-reserve studying attention-grabbing, but removed from a assured springboard.
Low alternate provide has been a obligatory but inadequate situation for XRP’s upside, and the data do not assist the hopium narrative that tight provide mechanically results in rallies.
What they do present is that when the subsequent catalyst hits, and it may be regulatory readability, institutional adoption, or a shift in macro sentiment, there shall be much less provide out there on exchanges to soak up demand. Whether that catalyst materializes in 30, 90, or 180 days stays unsure.
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