Robinhood (HOOD) Stock Price Risks 40% Crash as Crypto Drag Outweighs Earnings
The Robinhood inventory value has rebounded almost 23% since its February 5 low close to $71. On the floor, this seems to be like a robust restoration for HOOD. The firm additionally simply posted its greatest monetary yr on report.
But the larger image tells a special story. Weak crypto exercise, fading cash flows, and rising technical dangers counsel this rebound might not final. For now, draw back strain stays the dominant pressure.
Earnings Strength and Crypto Drag Are Pulling in Opposite Directions
Robinhood delivered a strong financial performance in 2025. Full-year income reached about $4.5 billion, up greater than 50% yr over yr. Net earnings hit almost $1.9 billion. This fall income rose 27%, and earnings per share beat expectations. Options buying and selling, curiosity earnings, and Gold subscriptions all grew sharply.
These numbers present that the core enterprise is bettering. Robinhood is not dependent solely on meme shares and crypto buying and selling. It is changing into extra diversified and extra secure.
The company also launched the public testnet for Robinhood Chain. This is an Ethereum Layer 2 community constructed on Arbitrum. It goals to assist tokenized shares, 24/7 buying and selling, and DeFi instruments. This is a long-term development transfer, not a short-term value driver. But crypto stays an issue.
Crypto income fell 38% yr over yr to about $221 million. This drop was linked to Bitcoin’s pullback and weaker buying and selling volumes. Because crypto nonetheless contributes a big share of exercise, the slowdown harm whole income. This fall gross sales missed analyst estimates by roughly $50 million.
Markets centered on that miss.
After earnings, the inventory fell round 7% in prolonged buying and selling. This confirmed that buyers nonetheless see crypto as a significant danger. Even sturdy earnings and new merchandise couldn’t offset that weak point. Post that underwhelming crypto-specific efficiency, the Robinhood inventory value appears to have rekindled the fears related to a bearish sample break.
HOOD value broke beneath the falling channel on February 2, triggering a close to 30% breakdown. While $71 supplied assist, the crypto-led weak point might quickly try to push the costs down.
That is why the rebound since February 5 seems to be fragile. It is going on inside a broader downtrend, not a brand new uptrend.
Weak Money Flow and Death Cross Risk Signal Fading Confidence
Price motion alone doesn’t clarify all the pieces. Money stream indicators present that massive buyers stay cautious.
One key device is Chaikin Money Flow, or CMF. CMF combines value and quantity to point out whether or not massive gamers are shopping for or promoting. When it stays above zero, establishments are normally accumulating. When it stays beneath, they’re exiting or staying away.
Right now, Robinhood’s CMF stays detrimental.
Even throughout the 23% rebound, CMF did not reclaim the zero line. It additionally stayed beneath its falling trendline. This implies that the rally lacked sturdy big-wallet backing.
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That makes rebounds unstable. Moving averages add one other warning.
An Exponential Moving Average, or EMA, offers extra weight to latest costs. Traders use them to guage pattern power. When short-term averages fall beneath long-term ones, momentum weakens.
Robinhood is now dealing with a “demise cross” danger. This occurs when the 50-day EMA drops beneath the 200-day EMA. It typically indicators longer-term weak point.
Two bearish crossovers already fashioned on January 30 and February 4. After the January sign, the inventory fell almost 30%. Now, the 50-day is once more transferring towards the 200-day. If this crossover confirms, draw back strain might intensify.
There is just one delicate constructive.
On-Balance Volume, or OBV, compares quantity on up days and down days. It exhibits whether or not consumers or sellers dominate. Between September and February, OBV fashioned larger lows, whereas HOOD made decrease lows. This instructed that some retail buyers have been nonetheless accumulating.
If crypto weak point continues, even this assist might fade. Without sturdy demand from massive wallets, retail shopping for alone isn’t sufficient to reverse a pattern.
New Falling Channel Points to Key Robinhood Stock Price Levels
The chart construction stays bearish.
Robinhood has been trading inside a falling channel since October. A falling channel varieties when value makes decrease highs and decrease lows inside parallel trendlines. It indicators managed however persistent promoting.
Now, a brand new parallel channel is forming based mostly on latest value motion. This up to date construction factors to a possible draw back of greater than 40% if the decrease trendline breaks. The first key HOOD value degree is $71, the final assist zone.
As lengthy as the value stays above it, the rebound has an opportunity to outlive regardless of the crypto drag. A clear break beneath $71 would carry decrease ranges into the image. If that occurs, the following main zone sits close to $55.
On the upside, resistance stays heavy. The HOOD inventory value must reclaim $87 after which $98 to enhance short-term construction. Above that, $107 and $119 act as main obstacles.
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