Bitcoin’s slide to $60k puts BTC treasury companies $10B underwater as one major firm is braces for a $27B disaster
Bitcoin’s (BTC) slide to as low as $60,233 in a single day, earlier than recovering considerably to $65,443, has left a lot of the largest pure-play Bitcoin treasury companies deeply underwater on their holdings, with mixed unrealized losses approaching $10 billion throughout eight entities that collectively management greater than 850,000 BTC.
The reckoning hits hardest on the prime. Strategy, previously MicroStrategy, holds 713,502 BTC at a mean price foundation of $76,047 per coin, leading to an unrealized lack of $6.85 billion at present costs.
That’s a 12.6% drawdown on a treasury price $47.4 billion at spot, however the firm’s scale means each $1,000 transfer in Bitcoin’s worth swings its paper place by $713.5 million.
Metaplanet, the Japanese lodge firm turned Bitcoin accumulator, sits $1.45 billion underwater on 35,102 BTC acquired at a mean of $107,716. Its 38.3% unrealized loss displays the timing threat related to late-2024 and early-2025 purchases made close to all-time highs.
Twenty One Capital reviews a $906.7 million paper loss on 43,514 BTC bought at $87,280.37, leaving it 23.9% underwater. The worth thought of is derived from a July 29, 2025, filing with the US Securities and Exchange Commission.
The dataset, sourced from Bitcoin Treasuries, tracks solely companies whose enterprise mannequin facilities solely on Bitcoin accumulation.
Coinbase, Tesla, and different corporations with diversified operations do not qualify, making this a pure take a look at of conviction versus price foundation.
Seven of the eight names analyzed are at present underwater. The sole exception is Next, which bought 5,833 BTC at $35,670.09 and nonetheless holds an unrealized achieve of 86.3% ($179.5 million).
The mNAV compression threat
Market-to-net-asset-value ratios add a reflexive dimension to the ache. Metaplanet trades at an mNAV of 1.018, primarily consistent with its BTC holdings, whereas Strategy’s 0.784 a number of implies the market values its fairness at a 21.6% low cost to its Bitcoin treasury.
Nakamoto, with 5,398 BTC and a 0.329 mNAV, trades at a 67% low cost regardless of holding cash acquired at $119,729, representing a 44.5% unrealized loss.
This divergence issues as a result of underwater treasuries usually want both premium mNAV multiples or dilutive fairness raises to preserve accumulating. In drawdowns, markets usually demand the alternative: wider reductions and better hurdle charges for new capital.
Companies that stay worthwhile, such as Next, retain optionality. They can maintain, understand beneficial properties to fund operations, or deploy proceeds defensively.
Names 40% underwater face a totally different calculus: holding turns into a pressured wager that Bitcoin rebounds before financing windows close.
The incremental injury
The present $65,443 worth is 51% under Bitcoin’s October 2025 peak of $126,000, a part of a broader crypto market drawdown that has erased almost $2 trillion in worth.
Earlier this week, $2.5 billion in Bitcoin liquidations accelerated the deleveraging, and Financial Times famous rising prediction-market odds of a sub-$60,000 end result.
Stifel’s technical fashions flag $38,000 as a cycle-style crash goal primarily based on trendline assist.
If Bitcoin sees a sustained drop under $60,000, a 9% decline from present ranges, Strategy’s incremental loss deepens by $4.6 billion, Metaplanet’s by $226 million, and Twenty One Capital’s by $280 million.
At $50,000, these figures balloon to $11.73 billion, $577 million, and $715 million, respectively.
A slide to $38,000 would impose an extra $20.29 billion loss on Strategy alone, past the $6.85 billion it is already underwater.
Strive, holding 13,132 BTC at a $105,850 foundation, would see its $517.5 million present loss broaden by $373.5 million if Bitcoin hits $38,000.
ProCap’s 5,000 BTC, bought at $104,219.34, would deepen its $188.9 million underwater place by an extra $142 million.
