Forget silver, Copper’s AI-fueled explosion exposes a “higher for longer” trap that most crypto traders are ignoring
Copper hit a new report high this week as crypto traders targeted on the surge in silver and gold. However, copper’s rise might really shift the speed path that underpins the market’s liquidity narrative.
The all-time high for copper is now around $6.06 per pound as of Wednesday, Jan. 14.
Futures exercise has tracked the value transfer in methods that complicate the concept of a one-session burst.
An COMEX update posted Jan. 15, 2026, reported estimated quantity of 74,332 contracts, down from 83,265.
Open curiosity rose to 269,825, up 3,588.
| Market | Timestamp (ET) | Estimated quantity | Open curiosity |
|---|---|---|---|
| COMEX copper futures | Jan. 15, 2026, 10:00 a.m. | 74,332 (down from 83,265 prior session) | 269,825 (up 3,630) |
Crypto markets don’t value copper immediately, but copper’s proximity to data can feed a cross-asset “the whole lot up” framing.
Gold and silver have made related strikes, however most of the eye remains to be parked on the same old “safe-haven” commerce.
Copper is the one flying below the radar, and that issues as a result of it’s much less about concern and extra about real-world demand, the place any signal of persistent value stress can feed straight into price expectations and, by extension, crypto liquidity.
Copper’s climb might reprice inflation expectations, and crypto liquidity
That framing sharpens the talk round how persistent inflation might be, the place actual charges are headed, and the way quickly the Fed can ease coverage, all elements that additionally form the outlook for Bitcoin (BTC).
That debate has stayed unresolved within the Fed’s personal messaging.
Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari said inflation may very well be round 2.5% by the tip of 2026, then added, “The query is, is it going to be two and a half p.c by the tip of the yr…? I do not know”.
Rates expectations for 2026 have additionally turn out to be much less settled in market commentary, which issues for bitcoin and different liquid tokens that can commerce as long-duration threat when actual yields transfer.
Rate cuts in 2026 looked like a foregone conclusion earlier, whereas including that J.P. Morgan Chief Economist Michael Feroli mentioned he doesn’t count on the Fed to make any cuts this yr.
Copper’s AI-fueled rally runs into Fed uncertainty
Copper’s rally intersects with a company procurement story tied to AI infrastructure buildouts.
The Wall Street Journal reported Amazon signed a two-year settlement with Rio Tinto associated to the Nuton/Johnson Camp copper challenge.
The report positioned the deal within the context of report copper costs, provide issues, and information heart demand.
For crypto, the near-term translation is much less about copper as a hedge and extra about how a commodity-led inflation story can alter the anticipated path of economic circumstances.
If copper energy is learn as demand holding up whereas provide stays constrained, traders can convey ahead “greater for longer” eventualities, which might stress leverage and weaken the bid for duration-sensitive threat.
That can occur even when spot flows and protocol-specific catalysts complicate the connection throughout large-cap tokens corresponding to Ethereum (ETH).
If disinflation resumes into late 2026, Kashkari’s personal uncertainty leaves room for easing expectations to re-enter costs.
That can loosen up real-rate stress that has been a recurring headwind for crypto.
COMEX indicators reveal shifting cross-asset positioning and threat urge for food
The COMEX snapshot additionally carries a narrower lesson for cross-asset positioning.
Open curiosity rising as quantity fell, can align with traders protecting publicity on fairly than biking by one-day momentum.
Open curiosity alone, nevertheless, can’t separate new longs from new shorts with out extra positioning information.
For now, copper’s record-high zone is appearing as a stay check of whether or not “actual economic system” tightness or a softer inflation observe dominates the 2026 charges narrative.
Traders trying for affirmation might be compelled again to the identical scoreboard throughout property: copper’s stage relative to its January peak on Trading Economics and the Fed’s tolerance for inflation outcomes that should still land above goal by year-end.
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