Portugal Blocks Polymarket Following Presidential Election Trading Surge

Portugal’s gaming regulators are shifting ahead with plans to order the nation’s web service suppliers to dam entry to crypto-native prediction market platform Polymarket. The order got here following reviews of enormous buying and selling quantity in Polymarket’s Portuguese presidential election markets.  

Two days earlier than the Jan. 18 election, Portugal’s playing regulatory physique, Serviço de Regulação e Inspeção de Jogos (SRIJ), gave Polymarket 48 hours to voluntarily block entry to the platform within the nation. On Jan. 19, the SRIJ stated it was continuing with its ISP blocking order, according to reporting from Rádio Renascença. 

The Portuguese information outlet confirmed with SRIJ officers that they grew to become conscious of Polymarket “very lately” and think about it unlawful in Portugal. Portuguese regulation solely permits for on-line and retail sports activities betting, on-line and brick-and-mortar on line casino playing, and betting on horse races. All gaming operators should be licensed by the SRIJ. 

“The website doesn’t have any authorization to make bets obtainable in Portugal, and within the nationwide authorized order isn’t allowed the exploitation of bets on occasions or political occasions, whether or not nationwide or worldwide,” SRIJ instructed Radio Renascença.

Polymarket was nonetheless broadly accessible within the nation on Jan. 20, however on Jan. 21, Portuguese enterprise and monetary information outlet ECO confirmed that telecommunications firm Vodafone Portugal had blocked entry to the prediction market platform in response to the SRIJ order. ECO’s report additionally stated that Polymarket’s high competitor, Kalshi, which additionally had markets for the Portuguese presidential election (albeit with far much less buying and selling quantity), stays accessible within the nation.

Presidential trades elevate ‘insider buying and selling’ suspicions 

Radio Renascença’s reporting on the Polymarket restrictions additionally raised suspicions of doable “insider buying and selling,” indicating somebody with early, private data might have tilted the chances within the Portuguese election market with particularly giant trades. 

The day earlier than the election, Polymarket merchants gave Socialist Party candidate António José Seguro roughly 75% odds of successful, whereas João Cotrim de Figueiredo, chief of the Iniciativa Liberal social gathering, had round a 16% likelihood. Hours earlier than the outcomes had been made public, Cotrim de Figueiredo’s possibilities collapsed to 2.5% and Seguro’s rose to round 95% with over €4 million in last-minute trades, in keeping with Radio Renascença.

The first-round results imply a runoff is required, as no candidate within the crowded subject obtained the required 50% of the vote. Seguro led with 31% of the vote, whereas far-right candidate André Ventura (whose Polymarket odds of successful had been at round 5% the day earlier than the election) secured round 23.5%. The two will face off in one other spherical of voting on Feb. 8 to find out the winner. Cotrim, who completed third with round 16% of the vote, is not going to transfer ahead. 

Polymarket’s Portugal Presidential Election market stays open, pending the outcomes of the following voting spherical. The market exhibits that there was greater than $121 million traded, which is comparatively substantial. It’s unclear how most of the trades originated in Portugal as a result of Polymarket data pockets exercise on a pseudonymous blockchain and doesn’t publicly present geolocation knowledge. 

Political occasion contracts have raised issues in U.S. 

Polymarket has confronted comparable accusations of suspicious buying and selling exercise earlier than. Most lately, in early January, one nameless account on the platform made greater than $400,000 betting on Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro’s elimination hours earlier than a U.S. navy operation resulted in his seize. The trades sparked widespread scrutiny over the opportunity of inside data getting used. 

In response to the Maduro trades, U.S. Rep. Ritchie Torres introduced the Public Integrity in Financial Prediction Markets Act of 2026, laws aimed toward stopping authorities officers and workers from utilizing materials non‑public data to commerce on prediction markets. The invoice would bar federally elected officers, political appointees, and government department workers from shopping for, promoting, or buying and selling prediction market contracts linked to authorities coverage or political outcomes.

Notably, the Portugal election and Maduro seize trades occurred on Polymarket’s worldwide platform, which isn’t accessible to U.S. merchants. Polymarket’s U.S. platform, which operates underneath Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) oversight, soft-launched late final yr and nonetheless solely provides sports activities occasion contract buying and selling.  

Election prediction markets have come underneath fireplace beforehand within the U.S. Under the Biden‑period CFTC, regulators initially pushed again on occasion contracts tied to U.S. political outcomes. Kalshi sued after the company moved to dam election‑associated contracts and a federal judge ruled in Kalshi’s favor in late 2024. The CFTC appealed, however in May 2025 the agency abruptly dropped the case, successfully conceding that election final result contracts may very well be provided underneath federal oversight and ending practically two years of authorized battle over whether or not the regulator had authority to ban them.

Polymarket has confronted different worldwide geoblocks in previous yr

Polymarket has repeatedly drawn regulatory scrutiny around the globe, with a number of international locations both formally ordering ISPs to dam the platform or requesting that Polymarket limit entry, primarily on account of alleged violations of nationwide playing legal guidelines or issues over unlicensed buying and selling exercise.

Countries which have sought to limit entry to Polymarket in simply the previous yr embrace:

• Belgium’s playing regulator formally blacklisted Polymarket as an unlawful playing web site after warnings over non‑compliance, which led to ISPs blocking the positioning within the nation.
• Poland’s Ministry of Finance added Polymarket to its register of illegal gambling domains, shifting to geoblock entry on the premise that the platform operates unlicensed playing actions.
• The Gambling Regulatory Authority of Singapore ordered local ISPs to dam entry to Polymarket, citing its operation as an unlicensed playing platform underneath the nationwide Gambling Control Act.
• Thailand’s authorities moved to restrict Polymarket as a part of broader anti‑playing and cryptocurrency regulatory enforcement.
• Romania’s National Office for Gambling blacklisted Polymarket as a prohibited operator, citing unlicensed playing operations after a evaluation of heavy election‑associated buying and selling quantity.
• Ukraine’s National Commission for the Regulation of Electronic Communications issued a formal resolution ordering ISPs to dam entry to Polymarket, treating the platform as an unlicensed playing operator underneath nationwide regulation. 

Polymarket maintains a global geoblocking list that exhibits jurisdictions the place entry is restricted on account of playing regulation compliance, worldwide sanctions, or different regulatory issues. Prior to 2025, international locations like Germany, Italy, France, and the U.Ok. had been included on Polymarket’s excluded international locations checklist.

DeFi Rate requested remark from Polymarket on the Portuguese determination and the corporate’s customary coverage when receiving such requests from nationwide authorities, however we didn’t obtain a response previous to publication.

Liquidity and entry in danger as restrictions unfold

Even for merchants exterior of restricted international locations, the rising checklist of nationwide blocks can have implications. Each new geoblock can scale back total liquidity on Polymarket, making markets thinner and doubtlessly extra risky, whereas additionally growing uncertainty about the place the platform can legally function. For Polymarket, the increasing patchwork of restrictions complicates progress, compliance, and consumer acquisition, at the same time as worldwide curiosity in election and political markets continues to surge.

As prediction markets achieve visibility, Polymarket’s persevering with entry removals in numerous international locations underscore the strain between decentralized, world buying and selling platforms and nationwide laws (notably round politically delicate occasions), elevating questions on how far governments will go to guard their current regulatory infrastructure and stop perceived market manipulation. 

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