Ripple CTO Emeritus Debunks Unrealistic XRP Price Predictions
On January 30, Ripple’s CTO Emeritus, David Schwartz, instantly addressed rampant group hypothesis about XRP’s worth potential.
He utilized a elementary monetary logic to argue that the token’s present market worth contradicts the wildly optimistic predictions shared on-line.
His feedback spotlight a persistent divide between aspirational group narratives and the sober chances mirrored in buying and selling exercise.
A Lesson in Expected Value
The dialogue started with a consumer pleading for Schwartz to inform supporters that XRP wouldn’t attain $50 or $100. Schwartz declined to make an absolute prediction, recalling he as soon as thought XRP hitting $0.25 was unlikely. However, he supplied a transparent framework for evaluating such claims.
He said that if a significant share of rational traders actually believed XRP had a ten% probability of hitting $100 within the close to future, promoting at present ranges would make little sense.
“If many rational individuals believed that there was a ten% probability that XRP hit $100 inside a number of years, they undoubtedly wouldn’t promote very a lot right this moment at a lot lower than $10,” Schwartz wrote on X.
According to him, these traders would purchase aggressively, rapidly exhausting provide at decrease costs. But the truth that XRP continues to commerce far under that stage suggests that only a few market individuals maintain that perception with sufficient confidence to commit capital.
Schwartz added that anybody claiming in any other case “is just not telling the reality,” framing the difficulty as a niche between on-line claims and precise conduct. He inspired readers to use the identical math themselves throughout totally different chances and time frames.
This perspective was echoed by different group figures, together with XrpArthur, a proponent of the Ripple token. They wrote that individuals satisfied of a $100 XRP “clearly don’t find the money for (or actual conviction) to build up closely,” warning that exaggerated targets have broken group psychology.
Market Reality Versus Long-Term Narratives
Currently, XRP is buying and selling close to $1.75, reflecting a drop of over 8% up to now week and about 44% over the past yr. This locations it in what some analysts call one in all its longest consolidation phases, lasting roughly 434 days.
The technical panorama stays difficult, with XRP buying and selling about 25% under its 200-day transferring common, and short-term momentum indicators suggesting continued consolidation. However, this worth motion exists alongside some optimistic developments, together with U.S. spot XRP ETFs, which noticed almost $92 million in internet inflows in January, based on SoSoValue knowledge.
At the identical time, Santiment reported that 42 new wallets holding not less than a million XRP have appeared for the reason that begin of 2026, suggesting quiet accumulation by massive holders regardless of weak short-term tendencies.
Meanwhile, corporations like 21Shares have printed measured 2026 outlooks, with a base-case worth goal close to $2.45, contingent on elements like sustained ETF inflows and adoption of Ripple’s stablecoin. This evaluation, mixed with Schwartz’s anticipated worth argument, presents a extra grounded counterpoint to the acute worth forecasts that steadily flow into inside components of the XRP group.
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