Analyst Claims $5 Billion XRP Selling Flow on Upbit: What It Means for Price
XRP (XRP) value prolonged its slide on Wednesday, including to a downtrend that has erased 44% of its worth over the previous yr.
Amid this, a market analyst has highlighted uncommon buying and selling exercise rising from South Korea’s largest crypto trade, elevating questions on its potential influence on XRP’s value dynamics.
Study of 82 Million Trades Flags Structural Selling in XRP/KRW Market on Upbit
Crypto analyst Dom claims to have uncovered what he describes as an almost year-long, multi-billion-dollar XRP promoting pipeline. In a thread printed on X (previously Twitter), Dom mentioned his findings are based mostly on 82 million tick-level XRP/KRW trades on Upbit, alongside 444 million trades from Binance for comparability.
According to his evaluation, Upbit’s XRP pair has recorded a internet unfavourable cumulative quantity delta each month for the previous 10 months.
“It began with yesterday’s value motion. -57M XRP in CVD over 17 hours. It regarded insane. So I ran forensic queries – bot fingerprinting, iceberg detection, wash commerce checks. The promoting was actual. Algorithmic. 61% of trades fired inside 10ms. Single bot working 17 hours straight with one 33-second pause,” he wrote.
Dom highlighted a number of months with significantly heavy negative cumulative volume delta (CVD), together with April (-165 million XRP), July (-197 million XRP), October (-382 million XRP), and January (-370 million XRP). In whole, he reviews that just one of 46 weeks within the pattern interval confirmed internet optimistic shopping for strain.
“And it’s not ‘the market’ – Binance XRP/USDT carries 2-5x much less promote strain on the identical coin (shocker). In June, Binance was internet optimistic whereas Upbit bled -218M. The hourly correlation between the 2 venues is barely 0.37. Upbit’s circulate is essentially its personal factor,” the put up added.
Dom argues the promoting appears algorithmic. Between 57% and 60% of trades have been executed inside 10 milliseconds, a sample usually related to automated techniques. He additionally noticed that promote orders regularly appeared in round-number sizes resembling 10, 100, or 1,000 XRP.
Meanwhile, purchase orders have been typically fractional quantities like 2.537 XRP, in keeping with KRW-denominated retail purchases.
“Ten million fractional purchase orders over 10 months. Compared to the promote aspect working mechanical spherical quantity clips. Two fully completely different profiles buying and selling towards one another on the identical venue,” the analyst added.
Furthermore, the analyst famous that from April to September, XRP on Upbit reportedly traded at a 3% to six% low cost to Binance, a “reverse Kimchi Discount.”
“The sellers have been accepting 6% worse fills than out there on world markets, for many months. They don’t care in regards to the value. They want KRW, are mandated to make use of Upbit, and/or are Korean holders taking revenue,” he said. “Then October 10 occurred. The premium has solely briefly gone unfavourable since and the sellers? They doubled their every day price. From -6.3M/day to -11.2M/day.”
He estimates that the general exercise accounts for 3.3 billion XRP, price $5 billion, in “internet promoting.” This represents about 5.4% of the token’s circulating provide. While Dom doesn’t establish a particular entity behind the exercise, he describes the circulate as constant, 24/7, and infrastructure-like reasonably than discretionary buying and selling.
“So who has sufficient XRP to promote 300-400M per thirty days for a yr straight, doesn’t care about 6% reductions, runs similar algo infrastructure 24/7 and desires KRW particularly or is in some walled backyard and might solely use Upbit? AND who’re they promoting to? Who’s been on the opposite aspect of that commerce? It could possibly be 1 entity, 50 entities or 10k folks I’ll allow you to speculate,” Dom remarked.
Why Does This Matter?
This issues as a result of sustained, large-scale promoting could affect value dynamics over time. A constant circulate of promote orders could restrict upward momentum, intensify declines during times of market stress, and soak up shopping for demand earlier than it interprets into significant value appreciation.
The influence is especially related provided that XRP was the most traded asset on Upbit in 2025. If this sample is correct, it might recommend {that a} important supply of provide has been lively inside one of many world’s most lively XRP markets, with retail members regularly on the alternative aspect of these trades.
Should that promoting strain lower or cease, general market conduct may shift because the steadiness between provide and demand adjusts.
The findings come as XRP balances on Upbit have reached a one-year high, exceeding 6.4 billion XRP, accounting for almost 10% of the circulating provide.
In distinction, trade reserves continued to say no on Binance, reflecting a divergence between Korean XRP traders and members in different markets.
Taken collectively, the reported structural promoting on Upbit and the rise in XRP balances on the trade level to a sustained circulate of tokens circulating inside that venue. At the identical time, contrasting reserve developments and accumulation patterns noticed on different exchanges spotlight a divergence in regional market behavior.
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