Volume Report: Kalshi, Polymarket Post Record Volume Driven by Sports
In the primary full week of the brand new 12 months, Kalshi and Polymarket each posted yet one more weekly notional quantity file, largely pushed by a busy week of primetime soccer, with Kalshi sustaining its latest lead over Polymarket.
Weekly notional buying and selling quantity throughout main prediction markets totaled roughly $5.23 billion within the week ending Jan. 11, comparatively flat (down simply 1.6%) week over week from the late-December/early-January vacation peak of $5.32 billion.
Kalshi’s lead stays category-driven, which means market share will possible fluctuate largely based mostly on the sports activities calendar. Sports buying and selling accounted for a whopping 91.1% of Kalshi’s quantity (and 39.9% of Polymarket’s) final week. NFL playoffs will imply fewer video games every successive week, with every being primetime and driving considerably greater quantity than single regular-season video games. Expect the general sports activities quantity to peak with Super Bowl betting (Feb. 8), and decide again up for March Madness in mid-March.
For the week of Jan. 5-11:
- Kalshi notional quantity: ~$2.01 billion (+1.7% WoW)
- Polymarket notional quantity: ~$1.50 billion (+4.1% WoW)
- Opinion notional quantity: ~$1.60 billion (-11.7% WoW)
The information, originating from Dune Data Dashboards and tracked by DeFiRate.com, consists of high on-chain platforms in addition to the main CFTC-regulated alternate, Kalshi. Note that not all prediction platforms are at present tracked by Dune.
Major platforms by the numbers (Week ending Jan. 11)
Below is a comparability of the weekly notional quantity and transactions throughout the platforms Dune is monitoring.
| Platform | Notional Volume ($) | WoW Change | Transactions | WoW Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | $2,012,006,557 | 1.7% | 11,083,631 | 16.6% |
| Opinion | $1,597,197,928 | −11.7% | 683,346 | −61.7% |
| Polymarket | $1,503,807,692 | 4.1% | 11,403,093 | 26.8% |
| PredictIt | $108,892,161 | 51.8% | 110,950 | 68.1% |
| Limitless | $8,967,549 | −19.7% | 154,102 | −40.8% |
| Myriad | $1,845,727 | −33.8% | 166,756 | 50.2% |
| Total | $5,232,717,614 | −1.6% | 23,601,878 | 3.6% |
Compared with the prior week, Kalshi and Polymarket each notched small will increase to put up their greatest respective weeks thus far. However, they each confirmed a lot bigger WoW will increase in transactions, indicating an general development towards smaller common commerce sizes.
- Polymarket: ~11.4 million (+16.6%)
- Kalshi: ~11.1 million (+26.8%)
Polymarket’s decrease common commerce measurement (quantity per transaction) might mirror, partly, the larger reputation of short-term, fast-settling crypto markets which make up a good portion of Polymarket’s buying and selling exercise and quantity.
While Kalshi and Polymarket are displaying regular quantity patterns, the on-chain platforms are way more risky from week to week. Opinion, for example, dropped 11.7% in weekly notional quantity, however noticed a drop of 61.7% in transactions. The Opinion Labs alternate continues to indicate a a lot totally different sample in comparison with its mainstream rivals, with a lot greater common trades throughout fewer customers general.
Category information: Sports rule however crypto and politics nonetheless robust
The chart beneath reveals market class comparability at Kalshi and Polymarket. Note that the 2 use barely totally different categorical group, so these aren’t precisely 1:1 comparisons. (For instance, Kalshi separates “Mention Markets” into their very own class; Polymarket does the identical for “Trump Markets.”)
Kalshi high classes (Jan. 5-11)
Sports nonetheless dominate at Kalshi, to the tune of 91.1% of whole notional quantity for the previous week. This is not any shock contemplating a weekend stuffed with primetime NFL video games (wildcard weekend) and the school soccer playoffs semi-final video games this previous week.
Polymarket high classes (Jan. 5-11)
Polymarket’s quantity is way extra diversified, with sports activities, crypto, and politics all clearing significant double-digit shares. The standalone “Trump” class alone rivals total verticals on different platforms. The identical class is mirrored inside “politics” on Kalshi, a class that’s clearly extra dominant in Polymarket’s general class combine.
Sports markets rule U.S. prediction markets no less than for now
Kalshi’s market share dominance at this level is probably going cyclical, based mostly on the sports activities calendar. But that’s to not say the platform’s different buying and selling classes received’t develop considerably within the coming months, particularly as midterm election season ramps up.
Both Kalshi and Polymarket are additionally more likely to proceed to indicate long-term development throughout buying and selling subjects as prediction markets develop into embedded even additional into mainstream consciousness and information/politics reporting.
For now, nevertheless, quantity information traits clearly sign disproportionate reliance on sports activities markets, notably amongst U.S.-based CFTC-regulated exchanges. That consists of Polymarket US, which nonetheless solely provides sports activities markets, although the location guarantees “extra polymarkets coming quickly.”
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