Polygon (POL) Price Structure Mirrors a 90% Rally Setup — But There’s a Twist
Polygon worth is exhibiting contemporary indicators of restoration after weeks of regular promoting. Since February 11, POL is up almost 13%, and over the previous 24 hours, it has gained round 5.4%, holding most of its rebound close to $0.095.
At first look, the construction appears just like the setup that triggered Polygon’s 90% rally earlier this yr. Price is stabilizing, momentum is enhancing, and patrons are energetic close to help. But this time, one essential factor is lacking. The final rally started after sellers had been absolutely flushed out. This time, that flush has not occurred but.
POL Price Repeats the Old Reversal Pattern, But Without a Clean Seller Flush
Before the January rally, Polygon formed a very clear backside. Between December and early January, the POL worth printed a sharp decrease low in a single transfer. Sellers capitulated. Weak fingers exited. That created a clear base for patrons to step in.
This time, the construction is totally different.
Between January 31 and February 11, POL once more made a decrease low close to $0.087, whereas the Relative Strength Index, or RSI, fashioned a larger low. RSI measures shopping for and promoting energy, and this bullish divergence normally alerts that promoting stress is weakening. But as an alternative of 1 decisive breakdown candle, POL examined the identical help space twice.
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Two separate candles touched the $0.087 zone. This creates a “lower-low zone” as an alternative of a clear decrease low.
That issues. When a market prints a single deep low, it normally means sellers have given up, hinting at exhaustion. When the worth retains revisiting the identical stage, it means sellers are nonetheless energetic. Supply has not been absolutely absorbed but. So regardless that the technical sample appears related, the psychology is totally different.
The market has stabilized, however it has not been absolutely cleansed. That unfinished vendor flush is the inspiration of the whole twist.
Muted Leverage and Rising Shorts Reflect Unfinished Selling Pressure
This incomplete flush is clearly seen within the derivatives knowledge. During the January rally, leverage exploded early.
Open curiosity on Binance jumped from round $16.6 million to over $40 million, rising greater than 140% in a few days. Traders rushed into lengthy positions as quickly as the worth turned. This time, that has not occurred. Since February 11, whereas POL gained almost 13%, open curiosity has stayed close to $18.80 million. There isn’t any robust buildup of leverage but. Possibly hinting at low conviction.
More importantly, funding charges are actually damaging, close to -0.012. Funding charges present which facet dominates futures markets. Negative charges imply brief merchants are paying longs. That alerts rising bearish positioning.
In January, funding was optimistic. Traders had been betting aggressively on upside. Now, shorts are constructing.
This matches completely with the worth construction. Because sellers haven’t been flushed out, merchants are nonetheless comfy betting towards the rally. They see unfinished draw back danger. So as an alternative of chasing longs, many are positioning for pullbacks. That lends a main hit to the supposed rally’s conviction.
This retains leverage restrained and momentum managed. The rally is transferring ahead, however below fixed stress.
Whale Accumulation Is Supporting Price, But Not Forcing Capitulation
While merchants stay cautious, massive holders are behaving otherwise. Since early February, whale holdings have risen from round 7.5 billion to just about 8.75 billion POL, a rise of about 16%. This exhibits that long-term patrons are accumulating quietly.
Their shopping for is the primary motive the worth retains rebounding from the $0.087 space.
But whale accumulation has one other impact. It absorbs provide with out triggering panic. Instead of forcing weak sellers out, whales are slowly taking their cash. That stabilizes the worth however delays capitulation. It is price noting that over the last early-2026 rally, these Polygon whales hardly elevated their stash.
So the market results in between:
- Sellers are nonetheless current (not flushed out)
- Buyers are energetic
- No one is absolutely accountable for the Polygon worth
This is why the worth is rising progressively, not explosively. And that may restrict the rally potential going ahead.
Key Polygon Price Levels Will Decide Whether Sellers Finally Get Flushed
With unfinished promoting stress nonetheless within the system, worth ranges now matter greater than patterns. On the upside, the important thing stage is $0.11.
A clear break above $0.118 would sign that remaining sellers are being overwhelmed. From present ranges, that might be one other 24% transfer. It would seemingly appeal to leverage and weaken brief positions, lastly finishing the flush. Above that, targets open towards $0.137 and $0.186.
On the draw back, the essential help zone is $0.083-$0.087. If POL breaks under that, the lower-low setup fails, and a new one begins forming. That would affirm that sellers nonetheless have management and that the unfinished flush is taking part in out. In that case, the worth may slide towards $0.072 and $0.061.
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