Polymarket Installs Jump 1,200% as Crypto Loses $150B – Are Crypto Traders Done With Tokens?

Crypto merchants are abandoning token hypothesis in favour of prediction markets following a brutal $150 billion altcoin crash, with platforms like Polymarket seeing app installs surge from 30,000 to over 400,000 between January and December 2025, according to Bloomberg.

Crypto Traders Jump Polymarket - Binance vs Kalshi Download Chart — Source: Bloomberg

Weekly buying and selling quantity throughout prediction platforms, together with Polymarket and Kalshi, exploded from $500 million in June to just about $6 billion in January, information from Dune reveals, whereas crypto change downloads collapsed by greater than half throughout the identical interval.

Crypto Traders Jump Polymarket - Weekly Prediction Market Volume Chart — Source: Dune Analytics

The shift displays deep fatigue throughout the token economic system after Bitcoin plunged practically 30% from its October peak and greater than 11 million cash successfully died final 12 months, marking the most important extinction occasion in crypto historical past, in response to CoinGecko.

According to CoinShares, digital asset investment products shed $1.73 billion within the largest weekly outflow since mid-November 2025, pushed by fading rate-cut expectations and protracted bearish sentiment.

Last week, Bitcoin spot ETFs also bled $1.62 billion over four consecutive trading days as hedge funds unwound foundation trades that now yield under 5%.

Crypto Natives Migrate to Event Betting

Former memecoin merchants are main the exodus towards prediction markets that provide binary odds on real-world occasions fairly than multi-year token roadmaps.

Nikshep Saravanan, who deserted his digital creator startup to construct HumanPlane, a prediction market analysis platform, mentioned the shift made sense after shedding traction with out funding.

“Here I can do much more with no capital,” the 27-year-old Canadian defined. “There’s a lot extra curiosity right here.“

Tre Upshaw adopted an analogous path after shedding cash on memecoins like SafeMoon, now working Polysights, an analytics dashboard for prediction markets.

“I spotted that’s simply hyper playing,” he mentioned. “I bought burned so many instances on memecoins.”

Yet losses stay widespread throughout prediction markets too, with 70% of trading addresses showing realized losses, whereas fewer than 0.04% of Polymarket addresses captured over 70% of complete realized income totalling $3.7 billion.

The infrastructure supporting these markets stays basically crypto-powered regardless of merchants fleeing token hypothesis.

On Polymarket, each key a part of trades besides order-matching occurs on-chain, revealing blockchain expertise’s most sturdy use case but as belief-driven hypothesis cools.

Crypto contracts have turn out to be the second-busiest buying and selling class on Polymarket, up from fourth place a 12 months in the past, with notional crypto quantity rising practically tenfold throughout main platforms, in response to Dune information.

Exchanges Rush Into Prediction Markets

Major crypto platforms are aggressively increasing into occasion contracts as person demand shifts.

Coinbase added prediction markets in December by way of Kalshi routing, with Clear Street analyst Owen Lau projecting the change might generate $700 million in prediction market income for 2025, whereas Robinhood’s annual run fee already approaches $300 million.

Gemini and Crypto.com have additionally launched their very own prediction market efforts, with Crypto.com white-labeling providers for Trump Media.

“As we add extra devices, they have a tendency to enrich one another,” mentioned Max Branzburg, Coinbase’s head of shopper and enterprise merchandise, noting the agency has “seen tons of pleasure” from customers wanting a single venue to commerce every part.

A Mizuho survey cited by Bloomberg discovered that Coinbase and Robinhood customers have been 9 instances extra probably to make use of prediction platforms than the final inhabitants.

Polymarket returned to the U.S. market following CFTC approval, launching with ultra-low 10 foundation level taker charges and nil maker charges, the bottom amongst main platforms in response to Clear Street analyst Owen Lau.

The platform additionally not too long ago rolled out actual property bets that enable crypto merchants to now speculate on housing costs

The firm raised $205 million throughout two funding rounds and secured a $2 billion funding from Intercontinental Exchange at a valuation of practically $9 billion.

Last month, Kalshi additionally closed a $1 billion spherical at an $11 billion valuation and secured CNN as its official prediction markets accomplice.

Despite near-term outflows, 70% of institutions view Bitcoin as undervalued in a current Coinbase Institutional and Glassnode survey, and 62% preserve or improve crypto positions since October’s crash.

“Crypto markets are getting into 2026 in a more healthy state, with extra leverage having been flushed from the system,” mentioned David Duong, Coinbase Global Head of Research.

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