The Market Priced in Cuts, the Fed Mentioned Hikes. What It Means For Bitcoin Price?
Minutes from the January assembly present fee hikes are usually not off the desk. If inflation stalls, policymakers are able to tighten once more. That is a direct warning to threat markets.
For Bitcoin value, this flips the script. The market was leaning towards cuts. More liquidity. Easier circumstances. Now the Fed is signaling the reverse.
Higher charges. Tighter liquidity. And that modifications every part for crypto.
Key Takeaways
- The Signal: Fed officers mentioned “upward changes” to charges if inflation stays above goal ranges.
- The Split: The vote was 10-2 to carry charges, however a big “hawkish” contingent is pushing again in opposition to cuts.
- The Risk: Higher-for-longer charges sometimes drain liquidity, creating headwinds for Bitcoin and ETF inflows.
Why Does This Matter for Crypto and Bitcoin Price?
Markets had been relaxed. Cuts in 2026 felt nearly assured. Now that confidence acquired shaken once more.
The Fed held charges at 3.5% to three.75%, hitting pause after three straight cuts in late 2025. But the tone was not delicate. Inside the dialogue, a hawkish group made it clear they don’t seem to be prepared to vow extra easing.
hawkish fed stance dampening macro sentiment
— Binan Smart Kid
(@Binansmartkid) February 18, 2026
Some officers even floated “upward changes” if inflation sticks round. That is an enormous shift. The market had assumed a clean path decrease. The minutes analysis say in any other case.
The Fed desires clear proof that disinflation is actual earlier than reducing once more. That places severe weight on the February CPI print. If inflation runs scorching, fee hikes transfer from concept again to actuality.
What Happens Next?
Pricing is getting messy. CME futures nonetheless present a 94% probability of a pause in March. But the hike threat is now not zero.
Now all of it comes right down to inflation information. If the subsequent print runs scorching, the Fed fears get validated. If not, this scare would possibly fade simply as quick because it appeared.
Discover: Here are the crypto likely to explode!
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