XRP Market Structure Resembles That Of February 2022, Glassnode Warns
Glassnode says XRP is slipping again right into a cost-basis configuration final seen in February 2022, with newer patrons accumulating at ranges that go away a previous cohort “high” more and more underwater, an on-chain setup that may form promote stress round key worth zones.
In a note shared Monday through X, the analytics agency pointed to a rotation in realized costs by age band. “The present market construction for XRP intently resembles February 2022,” Glassnode wrote. It added that “psychological stress on high patrons builds over time,” framing the present tape as one the place endurance is being examined quite than rewarded.
What This Means For XRP Price
The agency’s core remark is that wallets lively within the short-term window, roughly the 1-week to 1-month cohort, are accumulating under the cost basis of holders within the 6-month to 12-month band. In apply, which means newer demand is stepping in at costs which are cheaper than what a significant slice of mid-term holders paid.
That relationship issues as a result of cohorts are inclined to behave in a different way when worth revisits their value foundation. When spot trades under a cohort’s realized worth, that cohort is, on common, underwater. If the market rallies again towards that degree, a few of that provide can change into desperate to de-risk into breakeven, creating overhead liquidity that may cap upside till it’s absorbed.
Glassnode’s “Realized Price by Age” chart (7-day shifting common) visualizes this dynamic by plotting cohort realized costs towards spot. The standout function is the hole between shorter-term and 6–12 month value bases throughout the newest consolidation, echoing the agency’s February 2022 comparability.
With XRP worth once more buying and selling barely under the $2 mark, a publish by Glassnode from Nov. 24 2025 additionally comes again into focus. Glassnode quoted this outdated X publish wherein it singled out $2 as the extent the place this cohort stress has been most seen in flows. “The $2.0 degree stays a serious psychological zone for Ripple holders,” the agency stated. “Since early 2025, every retest of $2 noticed $0.5B–$1.2B per week in losses,” a reminder that many holders have been exiting at a loss as worth revisits that deal with.
Those realized loss estimates are a key qualifier: they recommend that $2 is not just a chart level, however a habits degree, the place spending choices change and the place capitulation (or compelled de-risking) can cluster.
Notably, in February 2022, XRP put in a pointy round-trip: after slipping to about $0.6034 on Feb. 2, it ripped greater to the month’s peak close to $0.8758 on Feb. 8, then rolled over into the again half of the month as macro danger accelerated. Then, XRP was again round $0.70 by Feb. 23–24 (roughly 20% off the Feb. 8 high), earlier than bouncing into month-end close to $0.7856 on Feb. 28.
The late-month downdraft coincided with the Russia–Ukraine escalation and the Feb. 24 invasion, which hit danger property broadly and pushed main crypto decrease intraday, in step with the risk-off impulse seen throughout the whole crypto market.
At press time, XRP traded at $1.9294.