MicroStrategy’s Stock Slid Over 49% in 2025: Why 2026 Could Be Another Tough Year
Strategy (previously MicroStrategy) inventory (MSTR) had a tough 2025, declining 49.3% as sustained promoting strain drove shares to their lowest degree since late September 2024.
As 2026 begins, the outlook stays difficult, with the corporate dealing with rising uncertainty over a possible exclusion from the MSCI index as the choice deadline looms on January 15.
Why (Micro) Strategy’s Stock Struggled in 2025
2025 proved to be a tricky yr for the crypto market, and digital asset treasuries weren’t spared. The affect was fairly seen in the performance of Strategy’s stock.
Market information reveals that MSTR misplaced 49.3% of its worth in 2025, with losses accelerating in the second half of the yr.
Analyst Ted Pillows highlighted the size of the downturn, noting that MSTR has fallen 66% over the previous six months alone. According to Pillows, almost $90 billion has been wiped from the corporate’s market capitalization.
He pointed to a number of contributing elements, beginning with Bitcoin’s underwhelming price performance. The largest cryptocurrency ended 2025 down 5.7%, defying many bullish forecasts. The muted efficiency positioned substantial strain on Strategy’s inventory.
The firm is carefully tied to Bitcoin, being the most important company holder of the asset. It owns 672,497 BTC, equal to roughly 3.2% of Bitcoin’s complete provide.
As previously reported by BeInCrypto, Strategy has spent over $50 billion accumulating Bitcoin, primarily financed via debt issuance and inventory gross sales. In distinction, the corporate’s software program enterprise generates roughly $460 million in annual income, a determine that pales in comparability to its publicity to digital belongings.
While Strategy presently holds roughly $59 billion value of Bitcoin, its complete market capitalization stands at about $46 billion, elevating issues about valuation and steadiness sheet threat.
“It is buying and selling at a 20% to 25% low cost, roughly 20% to 25% under the worth of its underlying Bitcoin holdings,” Pillows said.
Besides BTC’s value, Pillows outlined a number of different elements, comparable to:
“Aggressive share dilution, index removing dangers, potential delisting strain, and a full collapse of the NAV premium.”
Despite this, the agency has continued to increase its Bitcoin publicity. In reality, Strategy has beforehand emphasised that its steadiness sheet is robust sufficient to face up to main downturns in Bitcoin’s value.
“If BTC drops to our $74,000 common price foundation, we nonetheless have 5.9x belongings to convertible debt, which we seek advice from because the BTC Rating of our debt. At $25,000 BTC, it will be 2.0x,” the agency posted.
MSCI Decision Poses a Key Risk for Strategy
While broader market circumstances stay topic to vary, Strategy faces a extra rapid structural problem tied to a pending MSCI determination.
MSCI has proposed reclassifying firms whose digital asset holdings exceed 50% of complete belongings as “funds.” This transfer may make them ineligible for inclusion in key fairness benchmarks.
For Strategy, the implications are important. A last determination, anticipated by January 15, may outcome in the corporate’s removing from MSCI indexes.
JPMorgan estimates that an MSCI exclusion may outcome in as much as $8.8 billion in outflows. This would exacerbate current stress on Strategy’s share value at a time when investor sentiment stays fragile. Thus, all consideration is now on the MSCI determination, as it could form Strategy’s near-term inventory efficiency.
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