Gemini Leader Shares His Top 5 Crypto Industry Predictions for 2026
Gemini Director of Institutional, Patrick Liou, says 2026 will mark a structural break for crypto markets. He predicts that long-held narratives round Bitcoin cycles, regulation, and capital flows are giving solution to a extra institutional and macro-driven regime.
In a set of 5 trade predictions shared this week, Liou outlined why 2026 may reshape how buyers, policymakers, and even sovereign states deal with Bitcoin and crypto infrastructure.
Bitcoin’s 4-Year Cycle is Dead
Liou argues that Bitcoin ending 2026 in damaging territory would invalidate the standard four-year cycle playbook.
Instead of the 75–90% drawdowns seen in prior cycles, Bitcoin is roughly 30% below its highs, reflecting a extra mature market construction.
That view aligns with current market conduct. ETF flows, derivatives depth, and institutional custody have absorbed provide shocks that when drove excessive boom-bust cycles.
Options markets additionally replicate this shift, with implied volatility holding within the 25–40% vary, nicely beneath historic peaks close to 80%.
As a outcome, Bitcoin now trades extra like a macro asset. BTC is now tied to liquidity and positioning resets moderately than a calendar-driven halving commerce.
2026 US Midterms Will See Bipartisan Crypto Support
The Gemini executive expects crypto to emerge as a bipartisan coverage focus forward of the 2026 US midterms.
While Republicans moved first in courting crypto voters, Democrats are more and more participating as market construction laws beneficial properties momentum.
That prediction matches current developments. The long-debated market construction invoice, or CLARITY Act, stays stalled however continues to advance by means of bipartisan negotiations.
Several analysts count on a Senate breakthrough in early 2026, with sufficient cross-party assist to bypass filibuster threat.
Also, crypto coverage is turning into a marketing campaign difficulty in swing states similar to Arizona, Georgia, and Michigan. Candidates from each events are beginning to deal with regulation, innovation, and investor safety.
More Crypto-Powered Prediction Markets
Liou sees crypto-powered prediction markets as a significant disruption in 2026, pushed by their means to mixture real-time data extra effectively than polls or forecasts.
This pattern is already seen. Polymarket’s development over the previous 12 months has drawn new entrants, together with exchange-backed and controlled platforms.
Several crypto companies like Coinbase have moved aggressively into prediction markets. The enlargement displays broader demand for market-based forecasting tied to politics, macro occasions, and financial outcomes.
Digital Asset Treasuries Will Merge to Survive
Liou predicts consolidation amongst digital asset treasuries (DATs) after a troublesome market cycle. Following a surge in DAT launches, many companies at the moment are buying and selling beneath the worth of their underlying crypto holdings, compressing NAV multiples.
Recent months have already proven stress throughout publicly listed crypto treasury autos, with sharp fairness underperformance, dilution threat, and balance-sheet pressure.
MicroStrategy, which is the most important Bitcoin treasury agency, skilled huge losses in This autumn 2025. MSTR inventory ended 2025 with a staggering 60% loss.
In 2026, easy buy-and-hold methods could now not be viable. This will push weaker gamers towards mergers or exits.
Nation State Sells Gold Reserve to Buy Bitcoin
Finally, the Gemini govt forecasts that not less than one nation-state will promote a part of its gold reserves to purchase Bitcoin. This will formalize BTC because the ‘Digital Gold.’
The thought is now not fringe. The US has already established a (*5*) by means of seized Bitcoin.
At the identical time, international locations similar to Germany, Sweden, and the Czech Republic have brazenly debated Bitcoin as a reserve asset.
For nations looking for diversification or lowered reliance on the greenback, Bitcoin’s portability and verifiability current a compelling different.
Overall, Liou’s predictions level to 2026 as a 12 months the place crypto’s subsequent part is formed much less by hype cycles and extra by establishments, coverage, and sovereign capital.
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