Trump just broke from his tariff threat playbook for the first time causing Bitcoin to miss Sunday night relief rally
On Monday morning, the market did that factor it all the time does when politics stops being background noise and begins grabbing the steering wheel.
Screens went crimson, chats full of the similar half-jokes about “macro,” and Bitcoin slipped again beneath the psychological ranges merchants had just spent the weekend defending. The headline threat had a well-known scent, tariffs, allies, a threat timed for most consideration, and just sufficient ambiguity to maintain leverage on edge.
This time the spark got here from Greenland.
Over the weekend, President Donald Trump escalated his strain marketing campaign towards European allies who oppose U.S. efforts to purchase the territory, floating a 10% tariff that will start on February 1, with a threat to elevate it additional later this 12 months.
By Monday, markets had been not treating it as an offhand comment. U.S. futures slid, European indices fell, and the story mutated from geopolitical theatre into an actual commerce shock that might spill throughout threat belongings.
For crypto merchants, the temper shift felt private. Plenty of desks nonetheless keep in mind October, when tariff headlines helped set off certainly one of the nastiest liquidation cascades of the cycle, the type that empties out leverage and leaves even good positions trying silly for 48 hours.
That reminiscence has been sitting quietly in the background, ready for the subsequent excuse.
Then the excuse arrived, with a letter.
In Davos, BBC’s coverage and wider reporting circulated that Trump despatched a word to Norway’s prime minister linking Greenland to the Nobel Peace Prize, suggesting that, as a result of he had not been awarded the prize, he might justify taking a tougher posture.
The text of the message additionally moved by way of diplomatic channels, in accordance to reporting attributed to a number of officers.
Dear Jonas: Considering your Country determined not to give me the Nobel Peace Prize for having stopped 8 Wars PLUS, I not really feel an obligation to suppose purely of Peace, though it’ll all the time be predominant, however can now take into consideration what is sweet and correct for the United States of America. Denmark can not shield that land from Russia or China, and why have they got a “proper of possession” anyway? There are not any written paperwork, it’s solely {that a} boat landed there tons of of years in the past, however we had boats touchdown there, additionally. I’ve performed extra for NATO than some other particular person since its founding, and now, NATO ought to do one thing for the United States. The World isn’t safe except we’ve Complete and Total Control of Greenland. Thank you! President DJT.
It sounded ridiculous, but it landed with weight as a result of officers verified it was actual, and it gave markets one thing they hate: a story that may escalate with out warning.
That is the half that issues.
The “tariff cycle” and the Greenland episode
Back in October, a post from The Kobeissi Letter laid out what it referred to as an investor playbook for tariff episodes, a rinse-and-repeat sequence of cryptic threats, panic promoting, weekend rhetoric, a Sunday night futures pop, and the gradual crawl towards a deal that lets markets breathe once more.
| Step | What occurs | What to watch for |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Trump posts a cryptic tariff warning geared toward a rustic or sector, markets drift decrease | Vague language, no numbers but, threat belongings soften, crypto funding begins to cool |
| 2 | Trump publicizes a big tariff charge, markets dump exhausting, weak positions get shaken out | A particular proportion, fast spike in volatility, liquidations improve |
| 3 | Dip patrons step in, a head-fake rally types, then recent lows seem, sensible cash begins shopping for | Bounce on low conviction, then a second leg down with higher bid help |
| 4 | After Friday’s shut, Trump doubles down on tariffs to apply strain | Weekend escalation, posts or statements timed after market hours |
| 5 | On Saturday, the tariff goal responds or feedback | Official rebuttals, retaliation discuss, counter-tariff hints |
| 6 | On Sunday, earlier than futures open, Trump posts that he’s engaged on an answer | “Working on it,” “productive talks,” “deal doable,” softening language |
| 7 | Futures open sharply increased Sunday night, then lose momentum into Monday’s open | Gap up at 6pm ET, fade into money open, uneven risk-on try |
| 8 | After Monday’s open, Treasury Secretary Bessent seems on reside TV and reassures traders | Media hit from Treasury, tone and phrasing matter, reassurance vs justification |
| 9 | Over the subsequent 2–4 weeks, administration officers tease a commerce deal | “Framework,” “constructive,” “ongoing talks,” leaks to pleasant retailers |
| 10 | Trump publicizes a brand new commerce deal, shares hit a report high | Photo-op announcement, relief rally, threat belongings re-rate increased |
| 11 | Cycle repeats from Step #1 | New goal, new sector, similar sequence of headlines and volatility |
The query immediately is easy, the place are we in that loop now, and does the loop even maintain up?
If you strip out the social media bravado and have a look at the form of the week, Greenland matches the early a part of the Kobeissi framework virtually too cleanly.
Friday introduced the preliminary threat, Trump saying he might hike tariffs on international locations that refuse to “associate with” the Greenland push.
