Governments Will Try to Buy 1 Million Bitcoin Each Within 3 Years: Pantera CEO

Pantera Capital CEO Dan Morehead informed attendees at Ondo’s convention that sovereign competitors might grow to be the following massive driver of bitcoin demand, predicting what he known as a “world arms race” for BTC “throughout the subsequent two or three years” as nations rethink reserve technique in a extra fractured geopolitical atmosphere.

“I’d say my one very out of consensus view is I feel there might be a world arms race for Bitcoin throughout the subsequent two or three years,” Morehead said. “Countries just like the United States are establishing strategic Bitcoin reserves. Countries which are aligned with us just like the UAE are buying cryptocurrencies, Bitcoin.”

He argued the bigger shift would come when adversarial blocs resolve it’s strategically reckless to warehouse nationwide financial savings in property seen as weak to US stress. “The massive one although is… nations which are antagonistic to the United States will understand like China, tremendous loopy to have a thousand years of your life financial savings saved in an asset that (*3*) can’t cancel,” Morehead mentioned. “That is loopy. It’s manner smarter to purchase Bitcoin.”

Morehead then sketched out the size he believes might comply with. “I feel inside two or three years there might be an arms race with three or 4 teams, areas every making an attempt to purchase 1,000,000 bitcoins,” he mentioned. “and also you simply need to be lengthy earlier than that occurs.”

Morehead Stays Structurally Bullish On Bitcoin

After the arms-race thesis, Morehead stepped again to clarify why he thinks current market weak point suits a well-known sample somewhat than a damaged narrative. He admitted 2025 shocked him given what he described as a extra favorable coverage backdrop. “If you had requested me on New Year’s Day 2025… you’d have mentioned crypto up or down I’d have mentioned up and it was down 9% final 12 months,” he mentioned.

His takeaway: crypto nonetheless trades in hype cycles, and the psychology repeats. “This is definitely our fourth cycle in 13 years of buying and selling,” he mentioned, describing the swing from “all of us assume we’re geniuses” in bull markets to “it’s failed” in down markets. The antidote, he argued, is time horizon: “5 ten years down the street” and respect for bitcoin’s four-year rhythm.

Morehead pointed to a previous Pantera name as proof the cycle framework can nonetheless map value conduct. The agency projected bitcoin would hit $117,452 on Aug. 11, 2025—“and it did actually that day,” he mentioned. He additionally acknowledged the standard temptation to declare an exception: “I used to be like, ‘Oh, no. This time’s totally different.’” Then he added: “and it wasn’t totally different.”

On demand, Morehead highlighted two comparatively new channels that, in his view, pulled ahead massive quantities of shopping for: “publicly listed ETFs after which publicly listed(*1*).” He mentioned buyers “piled into them” and that “collectively they purchased over 100 billion of crypto,” earlier than suggesting the market can cool as soon as that first wave is absorbed.

Morehead’s longer-term case centered on financial debasement and bitcoin’s mounted provide. “The willingness of all constituents simply to print cash is simply off the charts now,” he mentioned. He described regular erosion in fiat buying energy as a rational catalyst for hard-asset allocation. “Paper cash is being debased at 3% yearly,” he mentioned, arguing that it makes property with constrained provide like gold or bitcoin structurally enticing.

He additionally addressed the gold-versus-bitcoin tug-of-war, saying rotations are regular and pointing to ETF flows as proof each trades at the moment are institutionalized. “The complete inflows to ETFs for each gold… and digital gold, Bitcoin are about the identical over the past couple years,” he mentioned. Over an extended horizon, his conviction was express: “In 10 years from now, Bitcoin will massively outperform gold.”

On establishments, Morehead argued skepticism on the high stays a bullish sign as a result of positioning continues to be gentle. “How can you will have a bubble no one owns?” he mentioned, including that “the median holding for institutional buyers… is actually 0.0.” In his view, the record of causes to keep away from bitcoin has shortened dramatically, even when adoption on the largest companies is lagging.

At press time, BTC traded at $69,418.