Same Macro Tape, Different Bid – Gold Absorbs Flows as Bitcoin Swings
Gold is currently trading at $4,906/oz as macro desks preserve paying for convexity within the oldest hedge, whereas Bitcoin is trading at $72,639 after a bounce to $78,376. Same tape. Different bid.
Gold Flows Tell the Story
The “receipt” for gold’s new regime sits in circulate math, not slogans. World Gold Council data for full-year 2025 reveals international gold ETF holdings of +801 tonnes (second-strongest 12 months on file) and This autumn ETF inflows of 175 tonnes, alongside This autumn bar-and-coin demand of 420 tonnes, the strongest This autumn in 12 years.
In the U.S., WGC experiences U.S. gold demand of 679 tonnes in 2025 (+140% y/y) and U.S. gold-backed ETF demand of 437 tonnes, bringing holdings to 2,019 tonnes (about $280bn in AUM as of Dec. 31, 2025). That’s identified as allocation-scale shopping for.
JP Morgan pushed the ahead curve increased, as a Reuters-reported note set a $6,300/oz goal for end-2026 and penciled in 800 tonnes of central-bank shopping for for 2026.
Positioning mechanics have additionally amplified the transfer. CME raised margin necessities for Comex gold futures to eight% from 6% for non-heightened danger profiles (and to eight.8% from 6.6% for heightened-risk), with silver margins to fifteen% from 11%, tightening the noose on leveraged metals books after violent every day ranges.
Bitcoin didn’t print the identical “pressured purchaser” profile on this drawdown. CoinMarketCap’s tape reveals BTC remains to be ~40% beneath its ATH of $126,198, which retains systematic vol-control and risk-parity model sizing mechanically smaller than in development regimes. The market cleared danger by promoting what trades like a high-beta liquidity proxy.
How Desks Treat Gold vs. Bitcoin
A gold bid backed by ETF balance-sheet absorption (801t in 2025) and central-bank circulate expectations (800t in 2026) trades by way of price scares and margin hikes as a result of allocators can common in with low monitoring error towards benchmarks.
Bitcoin’s “hedge” bid behaves like a risk-budget stock on desks that fund it by way of liquidity. When margins rise, actual yields reprice, or fairness vol spikes, these desks minimize BTC first as a result of BTC sizing keys off VAR, not a quarterly asset-allocation committee memo.
The put up Same Macro Tape, Different Bid – Gold Absorbs Flows as Bitcoin Swings appeared first on Cryptonews.
