Venezuela Attack: US Lawmaker To Introduce Prediction Market Bill Targeting Insider Trading
The US strike on Venezuela represents the most important headline occasion of the brand new yr up to now. In a number of developments spinning off this incident, Representative Ritchie Torres is reportedly shifting to introduce a invoice concentrating on insider buying and selling on prediction markets amid merchants’ netting heavy earnings on forecasted seize of President Nicolás Maduro.
The Push For Integrity In Prediction Markets
On January 3, US President Donald announced a profitable navy mission in Venezuela ensuing within the seize of President Maduro and his spouse, Cilia Flores. The Republican-led administration in Washington accuses Maduro and his partner of operating a “narco-terrorist group,” and each events have been arraigned to face costs of drug trafficking in New York.
Amid the quite a few condemnations and reactions to this transfer by the US authorities, there have been revelations of insider buying and selling across the occasion within the predictions market. Blockchain evaluation web page Lookonchain reports that three insider wallets positioned Polymarket bets on the seize of Maduro simply hours earlier than the assault.
Data reveals that these three wallets have been not too long ago created, funded, and solely positioned bets referring to Venezuela and Maduro’s seize to internet complete earnings valued at $630,848. The largest of those transactions got here from a dealer who invested $34,000 to file features of $409,900.
According to the founding father of PunchBowl News, Jake Sherman, Rep Ritchie Torres (D-N.Y.) goals to introduce a invoice that illegalizes this act amongst authorities officers and protects essential state-related data. The invoice, which might be titled the Public Integrity In Financial Prediction Markets Act of 2026, goals to ban all affiliated authorities individuals from taking part within the prediction market bets when uncovered to sure data.
Sherman states that the outline of the proposed legislation learn:
This invoice prohibits federal elected officers, political appointees, and Executive Branch workers from participating in sure transactions involving prediction market contracts after they both possess materials nonpublic data related to the transaction or might moderately receive such data by means of their official duties.
The restriction applies to purchasing, promoting, or exchanging prediction market contracts tied to authorities coverage, authorities motion, or political outcomes on platforms engaged in interstate commerce
Notably, prediction markets surged in late 2025 following rising Wall Street curiosity within the blockchain market infrastructure. Kalshi, which presently ranks as the most important prediction platform, is presently valued at $11 billion after a $1 billion fundraising in December.
Crypto Market Resilient Amid Venezuela Attack
In different information, the crypto market has proven no important damaging response to the US assault on Venezuelan soil. Over the final day, Bitcoin has moved by 2.13% to commerce at $91,414 as the entire crypto market cap climbed to $3.08 trillion.