Over the weekend, the threat hardened into specifics, a ten% tariff starting February 1, geared toward eight European international locations, with a path to the next charge later in the 12 months if there isn’t any deal.
The goal international locations pushed again, and the backlash turned a part of the commerce story, not a facet word.
In London, Prime Minister Keir Starmer warned {that a} commerce conflict is in nobody’s curiosity, and defended Greenland’s proper, alongside Denmark, to decide its personal future. Across Europe, officers mentioned retaliation instruments and the way far they had been prepared to go if the tariffs moved from threat to coverage.
Then, on Monday, the diplomatic curveball was delivered: the Nobel letter, which widened the story from a tariff spat right into a query about intent and credibility.
At the similar time, the market tape refused to play together with the neatest a part of Kobeissi’s “playbook.”
The mannequin assumes that by Sunday night the White House tends to dangle an answer, and futures leap, solely to fade into the Monday open. That pop is the strain launch valve.
We didn’t get that.
Instead, U.S. futures, and subsequently Bitcoin, sank into Monday on the tariff threat.
That’s why, in case you’re forcing this Greenland episode right into a numbered step, the cleanest reply is that we’re nonetheless sitting in the “goal responds” section, the a part of the cycle the place allies push again, officers posture, and markets commerce the uncertainty.
In different phrases, Step 5 power.
There is a element that complicates it additional, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent did seem on TV, which in Kobeissi’s sequence is the second the administration reassures traders after the Monday open.
But the reporting round Bessent immediately is extra about justification than reassurance, arguing that Europe is just too weak to assure Greenland’s safety. That type of message extends the standoff, it doesn’t calm it.
So sure, the “Treasury on TV” second confirmed up, the calming operate didn’t.
What crypto merchants noticed, and why it mattered
Bitcoin doesn’t want a geopolitical motive to be risky, it will possibly try this by itself, but it surely reacts badly when the world shifts into risk-off mode and leverage is leaning the improper method.
On Monday, Bitcoin slid to round $92,500 in early buying and selling as the tariff threat hit sentiment. The transfer was a pointy, quick drop that took a number of thousand {dollars} off the value in a brief window.
Whether you name it worry or positioning, what merchants had been actually responding to was the feeling that the scenario had no off-ramp but.
That is why the October comparability retains coming again. In October 2025, tariff headlines round China helped set off a brutal unwind that merchants nonetheless reference as the second the market realized, once more, how fragile leverage could be.
Today’s promoting is smaller in magnitude, and the market construction is completely different, however the emotional sample rhymes, merchants see a headline that may broaden, they keep in mind what liquidation appears to be like like, and so they begin trimming threat earlier than another person forces them to.
Does the thesis maintain up
Kobeissi framed the tariff cycle as an “precise playbook.” Greenland is a stress take a look at for that declare.
The thesis holds up as a method to describe how fashionable markets digest Trump’s tariff drama, first the threat, then the panic, then the weekend amplification, then the scramble for a “answer” headline that lets positioning rebuild.
It breaks down when it pretends the de-escalation all the time arrives on time.
Greenland has not supplied that clear de-escalation beat but, primarily as a result of the material is a rustic’s sovereignty slightly than pure macroeconomics.
Instead, the narrative escalated right into a diplomatic letter that European leaders are taking severely, and the administration’s messaging, together with through Bessent, has leaned exhausting into justification.
That issues as a result of markets commerce the path, not the punchline. A playbook constructed round a predictable Sunday-night relief rally will depend on somebody selecting relief.
Right now, the strain is the level.
The label for this second, and the two triggers to watch
The cleanest label for Monday is easy.
Escalation with out the Sunday off ramp.
If the cycle goes to snap again into one thing acquainted, the off-ramp has to seem after the truth, as a result of the Sunday futures second has already come and gone, and it got here in the improper course. futures
From right here, two issues matter.
- A reputable de-escalation sign in the subsequent few days, one thing particular, not vibes, not “we’re excited about it,” an actual line about talks, delays, scope modifications, or circumstances that soften the February 1 path. Markets can reside with battle, they wrestle with open-ended timelines.
- The tape has to affirm that the panic has peaked. That appears to be like like a reversal that holds by way of the U.S. money session, with threat belongings stabilising as an alternative of whipsawing, and crypto cooling off with out one other compelled unwind. You don’t want a rally to know leverage is clearing, you want value motion that stops behaving like it’s one headline away from breaking.
If we do get the basic “Sunday night relief” transfer, it is not going to be the one we just missed, it will likely be the subsequent one, the subsequent weekend the place an answer headline arrives earlier than futures open and offers merchants permission to reprice the threat.
Until then, we’re in the section the place headlines do the injury, and the market spends the remainder of the day making an attempt to work out whether or not the injury is non permanent.
For anybody who lived by way of October’s liquidation shock, that call by no means feels summary. It looks like a finger hovering over the shut button, and a timeline which may change with one submit, one interview, or one letter that appears like parody and arrives as coverage. letter
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