Arthur Hayes Puts $100K On Hyperliquid (HYPE) Outrunning Every $1B+ Altcoin

Arthur Hayes is popping a long-running debate about Hyperliquid right into a price-denominated wager, staking $100,000 that HYPE will beat each altcoin with a $1 billion-plus market cap over an outlined window.

“Since HYPE is dangerous Kyle Samani let’s make a wager,” Hayes wrote on X. “I wager that from 00:00 UTC 10 Feb 2026 to 00:00 UTC 31 July 2026 $HYPE will out carry out any shitcoin >$1bn mcap on coingecko in USD phrases. You select your champion. Loser donates $100k to a charity of the winner’s alternative.”

Hayes’ put up landed within the wake of a pointed takedown from Multicoin Capital co-founder Kyle Samani, who known as Hyperliquid “in most respects the whole lot mistaken with crypto,” whereas itemizing objections “Founder actually fled his house nation to construct, overtly facilitates crime and terror, closed supply, permissioned.”

Why Hyperliquid Could Be Superior

The sparring unfolded alongside a separate thread of bullish commentary on Hyperliquid’s push into non-crypto derivatives by way of HIP-3, a product line that has begun itemizing fairness and commodity perpetuals. Blockworks analyst Shaunda Devens, whose analysis was shared by Jon Charbonneau, argued that HIP-3 is already pulling significant exercise outdoors pure crypto circulate.

In devens’ evaluation of HIP-3 silver perpetuals versus CME/COMEX Micro Silver futures, Hyperliquid is framed much less as a meme-driven venue and extra as an try to construct an always-on, order-driven derivatives marketplace for conventional underlyings. The report notes that “TradFi devices now [account for] 31% of venue quantity” with “day by day notional above $5B,” positioning the silver contract as a stress take a look at of whether or not these markets can maintain up when the underlying is shifting quick.

“Pre-crash, Hyperliquid was aggressive at top-of-book for the sizes that dominate perp circulate,” the report stated, citing a 2.4 bps median unfold versus 3 bps on COMEX, and “median slippage was 0.5 bps from the benchmark.” But it additionally emphasised the capability hole: roughly “~$230k inside ±5 bps on Hyperliquid vs. ~$13M on COMEX,” a distinction that issues as clip sizes rise.

That trade-off sharpened throughout a violent silver selloff, when the report says each venues degraded however Hyperliquid developed a heavier execution tail. It cites a quick dislocation of greater than 400 bps versus the benchmark earlier than imply reversion by way of funding, and notes that “1% of Hyperliquid trades printed >50 bps from mid, vs. none on COMEX.”

Hayes’ wager successfully reframes the dispute: not whether or not Hyperliquid is philosophically “good” or “dangerous,” however whether or not its development narrative, particularly round 24/7 entry to non-crypto threat, interprets into token outperformance relative to large-cap friends.

If the following six months validate the thesis embedded in HIP-3: tight execution for retail-weighted circulate, steady buying and selling when legacy venues are closed, and a path to much less cycle-sensitive income, HYPE’s relative efficiency turns into a easy scoreboard. If not, the wager presents a high-visibility approach for critics to check whether or not the market is pricing substance or momentum.

At press time, HYPE traded at $32.275.

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