Bitcoin Futures Flush 31% Of Open Interest As Bottom Thesis Takes Shape
Bitcoin’s derivatives market is exhibiting indicators of a reset after a speculative 2025, with Binance open curiosity falling greater than 31% from an October peak as futures-led promoting strain cools, a mixture CryptoQuant contributor Darkfost argues typically coincides with significant cycle lows.
In a collection of posts on X, Darkfost mentioned 2025’s leverage build-up was fueled by document exercise on Binance, the place futures buying and selling volumes “exceeded $25T,” serving to push Bitcoin open interest (OI) to an all-time high “of over $15B on October 6.”
“To put this into perspective, in the course of the earlier bull cycle in November 2021, when Bitcoin hit its ATH, open curiosity on Binance peaked at $5.7B,” Darkfost wrote. “In different phrases, OI almost tripled in 2025. Since that peak, open curiosity has dropped by greater than 31%, stabilizing at the moment round $10B.”
Darkfost framed the transfer as a deleveraging section that intensified amid “large liquidations,” with OI slipping under its 180-day transferring common, a situation the analyst says has traditionally mattered greater than the uncooked stage of leverage.
“These deleveraging intervals are essential, as they assist purge the surplus leverage constructed up out there,” Darkfost wrote. “Historically, they’ve typically marked vital bottoms, successfully resetting the market and making a stronger base for a possible bullish restoration.”
The logic is easy: when leverage is pressured out, the market can grow to be much less susceptible to cascade-style liquidations and reflexive promoting. In that sense, a decrease OI surroundings can scale back the marginal influence of futures positioning on spot, a minimum of in contrast with the late-stage “crowded commerce” situations that precede sharp drawdowns.
But Darkfost warned {that a} deleveraging sign isn’t the identical factor as a confirmed backside. “This might be the case once more, however warning is warranted,” the analyst wrote, including that if Bitcoin “continues to slip and totally enters a bear market,” OI might “contract additional,” pointing to “deeper deleveraging and a possible extension of the correction.”
Bitcoin Sellers Are Losing Momentum
Alongside the open curiosity reset, Darkfost pointed to a pointy drop in futures-driven promoting strain, utilizing Net Taker Volume — a measure supposed to seize who’s dominating futures order books.
“Selling strain on BTC coming from the futures market is sharply declining,” Darkfost wrote, noting that after the month-to-month common hit “–$489M” at its peak, the determine has now been “divided by ten.” “At the second, sellers nonetheless barely dominate the order books, with –$51M,” the analyst added.
The key nuance is that the indicator has not flipped, however it’s transferring in that path. “We haven’t but returned to optimistic territory, however we’re getting nearer,” Darkfost wrote. “It may be very encouraging to see merchants beginning to change their strategy, particularly given the numerous influence futures volumes have on value motion. Notably, since this decline in promoting strain started, BTC value motion has additionally stabilized.”
For the “backside thesis” to graduate right into a extra forceful reversal name, Darkfost anchored the set off to that sign change: “If Net Taker Volume had been to show optimistic once more, it could clearly ignite the fuse for a bullish reversal.”
At press time, BTC traded at $95,131.
