Ethereum Struggles Below $2,000, Yet BitMine Sees Rebound: Here’s What They’re Watching

Ethereum (ETH) is holding under $2,000, leaving many traders underwater because the downtrend extends into February 2026.

Despite the sustained weak point, BitMine has maintained a bullish stance on Ethereum. This raises a key query: Is their confidence pushed by narrative or sentiment, or is there one other issue behind their conviction?

Ethereum’s Pain Reaches ninth Decile: What Does That Mean For The Price?

In an in depth put up on X (previously Twitter), BitMine highlighted the analysis by Sean Farrell, Fundstrat’s Head of Digital Asset Strategy, specializing in Ethereum’s realized worth. This is an on-chain valuation metric that displays the typical acquisition price of all cash at present in circulation.

According to the info, Ethereum’s realized worth stands at $2,241. At the time of the evaluation, the asset was trading near $1,934. 

This leaves the typical holder in the red. According to Fundstrat’s mannequin, the “loss for realized worth was 22%.”

The analysis compared the present drawdown to prior cycle lows. During the 2022 bear market, Ethereum traded as a lot as 39% under its realized worth. In 2025, the low cost reached roughly 21%. 

“If we apply this ‘loss’ to the present realized ETH worth of $2,241, we get implied ‘lows’ for ETH. Using 2022, this suggests $1,367. Using 2025, this suggests $1,770,” the evaluation famous.

Using a decile evaluation, the put up revealed that the present drawdown falls into the ninth decile (extraordinarily high). For context, a decile evaluation is a quantitative methodology utilized in statistics, finance, and advertising and marketing to phase a dataset into 10 equal-sized teams (deciles) based mostly on the distribution of a particular variable.

The information means that the median 12-month ahead return on this decile was roughly 81%, with a 12-month win ratio of 87%. In different phrases, in most historic situations when ETH reached related drawdown ranges, it was buying and selling increased one 12 months later.

“Is this the underside? Seems like we’re closing in on that low. Looking past the near-term, the chance/reward for ETH is optimistic,” the put up learn.

BitMine Chairman Tom Lee previously emphasized that sharp drawdowns are a recurring function of Ethereum’s worth historical past. Since 2018, ETH has skilled eight separate declines of fifty% or extra from native highs, suggesting that corrections of this magnitude have occurred roughly as soon as per 12 months.

In 2025, Ethereum fell 64% between January and March. Despite that steep drop, the asset later rebounded significantly.

“ETH sees V-shaped recoveries from main lows. This occurred in every of the 8 prior declines of fifty% or extra. An analogous restoration is predicted in 2026. The finest funding alternatives in crypto have offered themselves after declines. Think again to 2025, the only finest entry factors in crypto occurred after markets fell sharply resulting from tariff issues,” Lee mentioned.

Ethereum Recovery Could Be Critical for BitMine’s $7 Billion Underwater Position

If Ethereum delivers a sustained restoration with sturdy upside returns, it might symbolize a significant inflection level for traders, significantly BitMine. The firm’s unrealized losses have expanded to roughly $7 billion, in keeping with CryptoQuant information.

At the identical time, BitMine seems to be reinforcing its bullish stance by means of continued accumulation. Lookonchain reported that the agency bought 10,000 ETH from Kraken at the moment.

This transaction adopted a a lot bigger single-day acquisition of 35,000 ETH. BitMine acquired 20,000 ETH from BitGo and 15,000 ETH from FalconX.

Taken collectively, the purchases recommend that regardless of mounting unrealized losses, BitMine is positioning for a possible upside situation fairly than decreasing publicity.

The put up Ethereum Struggles Below $2,000, Yet BitMine Sees Rebound: Here’s What They’re Watching appeared first on BeInCrypto.