We Asked AI: Is Bitcoin Really in a Bear Market and Where Is the Bottom?
Whenever bitcoin corrects after a extended rally, the common query inside the cryptocurrency neighborhood is whether or not that is one other “wholesome” retracement in a bull market, or the development has modified utterly, and the bears are in full management.
The previous few months, although, do not appear to be a regular correction. Bitcoin traded above $126,000 in early October earlier than it plunged to beneath $100,000 by the finish of the yr. Its spectacular begin to 2026 was rapidly halted, and the asset plummeted to $60,000 final Friday, charting a 52% drop since its all-time high.
What’s maybe much more worrying is the reality that almost all different asset courses, together with the treasured steel market, stored driving high throughout this time, charting consecutive new peaks.
As such, we determined to ask ChatGPT if it believes BTC is certainly in a bear market or whether or not that is one other ‘typical’ correction.
Is It a Bear Market?
The AI resolution acknowledged the substantial crash in early February, indicating that it “represents a main structural shift.”
“Importantly, the $60K zone was a former breakout stage throughout the 2025 rally, which now acts as essential help.”
If the cryptocurrency finds a strong help and stabilizes at these ranges, because it has completed in the previous week, the transfer south may “resemble earlier 50% resets seen throughout robust cycles,” mentioned the AI. However, a breakdown beneath these ranges may “strengthen the bear thesis considerably.”
In conclusion to this query, ChatGPT mentioned that BTC is certainly in a bear market, not less than by the definition of that phrase. The solely factor that is still unsure is the magnitude and period.
Where Is the Bottom?
OpenAI’s platform believes there’s a 35% likelihood that the backside was in at $60,000. However, its more than likely state of affairs envisions not less than yet another leg down that would drive the cryptocurrency to $50,000-$52,000.
“The $50K area represents a robust psychological stage and prior consolidation zone. A transfer right here would mark a roughly 60% drawdown from the all-time high, aligning with extra extreme however nonetheless cyclical corrections.”
ChatGPT additionally outlined two excessive instances, each of which it believes are extremely unlikely – a capitulation crash to $40,000-$45,000 or a full-on investor exodus to beneath $35,000. Nevertheless, it defined that each of those situations would require a huge black swan occasion, reminiscent of FTX’s collapse or a new battle.
Will Bitcoin Endure?
No matter which of the aforementioned situations materializes, ChatGPT stays constructive on bitcoin’s long-term potential. It reminded that the asset has skilled and survived far worse drawdowns of as much as 80% and even 90% in its early days.
“The most lifelike backside vary at present sits between $50K and $60K, with a deeper flush towards the low-$40Ks potential if macro situations worsen. However, bitcoin has proven excessive resiliency in the previous, and there’s not a lot proof to counsel in any other case now.”
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