Standard Chartered slashes XRP price target by 65% as whales send millions of tokens to Binance
XRP is sliding even as the XRP Ledger (XRPL) rolls out options that supporters have lengthy framed as a bridge to institutional adoption.
According to CryptoSlate’s knowledge, the token has been buying and selling round $1.47, whereas a combination of contemporary provide indicators, cooling marginal demand, and broader risk-off habits continues to strain the price.
At the identical time, banking large Standard Chartered reportedly lower its end-2026 XRP target by 65% to $2.80 from $8.00 as half of broader reductions to main crypto forecasts.
The disconnect is acquainted in crypto, as blockchain networks can ship significant upgrades, exercise can rise, and costs can nonetheless fall if the market is concentrated on near-term liquidity.
That is what XRP holders are confronting now. On one facet are infrastructure adjustments such as Permissioned Domains and Token Escrow, instruments designed to make a public ledger extra usable for regulated contributors.
On the opposite hand, there are indicators that always matter extra within the brief run, together with giant holders shifting cash to exchanges, exchange-traded fund flows turning into uneven, and derivatives positioning suggesting that merchants are leaning defensive.
The result’s a market that treats XRP much less as a single-asset expertise story and extra as a high-beta commerce that responds rapidly to shifts in provide and demand.
Whales are again on Binance, and the market reads it as provide
One of the clearest near-term indicators is coming from on-chain flows into Binance.
CryptoQuant’s Whale Transfer Flow to Binance, tracked as a 30-day shifting common, has risen to roughly 82.1 million XRP. This is the best studying since final December and exhibits a re-acceleration after a quieter stretch.
Notably, that metric isn’t a verdict that whales are promoting.
However, it’s a reminder that cash coming into an alternate are ones that may be offered rapidly, and the market tends to deal with this as a provide overhang till confirmed in any other case.
The numbers make the instinct concrete. At roughly $1.47, 82.1 million XRP represents roughly $120.7 million of notional supply appearing on a major venue over a 30-day window.
When demand is powerful, such availability will be absorbed with out important harm, and costs may even rise as consumers compete for liquidity.
However, when demand is weak or inconsistent, it usually requires decrease costs to establish the following section of consumers.
This is why alternate influx indicators matter most after they coincide with a wobble in marginal demand.
If the market believes there’s a regular bid that reliably steps in, provide transfers change into background noise. If that perception breaks, the identical transfers change into price-moving.
The ETF bid turned uneven, and that modified the absorption check
This elevated provide comes as the demand facet has been much less constant within the ETF wrapper. XRP spot ETF circulate knowledge point out notable outflows following an preliminary interval of uninterrupted inflows.
Data from SoSo Value point out that the 4 XRP ETF products have skilled internet outflows totaling greater than $46 million over the previous 4 weeks.
This contrasts considerably with the fund’s early efficiency, which drew in fresh capital of over $1 billion during a 35-day inflow streak.
Those numbers matter as a result of ETF flows can act like a gentle bid, till they don’t. Even if outflows later stabilize, the message merchants take from a streak ending is rapid.
The market turns into much less prepared to assume {that a} structural purchaser is displaying up daily. That shift makes XRP extra delicate to provide indicators, together with the whale-to-exchange transfers now displaying up on Binance.
In follow, merchants start conducting an absorption check. When ETF flows are persistently constructive, giant deposits to exchanges will be soaked up and price can maintain.
However, when the ETF tape turns unsure, the identical deposits change into tougher to digest, and the market tends to reprice decrease till it finds consumers prepared to step in with out the consolation of a gentle ETF bid.
Derivatives are crowded bearish, which will increase draw back threat and upside sensitivity
Meanwhile, derivatives are including one other layer to the setup.
Data from CoinGlass point out that XRP funding charges have turned unfavorable over the previous few weeks, with repeated spikes above -0.02%.
Negative funding usually means shorts are paying to maintain positions, an indication that bearish positioning is crowded.
Crowded bearish positioning is a double-edged sign. If spot demand stays mushy and provide continues to hit exchanges, the market can grind decrease as a result of shorts really feel snug urgent, and longs are reluctant to step in.
In this case, token liquidity thins out, upward bounces are offered, and the price can proceed to decline even and not using a contemporary catalyst.
