‘Big Short’ Investor Michael Burry Flags Bitcoin Chart Pattern Implying Drop to Low $50,000s
Scion Asset Management founder Michael Burry, the hedge fund supervisor who rose to fame predicting the 2008 housing disaster, has shared a Bitcoin chart on X evaluating the present pullback to the 2021–22 crash, implying that BTC may fall to the low $50,000s earlier than discovering a sturdy backside.
Key Takeaways:
– Burry overlaid Bitcoin’s present drop from $126,000 to $70,000 onto the 2021–22 bear market path, hinting at a slide towards the low $50,000s.
– Not everyone seems to be shopping for it — skeptics level out {that a} single historic parallel hardly counts as a sample.
– BTC has shed roughly 40% since October’s all-time high and sits close to $72,000, weighed down by heavy ETF redemptions and broader risk-off sentiment.
In a submit early Thursday, Burry highlighted similarities between BTC’s drop from its October high of $126,000 to round $70,000 and the late-2021 to mid-2022 plunge, by which Bitcoin fell from roughly $35,000 to beneath $20,000.
When mapped onto at the moment’s value ranges, the prior cycle’s trajectory implies threat towards the low $50,000s.
Burry didn’t spell out an specific value goal, however the visible comparability was sufficient to reignite debate over whether or not Bitcoin is repeating a historic script.
The submit follows a Substack essay published Monday, by which Burry warned that Bitcoin’s decline may set off a self-reinforcing “loss of life spiral” for company holders and mining companies.
“There isn’t any natural use case cause for Bitcoin to sluggish or cease its descent,” Burry wrote within the Substack submit.
Analysts Question Validity of a Single-Cycle Comparison
Not all market individuals are satisfied. Trading agency GSR captured the prevailing skepticism by asking, “Is it a sample if it occurred as soon as?”
The critique goes past semantics. Back in 2021–22, Bitcoin’s crash got here alongside aggressive Fed fee hikes, the implosions of Terra and FTX, and a market nonetheless closely pushed by retail leverage.
The panorama at the moment seems to be meaningfully completely different — spot Bitcoin ETFs have reshaped flows, institutional gamers maintain a bigger share of the market, and the dominant macro dangers have shifted from fee hikes towards broader volatility throughout equities, commodities, and AI-related spending.
That stated, Burry’s warning arrives at a fragile second. Bitcoin slipped below $71,000 on Wednesday earlier than recovering, extending per week of whipsaw buying and selling that has dragged the cryptocurrency to ranges not seen since November 2024.
Burry’s Broader Bear Case Raises Stakes for Strategy and Miners
Burry’s chart comparability provides to a broader bearish thesis he laid out earlier this week. In the Monday Substack submit, he warned {that a} additional 10% decline in BTC may depart Strategy, the biggest company Bitcoin holder with 713,502 BTC on its books, billions within the crimson and successfully shut out of capital markets.
“Sickening eventualities have now come inside attain,” Burry wrote.
He additionally warned {that a} slide to $50,000 may push mining companies towards chapter and trigger tokenized metals futures to “collapse right into a black gap with no purchaser.”
Burry estimated that roughly $1 billion in treasured metals had been liquidated on the finish of January on account of falling crypto costs, a dynamic he described as a “collateral loss of life spiral.”
Meanwhile, Bitcoin ETF assets have dipped below $100 billion for the primary time since April 2025, and the average ETF investor is now underwater with the typical price foundation sitting round $87,830 per coin.
Counterpoints Emerge as Some See Bottom Forming
Not everybody shares Burry’s outlook. Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan echoed the view on the Wolf of All Streets podcast, describing the present surroundings as “peak end-of-winter habits.”
“Winters die in exhaustion,” Hougan said. “There’s no information that ever issues in a bear market.”
Strategy co-founder Michael Saylor has additionally pushed again in opposition to issues, emphasizing that the firm faces no margin calls and has no expectation of being pressured to promote Bitcoin.
Burry’s observe report lends weight to his warnings, although his calls haven’t all the time performed out on anticipated timelines. His strategy tends to heart on shifts in positioning and market psychology somewhat than exact value forecasts — a distinction which may be price making an allowance for as the controversy over Bitcoin’s subsequent transfer continues to intensify.
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