Why Morgan Stanley’s Bitcoin ETF Is The ‘Most Bullish Thing Ever’: Jeff Park
Morgan Stanley’s determination to file for spot Bitcoin and Solana ETFs caught even seasoned ETF watchers off guard and in Jeff Park’s telling, it’s a stronger sign about crypto’s subsequent leg of adoption than one other spherical of flows into the prevailing market leaders.
The shock wasn’t merely {that a} main wirehouse needs in. It was the branding and the timing. Bloomberg Intelligence ETF analyst James Seyffart said he “didn’t see this coming,” amplifying Eric Balchunas’ “SHOCKER” response to the filings. Seyffart then pointed to Matt Hougan’s framing of what made it uncommon: “Morgan Stanley manages 20 ETFs, however principally below the Calvert/Parametric/Eaton Vance manufacturers. These would be the third and 4th ETFs to bear the ‘Morgan Stanley’ model. Pretty exceptional.”
Park, the top of alpha methods at Bitwise and ProCap CIO, argues the late-cycle entry is exactly why the submitting issues. “It is unparalleled for a vanilla ETF product to launch two years after the primary to market has already secured the liquidity throne,” he wrote. “IAU famously tried a yr later, and by no means caught up.” Park’s level was that Morgan Stanley wouldn’t make that guess except inside channels have been flashing one thing the broader market nonetheless underestimates.
Why This Is ‘The Most Bullish Thing’ For Bitcoin
Park framed the submitting as a complete addressable market story, not a product story. “It means the market is MUCH larger than even crypto professionals anticipated, particularly to achieve NEW prospects,” he stated.
“This indicators that regardless of IBIT being the fastest ETF in history to achieve $80Bn in AUM (roughly 1/fifth the time it took for second place VOO), there may be sufficient untapped curiosity as viably researched and ascertained via MS’ proprietary wealth channels that they’re keen to guess {that a} branded product has industrial viability.” He completed that thought with the type of line that reads like a thesis assertion for 2026: “It means we’re nonetheless so early.”
The “why now” additionally matches with Seyffart’s longer-running view that institutional platforms would ultimately shift. “I’ve been saying for literal years that almost all of those corporations will change their tune on crypto,” he wrote. “But it actually was only a couple months in the past that Morgan Stanley advisors have been barred from shopping for crypto ETFs for his or her purchasers.” In different phrases: the timeline is compressing, and the posture is shifting from cautious entry to product possession.
Park’s second argument is that Morgan Stanley is treating Bitcoin as an identification product as a lot as an allocation sleeve. “It signifies that Bitcoin is ‘socially’ essential simply as a lot as it’s ‘financially’ essential as a product to supply to prospects,” he wrote.
“Consider the truth that for being ‘digital gold’ there are just about no branded gold ETFs in existence, but for Bitcoin there may be.” In his view, that distinction is the inform: a house-branded Bitcoin ETF isn’t solely about publicity, it’s about what the agency indicators to purchasers and recruits by having it in any respect.
Park argued the branding features as a credibility marker with a selected viewers in thoughts. “This is as a result of each asset supervisor is aware of that having a Bitcoin ETF communicates that they’re ahead considering, younger, and just a little edgy that permits concentrating on essentially the most difficult investor cohort that everybody needs to achieve: UHNW Independent Investors,” he stated.“
Morgan Stanley is making the guess that even when their ETF doesn’t scale to blockbuster success, there’s an intangible profit that can assist construct their clout.”
The third pillar is defensive: platform economics. “It is on the core a defensive transfer in opposition to platform disintermediation and price leakage,” Park wrote. “By launching their very own BTC ETF after IBIT already consolidated liquidity, Morgan Stanley is implicitly acknowledging a tough fact: DISTRIBUTION owns the client, not product superiority.”
He added why that issues strategically: “They aren’t going to let advisors default to 3rd events by outsourcing the financial lease. That’s why at first look whereas this launch appears irrational via a pure AUM lens, additionally completely inevitable via a PLATFORM ECONOMICS lens.”
That logic additionally surfaced in Seyffart’s trade with James Van Straten, who requested why anybody can be stunned if a agency has “personal distribution” and “large demand from purchasers.” Seyffart’s reply didn’t dispute demand; it underscored that Morgan Stanley traditionally “doesn’t do a ton of ETF launches,” and that the choice to take action right here is itself informative, even when, as he put it, “there’s loads of demand” for a lot of merchandise that platforms by no means trouble to fabricate.
On timing, Seyffart stated approval is “not less than 75 days from now,” emphasizing that 75 days may be the quickest doable path below present processes, but in addition that “there’s loads of merchandise that don’t launch proper at 75 days.”
At press time, Bitcoin traded at $91,256.