At the identical time, heavy brief positioning makes the market extra delicate to upside surprises. If any demand catalyst exhibits up, a renewed ETF influx streak, a macro aid rally, or a transparent rollover in alternate inflows, the transfer can speed up rapidly as shorts cowl.
That is why a weak tape can coexist with sudden, sharp rebounds in crypto.
For now, the derivatives sign is aligned with the opposite near-term indicators. The market is positioned defensively, which makes it tougher for constructive information on the protocol facet to translate into rapid price energy.
The upgrades are actual, however they don’t seem to be prompt XRP-buy mechanisms
The distinction with XRP Ledger improvement makes this second irritating for long-term holders. The chain has shipped upgrades that talk straight to the institutional narrative.
Permissioned Domains (XLS-80) went dwell on Feb. 4 with 91% validator approval. The characteristic is designed to create credential-gated zones on a public ledger, a framework that may assist regulated participation with out turning the community into a personal chain.
Token Escrow (XLS-85) activated on Feb. 12, extending XRPL’s native escrow performance past XRP to Trustline-based tokens and multi-purpose token constructions.
At the identical time, Permissioned DEX would launch on Feb. 17. This builds on different options and permits establishments to take part in compliant on-chain exercise whereas protecting delicate person knowledge off the ledger.
These additions strengthen the pitch that XRPL wants to be an institutional settlement layer, with instruments that make compliance and conditional settlement extra sensible.
However, upgrades such as these are usually not rapid demand drivers for XRP itself, as their adoption takes time, and integrations have to be constructed.
For context, Token Escrow might enhance the quantity of XRP locked up as reserves, however the impact is probably going to be modest at this stage.
XRPL ties sure on-ledger objects to proprietor reserves held in XRP. Even so, the incremental demand generated by Token Escrow could also be small relative to the provision forces at the moment driving price actions.
Using the reserve math of assuming 0.2 XRP per object, 100,000 new escrow objects would require roughly 20,000 XRP in extra reserves. Even at 1 million escrow objects, the reserve requirement rises to roughly 200,000 XRP.
In different phrases, Token Escrow strengthens the community’s settlement plumbing, however the near-term XRP reserve demand it creates stays minor relative to the volumes implied by the big alternate inflows of over $120 million.
That doesn’t imply the community is stagnant. XRPL utilization indicators have been enhancing.
XRPL DEX activity has surged, with a 14-day shifting common of DEX transaction counts reaching about 1.014 million, a 13-month high, primarily based on CryptoQuant knowledge.
At the identical time, Ripple’s stablecoin footprint is increasing, with RLUSD’s market capitalization estimated at roughly $1.52 billion.
This is the paradox of the second. Usage indicators can enhance whereas price falls if the brand new exercise doesn’t translate into incremental XRP demand on the similar tempo as the provision and threat dynamics driving the market.
What buyers are watching subsequent, and the eventualities being traded
Over the following 4 to 12 weeks, XRP’s path is probably going to hinge on whether or not provide indicators cool sooner than demand returns. The market is already pricing a set of eventualities, even when merchants describe them in a different way.
One situation is bear continuation, which might outcome within the token buying and selling at roughly $1.10 to $1.35. In that path, whale-to-exchange flows keep elevated, and ETF flows stay inconsistent, protecting spot demand too mushy to soak up provide.
Another is base-building, and XRP would oscillate between $1.35 to $1.80. In that model, alternate inflows plateau, and ETF flows stabilize into small net-positive weeks, permitting the price to kind a flooring even and not using a macroeconomic tailwind.
The third is a reflexive rebound, $1.80 to $2.40. This consequence would possible require a brief streak of stronger ETF inflows or macro aid that collides with crowded bearish derivatives positioning, forcing cowl and accelerating upside.
The core level isn’t the precise vary. It is the mechanism. XRPL’s roadmap might strengthen the long-term case, however within the close to time period, XRP is still priced by the marginal buyer and seller.
Currently, the marginal indicators are extra provide arriving on exchanges, weaker ETF circulate assist, and a market temper that rewards warning.
If these inputs flip, even modestly, the identical market that’s ignoring institutional-grade upgrades at present can reprice them rapidly.
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