Bitcoin Faces Key Weekly Test at $68.4K as ETF Redemptions Hit $2.8B
Bitcoin (BTC) traded at $75,980 as U.S. desks opened on Feb. 4, 2026, with merchants anchoring draw back danger to the 200-week EMA close to $68,400 after 4 straight pink month-to-month candles.
Nic Puckrin, CEO of Coin Bureau, framed the fast set off as $74,400 (the “April lows” referenced in his X put up), then $70,000 as the following shelf “simply above” the $69,000 prior ATH, earlier than a deeper capitulation pocket at $55,700 to $58,200 that he tied to the typical realized value band plus the 200-week MA.
“Breaking beneath meaning we head to a bear market low goal. The space to look at right here $55.7k – $58.2k. That’s simply between the typical realised value of all cash & the 200w MA. That needs to be the underside.”
Altcoin Sherpa posted the identical macro magnet, calling a tag of the 200-week EMA “round 68k” “logical,” and timestamped the view on Feb. 4, 2026.
BitBull added a cycle template: when BTC loses the 100-week EMA, the value traditionally retests the 200-week EMA, and he put the retest marker at $68,000 with an “accumulating” framework as soon as it prints.
ETF circulate and positioning information recommend this pullback appears extra like de-risking than a full-scale institutional exit. Over the previous two weeks, the 11 U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs have seen nearly $2.8 billion in internet redemptions ($1.49B final week and $1.32B the week earlier than), even as the group nonetheless holds round $100.38 billion in internet property, down from above $125 billion in mid-January.
BTC additionally briefly dipped to about $74,600, however has largely held the mid-$70Ks, conserving it simply above a stage many merchants look ahead to pressured deleveraging.
The Institutional Take
The 200-week band features as a danger committee line as a result of it compresses a four-year regime filter right into a single weekly shut.
If BTC trades at $75,000 however the market begins pricing a $68.4K tag, desks sometimes shift from “purchase dips” to “promote rips” till the weekly candle both reclaims the 100-week construction or prints a clear test-and-hold at the 200-week zone, which is the place systematic vol sellers and long-only allocators normally re-enter with dimension slightly than clip bids within the mid-range.
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