Even Next, nonetheless worthwhile at present costs, would give up $165.9 million of its $179.5 million paper achieve if Bitcoin falls to $38,000, leaving it barely above break-even.
| Company | BTC held | ΔP/L to $60,000 | ΔP/L to $50,000 | ΔP/L to $38,000 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nakamoto | 5,398 | -$0.03B | -$0.09B | -$0.15B |
| Next | 5,833 | -$0.04B | -$0.10B | -$0.17B |
| ProCap | 5,000 | -$0.03B | -$0.08B | -$0.14B |
| Strive | 13,132 | -$0.08B | -$0.22B | -$0.37B |
| Metaplanet | 35,102 | -$0.23B | -$0.58B | -$1.00B |
| Twenty One Capital (XXI) | 43,514 | -$0.28B | -$0.72B | -$1.24B |
| Strategy | 713,502 | -$4.60B | -$11.73B | -$20.29B |
| Cohort whole (ex-Bitcoin Standard) | 821,481 | -$5.29B | -$13.51B | -$23.37B |
| Strategy share of cohort incremental loss | 86.9% | 86.9% | 86.9% |
ETF outflows and the distribution shift
The drawdown coincides with a structural shift in Bitcoin distribution.
US spot Bitcoin ETFs, which amassed aggressively by means of 2024 and early 2025, have seen internet outflows in current weeks as institutional allocators rotate towards safer property.
That movement reversal removes a key purchaser bloc that beforehand absorbed provide stress, leaving treasury companies as the dominant diamond-hands cohort.
But “diamond fingers” is a narrative, not a financing technique. Companies accumulating through convertible debt or fairness raises face rising prices and shrinking mNAV premiums.
Metaplanet’s 1.018 a number of provides it equity-issuance capability close to parity with BTC holdings.
Strategy’s 0.784 means each greenback raised via equity prices 1.27 {dollars} of Bitcoin worth on a look-through foundation.
Nakamoto’s 0.329 a number of turns fairness raises into a 3-to-1 dilution tax.
Reflexivity entice
The hazard is not solely the mark-to-market loss but additionally the suggestions loop.
Underwater treasuries compress mNAV multiples, elevating the price of new capital, slowing accumulation, weighing on fairness sentiment, and compressing multiples additional.
Companies with high price bases purchased into energy. If Bitcoin continues to fall, they purchased into the highest of a cycle.
Twenty One Capital’s $87,280.37 foundation, disclosed in SEC filings, sits 24% above present costs however 13% under Strategy’s $76,047 common. It turns into a matter of timing, not conviction.
ProCap’s estimated $104,219.34 foundation and Strive’s $105,850 cluster in the identical late-2024 shopping for window. All three are actually 36-37% underwater, which means they would want Bitcoin to rally above $91,000 to break even, a 37% achieve from present ranges.
What occurs at $38,000
If Stifel’s $38,000 goal materializes, the combination loss for these eight treasuries would exceed $25 billion in incremental injury from in the present day’s ranges.
Strategy alone would lead to a $20.29 billion hit on prime of its present $6.85 billion paper loss, bringing whole unrealized losses to $27.14 billion. Metaplanet could be almost $2.5 billion underwater whole, whereas Twenty One Capital would strategy $2.2 billion.
At that worth, even Next would fall in need of breakeven, erasing its $179.5 million cushion. The complete cohort could be underwater, with no optionality apart from to maintain and wait for a restoration that markets are more and more pricing as unsure.
Pure Bitcoin treasuries wager that conviction plus scale equals compounding.
When Bitcoin rises, leverage amplifies beneficial properties and mNAV multiples broaden, turning fairness into a name possibility on BTC with embedded financing arbitrage. When Bitcoin falls, the identical leverage turns paper losses into financing constraints and a number of compressions into a reflexive entice.
The present $65,443 worth does not erase the thesis. Instead, it stress-tests it.
Strategy’s $6.85 billion unrealized loss represents 12.6% of its BTC worth, a determine that may be tolerable if Bitcoin rebounds. If it does not, the query turns into: at what worth does underwater grow to be unsustainable, and who decides when conviction turns into capitulation?
For now, the market has rendered its verdict by means of mNAV: premiums for worthwhile treasuries, reductions for underwater ones, and steep reductions for these with out clear exit ramps.
The paper loss leaderboard is not static. It recalibrates with each $1,000 transfer in Bitcoin, and the following leg down will decide whether or not these treasuries are worth traps or cycle survivors.
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