Google Officially Categorizes Prediction Markets as Finance, Not Gambling

Google introduced on Tuesday the search engine will start permitting regulated prediction markets to run Google Ads beginning Jan. 21, offered they adjust to strict coverage pointers and native legal guidelines. Perhaps extra importantly, the transfer means Google has formally categorized regulated prediction markets as monetary companies, not playing.

For an trade that has spent the final yr preventing the “playing” label in courtrooms, regulatory hearings, and on social media, it is a vital validation of how CFTC-regulated platforms wish to be seen. The Jan. 21 efficient date additionally means authorized exchanges might probably launch Google Ads for Super Bowl-related buying and selling markets.

Gambling, or not playing? That is the query

The prediction markets trade has existed in definitional limbo that shapes the whole lot from banking relationships to state-level authorized battles. The core dispute taking part in out throughout a number of lawsuits towards Kalshi and Robinhood comes all the way down to a single query: Are these monetary derivatives or playing contracts with higher branding?

The CFTC says they’re derivatives. Arizona’s Department of Gaming mentioned in its 2025 cease-and-desist letter that there’s “no significant distinction” between shopping for a sports activities consequence contract on Kalshi and inserting a guess with a sportsbook. State attorneys normal from Nevada to Connecticut have echoed comparable arguments.

Google, apparently, sides with the CFTC.

What Google’s coverage really says

The new coverage permits promoting just for CFTC-authorized Designated Contract Markets whose main enterprise is itemizing exchange-listed occasion contracts, plus NFA-registered brokerages offering entry to these merchandise. The language is exact: “exchange-listed occasion contracts” mirrors CFTC terminology for regulated derivatives.

Google’s documentation notes that references to the prediction market guidelines seem in each the Financial Services and Gambling and Games coverage sections. But the operational framework follows the monetary companies template: federal certification, compliance verification, standardized disclosure necessities. This differs meaningfully from Google’s playing insurance policies, which require country-by-country and sometimes state-by-state licensing that many operators battle to acquire.

The regulated prediction markets sector is now unified

The timing is important. Six months in the past, this coverage would have created a pointy aggressive asymmetry. Kalshi held DCM standing whereas Polymarket operated offshore, locked out of the U.S. market after a 2022 CFTC enforcement motion.

That is altering quick. Polymarket acquired QCX and QC Clearing, a CFTC-licensed derivatives trade and clearinghouse, for $112 million, after which secured an Amended Order of Designation from the CFTC on November 25. The approval permits Polymarket to function as a totally regulated U.S. trade by means of intermediated entry through futures fee retailers. The Polymarket US platform remains to be rolling out to waitlisted clients as it has been doing since late 2025. 

Both main prediction market platforms now maintain DCM standing. It’s affordable to anticipate each platforms (and lots of others) to qualify for Google adverts when the coverage takes impact. The trade enters 2026 with its two largest gamers working below the identical federal framework, competing on the identical promoting platform, validated by the identical categorization.

Also value noting, the coverage replace goes into impact two weeks earlier than the most important sporting occasion in North America — the 2026 Super Bowl. This additionally traces up effectively for DraftKings and FanDuel, each of which have lately launched their very own standalone prediction markets platforms. 

Who’s in, who’s out

Google’s coverage attracts a transparent line. On one facet: CFTC-authorized DCMs and NFA-registered brokerages. On the opposite: everybody else.

That “everybody else” consists of offshore prediction markets with out U.S. regulatory standing, crypto-native platforms that haven’t pursued DCM designation, and notably, state-licensed sportsbooks which may wish to market occasion contracts as prediction markets fairly than sports activities betting.

The coverage additionally explicitly prohibits promoting for “on-line playing markets regarding video games of probability or lotteries, or actions legally outlined as playing inside related jurisdictions and never permitted as regulated prediction markets below native legislation.” The language anticipates makes an attempt to blur the road between regulated derivatives and conventional playing merchandise.

While the flexibility to promote with Google is a big advertising win in and of itself, the legitimacy that comes from Google categorizing CFTC-regulated prediction markets as monetary merchandise, and never playing, might have even broader implications for prediction markets’ continued mainstream adoption. 

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