4 US Economic Events That Could Move Bitcoin In the Final Week of February
Bitcoin enters the ultimate week of February on fragile footing, with macro forces (US financial occasions) as soon as once more dictating short-term route.
After final week’s combined alerts, together with moderating PCE inflation, resilient jobless claims at 206,000, and cautious FOMC minutes, markets stay undecided on the tempo of price cuts forward of the March 17–18 Federal Reserve assembly.
4 US Economic Events That Traders Are Watching Closely
With price expectations finely balanced, this week’s financial calendar may inject recent volatility into crypto markets.
Fed Officials Take the Stage
A crowded slate of Federal Reserve speeches runs from Monday by way of Wednesday, that includes Governors Christopher Waller and Lisa Cook, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee, Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic, and others.
With markets at the moment pricing in two to 3 cuts in 2026, any deviation in tone may rapidly shift price expectations.
Historically, Waller and Bostic have leaned hawkish, emphasizing vigilance in opposition to inflation and knowledge dependence.
If they reiterate issues about “last-mile” disinflation or sign endurance on cuts, Treasury yields may rise alongside the US greenback. Such an consequence may strain Bitcoin and doubtlessly push it decrease.
Conversely, dovish commentary highlighting slowing progress or labor softening may weaken the greenback and spark a reduction rally in threat property.
Clustered appearances additionally improve the threat of intraday swings, notably if messaging lacks cohesion. For Bitcoin merchants, tone, not coverage motion, could also be the key volatility set off this week.
Consumer Confidence
The Conference Board’s February Consumer Confidence Index follows January’s weak 84.5 studying, properly beneath expectations and traditionally in step with recessionary signals.
February is projected to enhance modestly to 87.5, although sentiment stays subdued amid elevated residing prices and protracted inflation.
Last week’s PCE knowledge confirmed inflation at 2.7% year-over-year, with core at 3.0%, reflecting lingering value pressures.
A stronger-than-expected confidence print, notably above 90, would reinforce a resilient shopper narrative and strengthen the “no-landing” thesis.
That may cut back near-term price reduce expectations, raise the greenback, and weigh modestly on Bitcoin.
On the different hand, a draw back shock beneath 85 would spotlight financial fragility. That consequence would doubtless increase rate-cut odds, that are at the moment elevated for March, and supply tailwinds for BTC.
Historically, confidence surprises have triggered 1–2% strikes in Bitcoin, notably when aligned with broader macro developments.
Initial Jobless Claims
Meanwhile, preliminary jobless claims stay one of the timeliest indicators of the labor market. Last week’s drop to 206,000 stunned to the draw back, reinforcing a good employment backdrop that has saved the Fed cautious about easing prematurely. Consensus now expects 215,000.
If claims fall beneath 210,000, it could sign ongoing labor strength and doubtlessly embolden hawkish Fed voices.
That situation may raise yields and modestly strain Bitcoin. Strong employment knowledge tends to delay price reduce expectations, decreasing liquidity help for threat property.
Conversely, a spike above 225,000 would increase issues about labor cooling, notably if paired with softer enterprise surveys.
Such a growth may gasoline recession fears and improve the chance of price cuts—supportive for Bitcoin as merchants anticipate simpler monetary circumstances.
Though weekly claims sometimes generate 0.5–1.5% BTC volatility, the response might be amplified if the knowledge contrasts sharply with earlier Fed commentary.
PPI (Producer Price Index)
January’s PPI (Producer Price Index) will shut out the week, with headline and core readings anticipated round 3.0% year-over-year.
Following final week’s PCE launch, PPI presents upstream perception into inflationary pressures earlier than they attain customers.
A warmer-than-expected core studying above 3.2% would doubtless reignite inflation issues and diminish price reduce bets. That situation may mirror post-PCE weak spot seen not too long ago, pressuring Bitcoin by strengthening the greenback and lifting actual yields.
However, a cooler print beneath 2.8% would reinforce disinflation momentum. Markets would doubtless value in additional aggressive easing, weakening the USD, and doubtlessly pushing Bitcoin towards $70,000.
As a month-end launch, PPI typically solidifies weekly developments. Combined with jobless claims, it may produce 2–3% Bitcoin swings if expectations are materially challenged.
With Bitcoin’s correlation to the Nasdaq and the US dollar close to multi-month highs, macro stays the dominant narrative.
If this week’s knowledge skews dovish, BTC may rally 3–5%. A unified hawkish tone, nonetheless, might set off a pullback of related magnitude. Liquidity expectations, not crypto fundamentals, stay in management.
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