I predicted Bitcoin falling to $49k this year and January delivered some very concerning red flags
My $49k Bitcoin bear thesis, a January check-in, the plumbing is flashing whereas worth bleeds
I wrote my medium-term $49,000 bear thesis in late November with one easy concept, Bitcoin nonetheless strikes in cycles, and the subsequent actual “this is the low” second tends to arrive when miner economics and flows line up on the identical time.
It is now Jan. 30, 2026, and the trustworthy replace is this, the variables I care about look extra careworn than they did when I revealed, and the tape has not delivered the sort of panic worth print that makes these variables matter to everybody directly.
Somewhat paradoxically, my ‘medium-term bear thesis’ was supposed to be long-term bullish. The concept being that we may get a brief, sharp bear market with max ache adopted by a sustained, multi-year bull run. However, the worth is not fairly matching with the indicators proper now.
Bitcoin is hovering across the low $80,000s (after falling to $81,000 in a single day) as I write this, which suggests my high-$40ks zone has not even come into sight but.
That disconnect is the story.
Because beneath the worth, the elements of the system that pay for Bitcoin’s safety, and the elements that transfer institutional dimension, are performing like winter already arrived.
The winter feeling is coming from charges, not the chart
Start with the safety funds, as a result of that was my authentic “fragility” declare.
On Jan. 29, miners earned about $37.22 million in daily revenue.
On the identical date, whole transaction fees paid per day have been about $260,550.
Do the mathematics and you get the temper music, charges are roughly 0.7% of miner income.
That just isn’t “charges are weak,” that’s “charges are principally absent,” within the sense that the charge market is contributing nearly nothing to the price of securing the chain on a day-to-day foundation.
Even the dwell mempool image appears sleepy. The projected next-block median charge price is round 0.12 to 0.14 sat/vB proper now.
So when folks ask why I maintain circling again to miner economics, it’s as a result of this is what a charge ground failing appears like in actual time. The community leans on issuance, issuance steps down on schedule, and the whole lot else has to choose up the slack later.
The ETF window has been a gradual leak, with just a few ugly gulps
The second leg of my framework was stream elasticity, the concept that the ETF period creates a clear, mechanical manner to see threat urge for food flip.
In January, that elasticity has been pointing within the improper route.
On Farside, the previous couple of weeks present a number of heavy outflow prints, together with -$708.7M on Jan. 21 and -$817.8M on Jan. 29.
Total internet flows are additionally adverse at -$1.095B year-to-date. That issues greater than any single day as a result of it adjustments the psychology of dips. In the soft-landing model of my thesis, the tape will get assist from persistent dip shopping for by the ETF pipe. Right now, the pipe has been taking water out.
There have been massive inexperienced days earlier within the month too, Jan. 13 at +$753.8M and Jan. 14 at +$840.6M, and these are actual, however the late-month stream prints have been the type you’re feeling on a desk.
If you commerce for a residing, this sensation, worth holds up, the internals begin to rot, and everybody retains searching for the second the chart lastly displays what the plumbing has been saying.
Hashrate is wobbling, miners are adapting, and that adaptation adjustments habits
Another piece of the setup is miner elasticity.
Hashrate remains to be big, but it surely has been swinging. On Jan. 29 the day by day common is roughly 901 EH/s, down from earlier peaks this month.
That by itself doesn’t equal capitulation, and I am not making an attempt to power a dramatic story onto routine variance. It does match the broader level, miners now have extra knobs to flip.
The most necessary knob is the one no one talked about in prior cycles, AI and HPC internet hosting.
When a miner indicators long-duration compute offers, that enterprise begins to look much less like a pure BTC margin machine and extra like an influence, land, and infrastructure operator that occurs to mine Bitcoin.
TeraWulf put that shift in daring print when it introduced two 10-year HPC colocation agreements with Fluidstack for 200+ MW, with Google backstopping a big portion of obligations and receiving an fairness stake, per the corporate’s personal launch.
Riot has been exploring the identical route, together with a proper analysis to probably repurpose vital capability for AI and HPC, in accordance to DataCenterDynamics.
