Retail Dumps, Bitcoin Inflows Surge: On-Chain Data Flags Capitulation

Bitcoin’s slide to $60,000 on Feb. 6 triggered a pointy surge of alternate inflows that on-chain analyst Darkfost referred to as a capitulation occasion, with short-term holders and small “shrimp” wallets main the transfer. It wasn’t simply retail panic both—flows jumped on venues that execs truly use.

Darkfost said the selloff “reignited investor nervousness” after BTC revisited a worth degree “not…since October 2024,” alongside a broader drawdown “exceeding 50% from the final all time high.” It wasn’t solely the place BTC traded. It was how briskly it received there. “The acceleration of this correction created a transparent concern pushed dynamic,” he stated. People rushed cash onto exchanges. That solely added gasoline to the liquidation hearth. “Unsurprisingly, Short Term Holders had been the primary to react emotionally.”

Bitcoin Capitulation Event

What stood out: short-term holders had been piling into Binance deposits first—the same old ‘fast to flinch’ group. On Feb. 6 alone, Binance inflows attributed to STHs on a 7-day sum foundation “exceeded 100,000 BTC,” surpassing exercise seen throughout the April 2025 correction, he stated.

Across venues, the size was bigger nonetheless. From Feb. 4 to Feb. 6, almost “241,000 BTC had been despatched to varied exchanges,” Darkfost wrote. It’s powerful to interpret that as something however promoting strain. In his view, the ensuing wave of deposits compounded volatility already elevated by pressured liquidations and de-risking.

While Binance tends to seize massive swaths of retail-driven stream, Darkfost flagged a concurrent surge on Coinbase Advanced, which he described as broadly utilized by establishments, lively merchants, {and professional} desks. On Feb. 6, BTC inflows there hit roughly “27,000 BTC.” That’s an actual spike.

That’s the half that messes with the straightforward “retail panic” story. When you see it on each Binance and Coinbase, it’s most likely not only one crowd freaking out. Darkfost put it bluntly: “nervousness…not restricted to retail traders.”

In a separate publish targeted on small holders, Darkfost argued that retail participation had been unusually muted for a lot of the cycle, then abruptly reappeared throughout the drop. He checked out Binance deposits from wallets below 1 BTC—the “shrimps,” often probably the most jumpy.

On Feb. 5, shrimp inflows to Binance exceeded “1,000 BTC in a single day,” versus a month-to-month common “nearer to 365 BTC,” in line with Darkfost. He famous the final comparable spike was in July 2025, however in a really completely different market regime, when Bitcoin was nonetheless pushing towards new highs. Same sort of stream, completely completely different temper.

Darkfost additionally tied the transfer to cost-basis dynamics which have more and more squeezed holders because the correction deepened. He stated Bitcoin “has put all STH below strain and is now starting to check LTH,” including that the primary long-term holder cohorts—6 to 12 months and 12 to 18 months—had been already underwater with price bases of “$103,188” and “$85,849.”

He pointed to a response after worth reached the realized worth of the 18-month to 2-year cohort at “$63,654,” calling it “probably an space of curiosity for these holders.” He additionally famous that their rising price foundation suggests higher-cost cash have aged into that bracket.

His take: this was an exhaustion flush, and it received’t reset in a single day. “These capitulation strikes have pushed BTC into an excessive oversold zone that the market will now want time to soak up and digest,” he wrote. After briefly slipping beneath $60,000, Bitcoin rebounded and was “buying and selling once more round $71,000.” Darkfost stated that stabilization lined up with retail flows drifting again towards their common.

That takes one apparent supply of promote strain off the desk. The larger query is whether or not this was the low—or only a breather in a nasty, high-volatility regime.

At press time, BTC traded at $69,525.