Bitcoin Price May Slide Toward $50,000 By March-April, Top Analyst Warns
The Bitcoin value has prolonged its steep decline on Thursday, slipping under the $67,000 stage and deepening a promote‑off that has been unfolding since October of final 12 months.
With the most recent transfer, the market’s main crypto has now retraced near 50% from the all‑time highs it reached throughout that interval, intensifying issues that the market might not but have discovered a sturdy backside.
Against this backdrop, market analyst Ali Martinez has pointed to historic value conduct that implies additional draw back danger within the close to time period.
Analyst Flags 200‑Week SMA As Next Target
In a latest post on X, previously referred to as Twitter, Martinez famous that the Bitcoin value has as soon as once more closed under its 100‑week easy transferring common (SMA), a improvement that has carried important implications in earlier market cycles.
According to Martinez’s evaluation, each occasion since 2015 during which BTC has misplaced the 100‑week SMA has adopted an analogous sample. Rather than rapidly reclaiming that stage, the Bitcoin value has sometimes continued decrease towards the 200‑week SMA.
Those transitions have constantly resulted in sharp corrections, typically ranging between 45% and 58%, and have tended to play out over a interval of roughly 30 to 50 days.
Historical examples spotlight this recurring conduct. In December 2014, Bitcoin fell about 55% after shedding the 100‑week transferring common, reaching the 200‑week stage in roughly 35 days.
The same sample appeared in November 2018, when a weekly shut under the 100‑week SMA was adopted by a forty five% decline that unfolded over roughly 28 days. During the March 2020 COVID‑19 drop, the transfer from the 100‑week to the 200‑week average occurred way more quickly, with the Bitcoin value dropping 47% in a single week.
More not too long ago, in May 2022, a breakdown under the 100‑week SMA preceded a 58% promote‑off that took near 49 days to completely materialize. Based on these precedents, Martinez argues that the most recent weekly shut under the 100‑week SMA will increase the probability of one other substantial correction.
If historic patterns maintain, he suggests the Bitcoin value might face a drawdown of practically 50% towards the 200‑week MA. That would indicate a possible draw back vary between roughly $56,000 and $50,000, a transfer that would happen by March or April, in accordance with the analyst.
What’s Behind The Bitcoin Price Drop?
Beyond technical components, institutional flows have additionally emerged as a key supply of stress. Analysts at Deutsche Bank noted that the broader downturn has been exacerbated by massive and sustained withdrawals from institutional funding autos.
According to their evaluation, crypto‑targeted trade‑traded funds (ETFs) have skilled billions of {dollars} in outflows every month because the downturn that started in October 2025.
They added that US spot Bitcoin ETFs alone recorded outflows exceeding $3 billion in January, following withdrawals of roughly $2 billion in December and $7 billion in November.
In Deutsche Bank’s view, the persistent promoting displays waning curiosity from conventional traders and a rising sense of pessimism towards the crypto asset class.
For now, the market is watching intently to see whether or not Bitcoin costs can stabilize within the quick time period or whether or not additional losses lie forward earlier than any significant restoration can take form later this 12 months.
Featured picture from OpenArt, chart from TradingView.com
