Glassnode Flags XRP Structure Matching Feb 2022 Pre-Crash Setup
Blockchain analytics agency Glassnode warned on Monday that XRP’s on-chain market construction mirrors the precise cost-basis configuration noticed earlier than a 60% value collapse in 2022.
XRP is buying and selling at $1.91, down 4.74% up to now 24 hours.
The sign facilities on the holder’s price foundation. Wallets lively within the 1-week to 1-month window at the moment are accumulating under the realized value of the 6-month to 12-month cohort. Newer consumers maintain at cheaper entry factors whereas mid-term holders sit underwater or close to breakeven.
This relationship creates overhead provide. When spot approaches the mid-term cohort’s price foundation, that group turns into desirous to de-risk into any rally. February 2022 confirmed the outcome: XRP ran from $0.60 to $0.88 within the first week, then collapsed 60% to $0.30 by mid-year following the Terra implosion and broader macro deterioration.
The $2 Behavioral Threshold
Glassnode recognized $2.00 as a degree above the technical degree. According to the agency’s November 2025 evaluation, every retest of $2 since early 2025 triggered $500 million to $1.2 billion in weekly realized losses. Holders persistently capitulated into energy at this zone.
XRP breached $2.40 in early January, up 25% in per week. It has since retreated under $2.00. The sample is acquainted. The token is now buying and selling under its 20-, 50-, 100-, and 200-day shifting averages.
The Counter-Data
Positive indicators exist. XRP ETFs have absorbed $1.37 billion in cumulative inflows since their November 2025 launch, with 35 consecutive buying and selling days and not using a single outflow, adopted by a modest $40.8 million redemption on January 7. Total AUM sits close to $2 billion with over 788 million XRP locked in custody.
Exchange reserves dropped from 3.76 billion XRP in early October 2025 to roughly 1.6 billion by late December, the bottom since 2018. ETF creations require spot purchases, which take away tokens from the out there float.
Yet, inflows haven’t prevented drawdowns. XRP fell 15% in December regardless of report institutional shopping for. Exchange steadiness knowledge reveals 206 million XRP (roughly $430 million) moved onto platforms since January started, indicating distribution.
What Desks Are Watching
The February 2022 analog raises a selected query: can ETF-driven provide absorption offset the capitulation mechanics that Glassnode describes? Back then, no spot ETF product existed. Retail holders folded underneath macro stress with no institutional bid to soak up provide.
This cycle is structurally completely different. Five main issuers (Canary Capital, Bitwise, Franklin Templeton, Grayscale, 21Shares) serve pension funds and endowments. Their constant accumulation has tightened circulating float, and every $1 billion in inflows locks roughly 500 million XRP. But the hole between mid-term and short-term price bases stays.
If $2.00 fails to carry, the 6-12 month cohort enters deeper loss territory. The $1.80 help degree turns into the subsequent line of help. Failure there opens draw back towards $1.25, the deeper help zone recognized by analysts. A sustained break above $2.40 would invalidate the bearish setup and shift focus towards $3.00 resistance.
The publish Glassnode Flags XRP Structure Matching Feb 2022 Pre-Crash Setup appeared first on Cryptonews.
