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The ‘Ugly’ ETH Scenario: What Happens If Ethereum Loses $2,620

Ethereum Spot ETF Net Inflow

Ethereum is getting into February 2026 on unstable floor. After slipping beneath key ranges, the asset is hovering close to zones that merchants have been watching. Pressure is constructing, and market consideration is now on whether or not ETH can maintain its floor or if additional losses are forward.

Key Levels in Focus

The $2,710 stage has been an essential help since December. Ethereum not too long ago dipped beneath it, elevating considerations {that a} deeper transfer could comply with. Crypto analyst Ardi described this zone as “very important” and mentioned if ETH fails to carry right here, “the $2,620 swing low is the subsequent hunt.”

If $2,620 fails, consideration will possible shift to the $2,450 stage, which acted as a robust base in mid-2025. According to Ardi, this space ought to function “the principle line of defence” on a bigger transfer down. “Below that will get extraordinarily ugly,” they mentioned, referring to the dearth of close by help beneath this zone.

Meanwhile, Ethereum is buying and selling at round $2,730 with a 24-hour quantity of $45.3 billion. The worth is down 7% within the final 24 hours and virtually 7% over the previous week (per CoinGecko’s knowledge). For the month of January, ETH misplaced almost 7%, at present buying and selling nicely beneath the degrees seen at first of the 12 months.

Over the previous day, the value has ranged between $2,700 and $2,940. Ethereum is now 45% beneath its all-time high of $4,950 reached in August 2025.

Outflows from ETFs Add Pressure

Investor flows into Ethereum ETFs proceed to point out weak spot. January noticed a internet outflow of greater than $100 million. This adopted heavier outflows of $617 million in December and almost $1.5 billion in November. The constant exit over three months suggests decreased institutional curiosity.

Ethereum Spot ETF Net Inflow
Ethereum Spot ETF Net Inflow 1.30. Source: SoSoValue

Another analyst, Ted, commented that ETH has misplaced the $2,800 zone, pointing to the $2,500–$2,600 vary as the subsequent possible help. “This is almost definitely to carry within the quick time period for any bounce,” he mentioned. Still, the sample of combined ETF flows has stored some merchants cautious.

While the pattern has weakened, some analysts consider circumstances are forming for a reversal. Bryant noted ETH is displaying a “triple bullish divergence,” the place worth kinds decrease lows and RSI kinds increased lows.

“This is a a lot stronger sign for a reversal,” they mentioned.

Others are watching long-term trendlines. Kamran Asghar identified that ETH is testing a help that has held since 2022, asking if this might be a “buy-the-dip” space. Meanwhile, Sykodelic projected a longer-term goal of $10,000, calling it a “cheap minimal” if a full restoration builds.

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