Two Big Forces Are Shaping Crypto Right Now, Says Bitwise CIO
Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan says crypto’s near-term trajectory is being pulled by two very totally different macro forces: a breakout in gold that alerts a deeper institutional belief drawback, and a abruptly unsure path for the Clarity Act that would decide whether or not the present pro-crypto regulatory posture turns into sturdy US regulation.
In a Jan. 26 memo titled “Gold Rising, Clarity in Suspense,” Hougan framed the second as a split-screen. On one facet is a standard retailer of worth repricing violently increased. On the opposite is a legislative course of that—if it stalls—might shift crypto from expectation-driven markets to an adoption-driven proving floor.
Gold Above $5,000, And Crypto?
Hougan referred to as gold’s transfer “staggering.” After rising 65% in 2025, gold is up one other 16% in 2026 and is now buying and selling above $5,000, he wrote, including that it’s “fairly wild” to think about that gold “has gained half of its worth (in greenback phrases) within the final 20 months.”
For Hougan, the worth motion is much less about commodity cycles and extra about confidence. “I believe the spiking worth of gold says one thing profound concerning the world,” he wrote. “First, it says that years of money printing, debt, and debasement is catching up with fiat currencies. And second, it exhibits that folks now not need to preserve all of their wealth in a format that depends on the great graces of others.”
That second level is the hinge to crypto. Hougan argued that the previous couple of years have accelerated a world shift in how establishments take into consideration sovereign threat and custody, tracing the inflection to 2022 when the US seized Russian treasury property after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Central banks, he mentioned, “doubled their annual purchases of gold” after that occasion, successfully deciding that some reserves want to sit down outdoors any single energy’s attain.
He pointed to current examples as proof the development is widening: German economists publicly urging the federal government to withdraw gold saved on the New York Federal Reserve and produce it again to Germany, and a warning from a Norwegian authorities panel that its sovereign wealth fund could also be “topic to elevated taxation, regulatory intervention and even confiscation” in as we speak’s geopolitical local weather. “There is a world breakdown in belief amongst establishments, and it’s accelerating,” Hougan wrote.
Crypto’s pitch, on this framing, is easy: programs designed to attenuate reliance on centralized intermediaries. “To personal bitcoin or different crypto property, you don’t need to belief anybody,” he wrote, including that “no single particular person can change the foundations for a way platforms like Ethereum and Solana function.” The trade’s regular vocabulary—self-custody, censorship resistance, trustless—can sound summary, Hougan acknowledged, however he argued it begins to look extra concrete in a world that’s more and more skeptical about who in the end controls property and guidelines.
The Clarity Act’s Wobble
Hougan’s second focus was the Clarity Act, which he described as vital as a result of it could “cement the present pro-crypto regulatory atmosphere into regulation.” Without it, he argued, a future administration might reverse course—he illustrated the stakes by asking readers to “image Senator Elizabeth Warren as the following chair of the SEC.”
Earlier this month, he wrote, prediction markets have been assured: Polymarket had the percentages of passage round 80% in early January. After recent setbacks, including Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong calling the present model “unworkable”, Hougan mentioned these odds have fallen nearer to 50%.
If Clarity fails, Hougan expects a multi-year reset in how markets worth the sector. “If the invoice fails, I imagine crypto will enter a ‘present me’ interval,” he wrote. “That means it is going to have three years to make crypto indispensable to the on a regular basis lives of standard Americans and the standard monetary trade. If it succeeds, rules will deal with themselves. If it fails, there might be actual challenges.”
He in contrast the dynamic to applied sciences that pressured authorized lodging by changing into unavoidable, citing Uber and Airbnb working “on the sting of rules” till utilization made the previous framework untenable. In crypto’s case, the proof could be unmistakable penetration into mainstream rails—Hougan’s examples have been Americans “utilizing stablecoins and buying and selling tokenized shares.” If that occurs, he argued, supportive laws turns into politically resilient no matter who holds energy. If it doesn’t, a shift in Washington might develop into “an enormous setback.”
Hougan tied the legislative final result on to market construction. If a model of Clarity passes that the trade can help, he expects traders to deal with stablecoin and tokenization progress as successfully assured—and to cost that future in shortly. If Clarity fails, the market might demand real-world adoption earlier than rewarding valuations, as a result of in any other case crypto could be “constructed on a regulatory basis of sand.”
At press time, the whole crypto market cap stood at $2.94 trillion.