This issues for Bitcoin market construction as a result of it adjustments the incentives round hashrate on the lows.
A miner with a second income stream can behave otherwise underneath stress. They would possibly curtail or redirect capability with out rapid existential strain, they may defend liquidity for buildouts, they may promote BTC extra mechanically to fund capex, they may merely cease caring about marginal hashprice in the best way a pure miner as soon as did.
That is the elasticity I was pointing at, and it’s beginning to present up within the information’s tone even whereas worth sits high.
So what’s the “state of the thesis” proper now
Here is the cleanest manner I can say it in a single breath.
The charge ground appears damaged, ETF flows have been risk-off for weeks, and the miner enterprise mannequin is evolving in a manner that may amplify reflexive habits throughout drawdowns.
Those are the circumstances I wrote about.
The lacking ingredient is the half folks bear in mind, the chart dumping into the zone the place panic turns into stock switch.
Bitcoin at $82k doesn’t power anybody to make that call. A print within the $40ks would.
That is why this replace is much less about worth targets and extra about stress. The system is constructing stress.
| Scenario | Bottom Price (USD) | Timing Window | Path Shape | Key Triggers Into Low (Jan 30, 2026 standing) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base | 49,000 | Q1–Q2 2026 | 2–3 sharp legs decrease, basing |
 Hashprice spot sub-$40/PH/day Fee% of miner income < 10% (excessive, ~<1% on newest prints) 20D ETF flows adverse (internet outflows during the last 20 buying and selling days) “Forwards sub-$40 for weeks” depends upon whether or not you deal with spot because the proxy, forwards have a near-dated hump
|
| Soft-landing | 56,000–60,000 | H2 2025 | Single flush, vary |
 Fee% > 15% sustained (reverse, charges are very low) Stable hashrate (has proven significant variance this month) Mixed to constructive ETF flows on down days (late-Jan confirmed heavy outflows)
|
| Deep lower | 36,000–42,000 | Late 2026–Q1 2027 | Waterfall, quick |
Macro risk-off (not a single on-chain metric, combined sign exterior this desk) Fee drought (supported by charges and feerates) Miner misery (not “capitulation,” however stress seen through low hashprice) Persistent ETF outflows (current window adverse, “persistent” over longer horizon nonetheless TBD)
|
The human-interest angle folks miss, miners are operating two corporations directly
When you cut back this to “charges are down,” it appears like a chart notice.
In actual life it appears like operators making an attempt to maintain the lights on, negotiating energy contracts, planning buildouts, courting AI prospects, juggling shareholders, and nonetheless needing to compete in essentially the most brutal hash race on earth.
A low-fee surroundings doesn’t simply weaken the safety funds, it forces miners to get inventive, and creativity introduces new behaviors into the market.
The base-case bear I described in November was all the time about that habits exhibiting up similtaneously stream strain, and then worth lastly doing the factor it does when leverage and narrative crack collectively.
Right now, two of these levers are already pulled.
What would make me say the bear is resolving early
I am retaining my flip-level framework, and I am retaining it boring on objective.
- Fees want to cease residing within the mud, the YCharts charge line wants to rebuild an actual ground relative to the YCharts income line.
- ETF stream habits wants to change, the Farside desk wants to present constant dip shopping for once more, not late-month air pockets.
- Mempool circumstances want to really feel alive once more, charge strain exhibiting up within the mempool medians in a manner that implies actual settlement demand.
If these occur whereas worth stays elevated, the “shortest winter but” framing begins to win.
If these keep weak and worth ultimately breaks, the $49k model print stays in play as a liquidity magnet, as a result of that’s the place the client base tends to change character.
Where I stand at this time
I do not need the cathartic conclusion that each market story desires, as a result of the market has not given it but.
The infrastructure tells me winter circumstances are already right here.
The chart tells me the gang has not felt them.
That hole is the factor to watch, as a result of gaps like this don’t normally persist endlessly.
And after they shut, they shut quick.
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