Bitcoin’s Historical Bottom Indicator Points to $62K – Could BTC Fall That Low?

Bitcoin is approaching a traditionally vital assist zone close to $62,000, as a long-tracked reserve-cost indicator tied to Binance indicators that BTC might see extra ache forward.

The $62k reserve value degree has not been examined for the reason that approval of U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs in January 2024, elevating contemporary questions over whether or not the present drawdown marks a deeper bear section slightly than a routine correction.

The warning comes as a number of technical and on-chain indicators flip bearish concurrently, at the same time as elements of the market stay positioned for a renewed bull cycle in 2026.

Binance Reserve Cost Shifts the Post-ETF Floor

The Binance Reserve RP, which tracks the common acquisition value of Bitcoin reserves on the trade, has traditionally acted as a dividing line between bull and bear markets.

According to data shared by crypto analyst Burak Kesmeci, that degree now sits at $62,000, a pointy rise from pre-ETF norms.

Before spot ETFs had been accepted, the indicator hovered round $42,000, reflecting a unique market construction dominated by retail and offshore flows.

Since January 2024, institutional participation has altered worth habits, lifting the reserve value and redefining what constitutes draw back assist.

“Bitcoin has by no means examined this degree since Spot ETF approval,” Kesmeci stated, noting that the value spent all the bull run effectively above the $62,000 zone.

In his view, worth motion this yr will decide whether or not $62,000 holds as a structural ground or breaks.

On-Chain Metrics Point to Early Bear Structure

Beyond exchange-based indicators, on-chain information can also be flashing warning.

Bitcoin’s Supply in Loss has begun trending greater once more, a shift that has traditionally marked the early levels of bear markets.

In previous cycles in 2014, 2018, and 2022, the metric turned upward earlier than costs reached their eventual lows.

During these intervals, losses regularly unfold from short-term holders to longer-term members as costs continued to weaken.

At current, Supply in Loss stays effectively under ranges seen throughout full capitulation phases.

CryptoQuant’s head of analysis, Julio Moreno, has pointed to an analogous clustering of bearish indicators that emerged in early November and have but to reverse.

He argues that the market should still be within the technique of finding a sturdy backside.

How Low Could Bitcoin Go?

Using Bitcoin’s realized worth, which displays the common value foundation of present holders, Moreno estimates a possible bear market low under the $62,000 reserve value.

His projected vary sits between $56,000 and $60,000 over the following yr.

Historically, extended downturns have seen Bitcoin drift again towards realized worth after overshooting throughout bull markets.

A transfer into that zone would indicate a drawdown of roughly 55% from Bitcoin’s all-time high above $125,000.

While substantial, Moreno views such a decline as comparatively modest in contrast with prior bear markets.

Previous cycles usually produced losses of 70% to 80%, ceaselessly amplified by cascading failures throughout the crypto sector.

Bitcoin Technicals Clash With Bullish Narratives

Technical indicators are additionally including strain to the bearish case.

A crossover of the 21-week and 50-week exponential shifting averages, usually referred to because the Bull Market EMA crossover, has not too long ago appeared.

Historically, comparable crossovers preceded deeper bear phases in This autumn 2014, late Q3 2018, and early Q2 2022.

If the present Bitcoin section is certainly a bear market, it could problem expectations that 2026 will ship one other robust progress section for Bitcoin.

Binance founder Changpeng Zhao has promoted the idea of a Bitcoin “supercycle,” whereas Grayscale researchers have questioned the relevance of the normal four-year cycle.

@Grayscale predicts Bitcoin might set a brand new all-time high in early 2026 as institutional demand builds and buyers lean more durable into various shops of worth.#Grasycale #BitcoinPricePrediction https://t.co/AAdSK63MvJ

— Cryptonews.com (@cryptonews) December 16, 2025

Bernstein has additionally maintained a $150,000 target for 2026, describing the present atmosphere as an “elongated bull market.”

Whether these forecasts maintain could depend upon Bitcoin reclaiming its 50-week shifting common, at the moment close to $100,988.

Until then, analysts say the market stays centered on draw back threat administration.

With greater than $4.5 billion in realized losses recorded since BTC fell under $90,000, the following assist take a look at might outline the cycle’s true low.

The put up Bitcoin’s Historical Bottom Indicator Points to $62K – Could BTC Fall That Low? appeared first on Cryptonews.