Galaxy Analyst Warns Bitcoin Could Drop to $63K Due to Ownership Gap
Galaxy Digital’s Head of Research, Alex Thorn, has issued a stark warning that Bitcoin might fall one other 19% to the $63,000 stage, citing a major hole in onchain possession between $82,000 and $70,000.
The warning comes as Bitcoin already trades over 38% beneath its October 6, 2025, all-time high of $126,298.
Thorn’s analysis reveals that the present worth construction lacks significant demand between $70,000 and $80,000, making a vacuum that might speed up promoting stress within the close to time period.
The report paints an image of a market nonetheless grappling with deep structural weak point regardless of bullish narratives.
The $70K-$80K Ownership Gap Spells Trouble
According to Galaxy Research’s Bitcoin supply data primarily based on when cash final moved onchain, a transparent hole in possession is seen within the $70,000-$80,000 vary.
The overwhelming majority of the roughly 194,000 BTC proven to have final traded between $77,000 and $79,500 and did so simply inside the final two days, that means these are shallow positions unlikely to maintain underneath stress.
Significant purchases have been made between $80,000 and $92,000 over the past 4 months, however all different worth cohorts have contributed to promoting stress.
“While it might see chop across the historic max discount-to-ETF-cost-basis of -10% (presently round $76k), for the explanations above, there’s a vital likelihood that BTC drifts in the direction of the underside of the provision hole ($70k) after which doubtlessly assessments the realized worth ($56k) and 200-week shifting common ($58k) over the approaching weeks and months,” Thorn defined.
Historical Patterns Signal Deeper Pain Ahead
With the exception of 2017, Bitcoin has by no means skilled a 40% drawdown from its all-time high that didn’t prolong to 50% or extra inside three months.
A 50% drawdown from the present all-time high would place BTC at precisely $63,000, the extent Thorn flags as the subsequent main ache level.
bitcoin now down -38% from all-time high
we’ve been predicting decrease since october, known as it a bear market in november
beimnet calling for eventual transfer to 200w MA, presently $58k (gang), would probably be $60-$65k if it hits
galaxy brains
take notes
pic.twitter.com/HtlS2rkQ8u
— Alex Thorn (@intangiblecoins) January 31, 2026
Data from Galaxy Research exhibits that throughout the final three bull markets in 2013/14, 2017/18, 2019, and 2021, the 50-week shifting common served as key help.
However, when that stage was misplaced, the value in the end reverted to the 200-week shifting common every time.
Bitcoin misplaced the 50-week shifting common in November 2025, and the 200-week shifting common presently sits at $58,000.
The realized worth, measuring the common value foundation for cash primarily based on their final onchain actions, presently sits round $56,000, presenting one other crucial help zone to watch.
Gold Outperforms as Bitcoin Struggles With Narrative
Since the start of This autumn 2025, Bitcoin has failed to preserve tempo with conventional safe-haven belongings like gold and silver, a development that has not gone unnoticed by monetary commentators.
Investors have been fleeing toward commodities amid escalating commerce tensions and rising considerations over the sustainability of worldwide sovereign debt.
Bitcoin was broadly anticipated to profit from these circumstances, given its decentralized nature and borderless utility.
Yet the main cryptocurrency has moved in the opposite direction, surrendering floor to established onerous belongings and shedding credibility amongst buyers looking for refuge from macroeconomic turbulence.
Where Could BTC Bottom Hold?
Galaxy Research flagged on the tail finish of final 12 months that 2026 would probably show too unpredictable to pin down a year-end worth goal for BTC.
Forty-five days into the 12 months, that evaluation has solely confirmed extra correct.
Despite the awful near-term outlook, the funding agency sees a possible alternative rising at decrease ranges.
Thorn famous that Bitcoin has traditionally discovered help round or barely beneath the realized worth earlier than buying and selling greater at previous bear-market bottoms.
If worth falls towards the 200-week shifting common at $58,000 or the realized worth at $56,000, Galaxy Research believes these ranges ought to current sturdy entry factors for long-term buyers, in line with patterns seen in earlier cycles.
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