Bitcoin has 6 weeks to avoid 2026 being the most bearish period in history – one price matters now
The scoop: Bitcoin is on tempo for a fifth straight month-to-month drop if February closes crimson, its longest shedding streak since 2018, whereas spot ETF flows flip persistently unfavourable, reinforcing a brand new actuality: post-ETF BTC is buying and selling like a rates-and-risk instrument. If it does not reverse in March and reclaim $80k, it’s going to equal its worst period ever.
Bitcoin has closed decrease in every of the previous 4 months, and February is unfavourable mid-month, establishing a fifth straight month-to-month decline.
That final result would mark Bitcoin’s longest month-to-month shedding streak in six years, a stretch now being framed much less as chart trivia and extra as a macro stress take a look at for the post-ETF market construction.
Data exhibits October 2025 by way of January 2026 every completed down, with November’s loss the deepest in the run.
February opened close to $78,626 earlier than buying and selling in the high $60,000s round mid-month.
As of press time. Bitcoin trades at roughly $68,800, about 44–45% under the October peak at $126,000, and 12.6% down for the month.
The all-time file for month-to-month drawdowns sits at 6 months from January 2017 to August 2018. Bitcoin would equal that file if March additionally ends negatively.
Rates expectations and ETF flows
The drawdown arrived alongside a repricing in charges expectations that has saved danger belongings delicate to every incremental change in the “increased for longer” path, in accordance to Ned Davis Research figures cited by Business Insider.
Fed funds futures proceed to lean towards a maintain into March 2026, with odds closely weighted towards no change.
A stickier coverage path tends to increase the hurdle for duration-like trades, and Bitcoin’s current correlation profile has left it buying and selling as a macro beta expression in many portfolios, notably when fairness volatility rises.
That macro channel is now being bolstered by the ETF wrapper itself.
Recent spot Bitcoin ETF buying and selling classes are skewing unfavourable, with roughly $2 billion in internet outflows over the final 3 weeks and a number of single-day totals in the lots of of tens of millions.
In this regime, draw back can persist with no crypto-specific catalyst if redemptions and risk-parity-style de-risking maintain pressuring the tape.
On-chain value foundation defines key ranges
Glassnode’s latest on-chain work frames the selloff as a tightening contest between overhead provide and cost-basis assist.
The agency stated the True Market Mean close to $80,200 has acted as overhead resistance, whereas the Realized Price close to $55,800 has served as traditionally confirmable “re-engagement” territory throughout deeper resets.
Between these poles, Glassnode maps a dense cost-basis zone round $66,900–$70,600, a band that has functioned as a near-term reference for whether or not holders are defending mixture entry factors or capitulating into lower-liquidity pockets.
Those ranges present a easy ahead hall for the subsequent one to three months as a result of they line up with what different market commentary is already watching.
I’ve advised a number of occasions that the seemingly (*6*), and the sooner Bitcoin hits that stage, the extra seemingly it’s to steadily climb again into the 2028 halving.
Barron’s described a $55,000–$60,000 space as a believable volatility zone, pointing to the convergence of the 200-day transferring common close to $58,000 and an estimated common buy price round $56,000 as potential anchors if promoting accelerates.
Put in another way, from roughly $68,800, the market is debating a path again towards the $80,200 “imply” space versus a slide towards the $55,800 realized-price area.
Each transfer represents a high-teens proportion swing.
| Path (subsequent 4–12 weeks) | What would wish to change | Levels in focus (sources) | Range framing |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stabilization and vary commerce | Outflows sluggish, macro doesn’t tighten additional, cost-basis consumers defend entries | $66,900–$70,600 assist; ~$80,200 overhead (Glassnode) | ~$65,000–$82,000 (Glassnode) |
| Deeper deleveraging | Cost-basis band fails, risk-off persists, compelled promoting expands | $60,000 retest, then ~$55,800 realized price (Glassnode); $55,000–$60,000 zone (Barron’s) | ~$55,000–$60,000, with decrease stress tails mentioned under |
| Reclaim | Macro tone eases and inflows return, price recaptures overhead provide | Reclaim ~$80,200 (Glassnode) | ~$80,000–$95,000+ (level-dependent) |
The draw back tails being circulated are additionally explicitly macro-linked.
Ned Davis Research, through Business Insider, framed a “crypto winter” stress case utilizing prior bear-market averages (about 84% drawdowns over roughly 225 days), which might place Bitcoin close to $31,000 if history have been to rhyme at the excessive.
A separate Business Insider report cited a Zacks strategist outlining a $40,000 path over three to six months, tying the situation to liquidity circumstances and the length of prior winter intervals.
Those will not be consensus targets, however they operate as boundary markers for a way far macro-driven de-risking can journey when flows and positioning are one-sided.
For the the rest of February, the calendar itself turns into the set off.
A crimson month-to-month shut would formalize a five-month run of declines and achieve this at a time when ETF circulation persistence, on-chain cost-basis protection, and fed-funds pricing all level to Bitcoin buying and selling as a rates-and-risk instrument fairly than a standalone idiosyncratic market.
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