Bitcoin’s ‘Big Bad’ Revealed — Year-High Whale Metric Could Drive Price to $60,000

The Bitcoin worth has traded virtually flat over the previous 24 hours, hovering close to $67,600. But 30-day losses inform a distinct story. The worth dropped roughly 27% month-on-month. This sudden intraday pause won’t sign restoration. It might be a short maintain earlier than the following leg down.

One of the strongest holder teams is flashing aggressive distribution alerts. These patterns match historic setups that preceded sharp corrections. The hazard is hiding in plain sight.

Bear Flag Breakdown and Year-High Whale Ratio Point to Historic Pattern

Bitcoin has already broken down from a bear flag pattern. The construction carried roughly 40% crash danger from the breakdown level. The sample itself appears to be like weak. But one thing a lot greater appeared alongside it.

The Exchange Whale Ratio spiked to 0.81 on February 14. That marked the very best studying in a yr. This metric tracks the ratio of the highest 10 whale inflows to whole change inflows.

History reveals this sample repeating with scary precision. In March 2025, the ratio hit 0.62 when Bitcoin traded round $84,100. Price then surged roughly 3.7% to $87,200 inside per week as whales front-ran the transfer. But by early April, Bitcoin crashed roughly 12.6% to $76,200 as distribution started.

The identical factor occurred in November. The ratio spiked to 0.70 when the value sat close to $88,400. Bitcoin rallied about 5.2% to $93,000 after which collapsed roughly 7.4% to $86,000 by mid-December. The sample is obvious. Whales place early, worth rises briefly, then heavy promoting begins.

Now the ratio hit 0.81 in mid-February when Bitcoin traded close to $69,700. That’s the very best whale-metric spike in 12 months. Price already began falling and at the moment sits round $67,000. But the ratio stays elevated at 0.65.

That degree nonetheless sits within the historic profit-booking zone based mostly on previous corrections. Therefore, one other fast BTC worth bounce adopted by a deeper correction won’t be discounted.

A hidden bearish divergence shaped on the 12-hour chart between February 8 and February 16. Price made a decrease high throughout this era. The Relative Strength Index (RSI), a momentum indicator, concurrently made the next high. This mixture alerts pullback continuation moderately than reversal.

All three alerts level towards deeper correction. But why blame whales particularly for this weak point?

Whale Addresses Drop as Strongest Supply Cluster Comes Into Focus

Some may argue the Exchange Whale Ratio spiked as a result of whole change inflows dropped. But precise whale tackle counts show in any other case.

Whale addresses holding 1,000 BTC or extra dropped from 1,959 on January 22 to 1,939 at the moment. That’s a lack of 20 whale addresses in the course of the correction. These holders didn’t disappear randomly. They distributed holdings whereas the value fell. The addresses dropped alongside the value decline. They didn’t purchase the dip. They created the dip.

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The sample reveals whales rode worth rebounds quickly, then offered throughout corrections. Their conviction is weak. When sturdy holders accumulate throughout weak point, it creates shopping for stress. When they distribute throughout weak point, it accelerates the decline. Bitcoin’s 27% month-to-month drop is smart once you see 20 whale addresses or at the very least 20,000 BTC exiting.

But the true hazard emerges when the place provide is concentrated. UTXO Realized Price Distribution reveals value foundation clusters throughout the market. It reveals worth ranges the place essentially the most provide was created. These zones act as sturdy help or resistance relying on market course.

The strongest present cluster sits close to $66,800. This degree holds most provide focus beneath the present worth. It represents the most important value foundation zone within the close to time period. Breaking via requires huge promoting stress. Retail merchants don’t have the scale to push via such a thick provide. Only whales possess that firepower, making them the potential ‘Big Bad’ for the Bitcoin worth.

Here’s the issue. Those identical whales are already distributing. The Exchange Whale Ratio proved it. The tackle depend drop confirmed it. They’re actively promoting into the market. The present worth close to $67,600 sits dangerously shut to that $66,800 cluster.

Critical Bitcoin Price Support Holds Key to $60,000 Crash Risk

The first main help degree sits at $66,600. This aligns intently with the $66,800 URPD cluster. Both ranges signify the identical technical and supply-based zone. Bitcoin at the moment trades simply 1.6% above this crucial help. If whales proceed distributing this degree received’t maintain lengthy.

A break beneath $66,600 opens the trail towards $60,000. That represents roughly 12% extra draw back from present ranges. Bitcoin briefly touched this zone on February 6 earlier than bouncing. But the setup now appears to be like a lot weaker than it did then. The whale ratio wasn’t at yearly highs. Hidden bearish divergence hadn’t shaped but.

Now all these warnings flash concurrently whereas the value hovers simply above the strongest provide cluster. Breaking $66,600 would seemingly set off cascade promoting because the URPD zone fails. Holders sitting on the value foundation close to $66,800 would panic. Leveraged longs positioned for restoration would get liquidated. The transfer towards $60,000 might occur quicker than the preliminary breakdown.

On the upside, Bitcoin wants a clear break above $71,600 to present any actual power. That would invalidate the fast bearish construction and recommend consumers are regaining management. Full sample invalidation solely occurs above $79,300. Until Bitcoin reclaims that degree, the bear flag breakdown stays lively, and draw back danger dominates.

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