When Should We Expect The Next ‘Greed’ Zone? Crypto Sentiment And Timing In 2026
Cryptocurrency markets began 2026 in an especially pessimistic mode. The sentiment measures have been all the way down to the Extreme Fear class, which signifies market bottoms and never a manic run-up. The subsequent query now for analysts, merchants, and long-term traders is when the following zone of Greed could come, indicating a high bullishness and total confidence out there. To view this timeline, it’s obligatory to try not solely up-to-date sentiment knowledge but additionally the historical past of crypto cycles.
By February 18, 2026, the Crypto Fear & Greed Index, probably the most frequent indicators of the state of market psychology, is just at 9 out of 100, which is evidently within the realm of Extreme Fear. Such a low studying means that merchants and traders, in addition to even institutional merchants, are struggling widespread danger aversion and excessive warning. A rating under 20 has historically been related to protracted sell-offs, risky buying and selling, and the wave of capitulation.
Prior to markets being in a Greed zone, which is usually characterised by a studying of above 60, varied components about worth momentum, investor confidence, macroeconomic stability, and liquidity should change significantly. Nevertheless, researching the proof of sentiment indices, technical indicators, and crypto-cycle patterns, students and market commentators are beginning to map when a motion to the greed sentiment could plausibly occur.
Current Crypto Sentiment: Under the Shadow of Extreme Fear
The temper picture is just not optimistic for the time being. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index has recorded a number of occasions within the single-digit figures, even a document low of 5 in early February 2026, indicating the deepest reluctance out there.
To measure the general investor temper, the measurement consolidates statistics from varied sources, similar to worth volatility, market momentum, social media exercise, quantity of commerce, the dominance of bitcoins out there, and Google search outcomes. A rating beneath 20 is often an Extreme Fear, which signifies that a good portion of the market members are abandoning the chance and minimizing the publicity to digital belongings.
This concern has been the order of the day and has accompanied vital worth contractions. An instance is the case of Bitcoin that retested the help on the ranges of $60,000–$70,000.
This stage has been used as a psychological facet during the last a number of months. These prolonged intervals of bearishness are often indicators of both an extension of the damaging worth motion or a time throughout which the markets take in weak holders after which main, sustained upturns.
This is as a result of some commentators consider that lengthy durations of intense concern, particularly the place sentiment measures are under historic ranges, could result in a change of coronary heart out there psychology. In mid-2022, one other trough in sentiment led to one of many largest bull runs in late 2023 into 2024.
Nonetheless, the interval between the best concern and the beginning of the grasping interval fluctuated considerably all through the cycles, indicating that though a nasty temper generally is a precursor to a subsequent restoration, the method depends on quite a few macro market forces.
Historical Patterns and What They Suggest
The Fear and Greed Index has no predictive nature, and historical past portrays that intervals of Extreme Fear final months earlier than they modify right into a impartial or grasping temper. As an instance, within the 2021 2022 bear market, sentiment fell to concern deep for lengthy intervals earlier than recovering with the revival of the value momentum in 2023.
Another paper by students that research sentiment regimes in cryptocurrency markets factors to the acute sentiment, both concern or greed, as linked to elevated volatility and a possible transition section sooner or later when the promoting strain is drained, and the liquidity stage stabilizes. Although this sort of analysis doesn’t determine any particular date, it means that the outcomes of such escalations to the acute concern territory after which to the territory of greed point out structural adjustments that transcend the short-term worth adjustments.
Further, different technical evaluation frameworks point out that deep sentiment lows together with oversold indicators, like these of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) measurements, could symbolize a sustainable backside interval, out of which markets can develop an upward momentum. Such situations have been noticed in latest analysis and research reviews the place capitulation is seen to be nearly full earlier than reversal units in at the start of the yr 2026.
However, when the sentiment is Greed, signified by an total studying better than 60 on the Fear & Greed Index, extended rallies within the worth, participation of extra individuals (retail and institutional flows), and high ranges of social involvement will probably be related. All these are current, and sentiment remains to be in a really fearful land.
Macro Forces, Market Dynamics, and the Path to Greed
The interplay between the macroeconomic scenario on the earth and the crypto sentiment is likely one of the main causes of the long-term concern scenario within the crypto markets. In the late 2025 and early 2026, the digital belongings have been burdened by the rising rate of interest points, regulatory uncertainty, and traditional market volatility.
Although the value of crossovers indicated its energy in retaining its main help ranges, the temper was nonetheless pessimistic because of the rising inclination of traders to contemplate cryptocurrencies as dangerous belongings which are extra inclined to macroeconomic adjustments.
Nevertheless, traders following cycle bottoms and sentiment extremes now have attainable indications of the place the market is prone to go. The Matrixport sentiment index, which extends the Fear and Greed Index by capturing positioning and volatility, recorded readings of concern of below-zero, and this can be a rarity, one thing the market has sometimes accompanied with a major motion of the main development. Such oversold sentiment is just like previous market bottoms earlier than the development switches.
Similar to this, long-term sentiment readings have just lately reached their lowest stage in 4 years, which means that promoting strain amongst the massive holders could possibly be fading. Analysts at Matrixport view the change of their inner sentiment indicators because the promoting strain beginning to ease, which is an indicator of the attainable formation of a bottoming section. This doesn’t function a direct indicator of a Greed section, nevertheless it does verify the notion that market psychology is perhaps at some extent the place it’s now not in a state of pure panic, however quite stabilization, which will probably be adopted by a substantial quantity of rebound.
The different vital attainable set off of sentiment enchancment is renewed institutional adoption or optimistic regulatory adjustments. Earlier rallies, together with 2020-2021 and 2023-2024, have been boosted as institutional curiosity revived, coupled with higher authorized frameworks of crypto merchandise similar to Bitcoin ETFs. Should the identical occur in 2026, they’d provide the lever that’s required to vary the notion to optimism and finally greed.
When Might Greed Return?
Combining the present sentiment knowledge and historic cycles, technical indicators, and macro forces, most market analysts opine that short-term reduction rallies may be skilled, nevertheless it won’t doubtless be in an prolonged state of greed earlier than extra structural enhancements may be realized.
Technical analysts consider that within the quick time period (1-3 months), there is a sign of reduction rallies whereby Bitcoin and main altcoins could expertise reasonably bouncing jumps.
This could elevate sentiment to a impartial stage, though to not the extent of attracting a full Greed studying. Such rebounds may be pushed by oversold conditions and panic exhaustion because the merchants make opportunistic positions.
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