What to Expect From XRP Price in February 2026
XRP is coming into February underneath stress. The token is down practically 7% in the previous 24 hours and about 5% over the previous month, reflecting rising weak point throughout the market. Historically, February has been a tough month for the XRP value. Data exhibits its median February return stands at −8.12%, with a median decline of −5%. In 2025, the token fell by nearly 29% throughout the identical interval.
This 12 months, technical and on-chain indicators recommend related dangers are constructing. At the identical time, selective accumulation and early momentum indicators trace that restoration remains to be potential. Here is what the info exhibits.
Why the Price Pullback Was Expected
XRP continues to commerce inside a long-term descending channel on the two-day chart. A falling channel is a bearish construction the place value makes decrease highs and decrease lows inside parallel trendlines.
Since mid-2025, this sample has saved rallies capped and pushed costs steadily decrease. As traditionally weak February approaches, XRP is drifting closer to the channel’s decrease boundary, growing draw back threat.
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Vasily Shilov, Chief Business Development Officer at SwapSpace, mentioned seasonal patterns nonetheless matter however are now not decisive on their very own.
“ETF flows are at the moment extra dependable directional drivers,” he defined.
“Range-bound motion is the most probably end result if macro readability doesn’t emerge,” he additionally added.
This technical weak point was not sudden, although.
Between October 2 and January 5, XRP shaped a decrease high in value, whereas the Relative Strength Index (RSI) made a better high. RSI measures momentum, exhibiting whether or not shopping for or promoting stress is strengthening.
This mismatch is known as hidden bearish divergence. It typically indicators that upside energy is fading earlier than a correction begins. That sign flashed in early January and was adopted by an almost 30% decline.
Now, a brand new setup is forming.
Between October 10 and January 29, the XRP value printed a decrease low (energetic at press time) whereas RSI is trying to kind a better low. This creates the premise for a bullish divergence, which might sign pattern exhaustion.
For this sign to affirm:
- The subsequent 2-day XRP value candle should kind above $1.71, confirming the decrease low value setup
- RSI should stay above 32.83
If each situations are met, draw back momentum weakens and rebound potential improves. If they fail, the bearish channel stays in management.
Money Flow And Whale Activity Show Mixed Signals
While the XRP price tendencies decrease, capital circulation knowledge paints a extra complicated image.
The Chaikin Money Flow (CMF), which tracks institutional and large-wallet shopping for stress, has been rising between January 5 and January 25, whilst the worth fell. This kinds a bullish divergence.
It means that bigger, probably institutional gamers have been accumulating XRP quietly in the course of the pullback.
ETF circulation knowledge helps this pattern. Although January’s total ETF flows stay web damaging due to heavy outflows on January 21, web inflows have improved steadily towards the month-end. Recent inexperienced bars present renewed curiosity from institutional channels.
Shilov mentioned that January’s ETF volatility displays broader macro warning somewhat than structural weak point in XRP demand.
He defined that whereas macro pressures pushed buyers towards safer belongings like gold and silver, XRP spot ETFs have nonetheless attracted greater than $1.3 billion in complete inflows since launch and haven’t recorded a month of web redemptions.
“The scale and persistence of inflows recommend a pattern reversal is unlikely for now,” he talked about
However, this optimism is being challenged by alternate knowledge.
XRP’s alternate circulation stability has flipped sharply larger since January 17, shifting from −7.64 million to +3.78 million. More regarding is the sample.
Three consecutive influx peaks appeared on January 25, 27, and 29. The same construction shaped earlier this month on January 4, 8, and 13. After that, XRP fell from $2.10 to $1.73, a drop of about 18%. This makes the present influx construction a transparent threat sign regardless of ETF optimism.
Shilov added that ETF demand alone remains to be not sturdy sufficient to totally isolate XRP from broader market forces. Based on SwapSpace buying and selling knowledge, he mentioned XRP’s short-term strikes proceed to observe Bitcoin’s pattern and macro threat sentiment when ETF flows flip unstable.
“BTC’s path, macro stress, and derivatives positioning are possible to dictate threat urge for food in the close to time period,” he famous.
XRP Whales Present An Interesting Perspective
Whale conduct provides one other layer.
Wallets holding over 1 billion XRP have been steadily accumulating since early January, when the worth correction began. Their holdings elevated from 23.35 billion to 23.49 billion XRP, representing important capital deployment throughout weak point.
Unlike final 12 months, when mega whales waited till late February to purchase, they’re constructing positions earlier this cycle. This reduces the likelihood of a deep collapse however doesn’t take away short-term draw back threat.
Shilov cautioned that large-holder accumulation have to be seen in context. He mentioned present patterns resemble tactical positioning somewhat than agency conviction.
“Steady accumulation should persist alongside secure ETF inflows,” he mentioned.
“Otherwise, shopping for can dry up rapidly if macro stress will increase.”
The indicators are conflicting, which explains the 5% dip in January and never one thing as aggressive as close to 15% in December 2025.
Key Support Levels, Downside Risks, and XRP Price Recovery Scenarios
The XRP price structure now makes the important ranges clear. The first zone XRP should defend is $1.71–$1.69. A two-day shut beneath this space would weaken the channel assist and open room for a bigger breakdown.
If this occurs, the following main assist sits close to $1.46. A sustained transfer beneath $1.46 might set off accelerated promoting and expose XRP to deeper declines towards $1.24.
This state of affairs turns into extra possible if alternate inflows proceed rising and ETF demand fails to strengthen.
On the upside, restoration hinges on one degree. XRP should reclaim $1.97 on a two-day closing foundation. This would characterize a breakout above short-term resistance and sign that consumers are regaining management. This XRP level was highlighted yesterday by BeInCrypto analysts.
A confirmed transfer above $1.97 might open the trail towards $2.41, which aligns with key Fibonacci and channel resistance ranges.
Looking forward, Shilov mentioned the strongest affirmation of a bullish breakout can be a return of sustained ETF inflows related to November’s launch interval.
“Weekly inflows between $80 million and $200 million would construct sturdy momentum above $2.10,” he mentioned.
He additionally hinted at a potential breakdown degree, which aligns completely with our evaluation:
“Further deterioration in world geopolitical or macro situations might worsen the XRP dip and push the asset beneath $1.70,” he highlighted.
The battle now facilities on $1.69 assist and $1.97 resistance. Whichever breaks first is probably going to outline the XRP value path for the remainder of February.
The submit What to Expect From XRP Price in February 2026 appeared first on BeInCrypto.