Bitcoin rebounds after $100B tariff whiplash — but $60k options price target hints at bigger risk
Bitcoin’s weekend selloff led to about $100 billion in crypto market worth losses in the course of the reporting interval and was triggered by a sudden burst of tariff coverage uncertainty.
Over the final 24 hours, BTC price had slipped under $65,000, pulling the broader crypto market down with it. The prime digital asset had recovered above $66,000 as of press time, in response to CryptoSlate’s knowledge.
Notably, liquidations amplified the transfer. CoinGlass data confirmed that greater than $500 million in crypto positions have been worn out in the course of the swing, with the biggest single liquidation reported on HTX’s BTC-USDT pair at about $61.51 million.
These losses symbolize the form of pressured unwind that may flip a macro headline into a quick, self-reinforcing transfer in crypto.
As a end result, the crypto market sentiment additionally cracked. According to Alphractal’s knowledge, the crypto Fear and Greed Index fell to five, labeled “Extreme Fear,” a degree not seen since 2019.
Whether merchants deal with that as a contrarian sign or a warning signal, it match the tape as buyers have been de-risking first and asking questions later.
A court docket ruling set off a sequence response, then the coverage path modified once more
The rapid set off of this market rout was political and authorized.
On Feb. 20, the US Supreme Court struck down a broad swath of tariffs imposed underneath the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA).
Reuters later reported that US Customs and Border Protection stated it will halt assortment of these IEEPA tariffs at 12:01 a.m. EST on Tuesday, Feb. 24, greater than three days after the ruling, whereas additionally offering no rapid steerage on refunds.
That alone would have been sufficient to create confusion. Instead, the White House moved shortly to replace the struck-down tariffs with a new framework.
On Feb. 20, President Donald Trump invoked Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974 and imposed a ten% advert valorem momentary import surcharge for 150 days, efficient Feb. 24. He later revised the numbers to fifteen%.
He wrote on Truth Social:
“I, as President of the United States of America, will likely be, efficient instantly, elevating the ten% Worldwide Tariff on Countries, lots of which have been “ripping” the U.S. off for many years, with out retribution (till I got here alongside!), to the absolutely allowed, and legally examined, 15% degree. During the subsequent brief variety of months, the Trump Administration will decide and difficulty the brand new and legally permissible Tariffs, which can proceed our terribly profitable technique of Making America Great Again.”
That sequence issues for crypto as a result of the difficulty was not simply the tariff degree. It was the tempo and unpredictability of the modifications.
Markets needed to course of a court docket determination, a delayed company implementation, a brand new govt workaround, after which a better price, all in the identical information cycle.
For a market that trades across the clock and makes use of leverage closely, that may be a volatility occasion.
The actual macro transmission was uncertainty, not simply tariffs
The crypto market selloff occurred in a macro setting already fragile.
The US Economic Policy Uncertainty Index on FRED printed 706.97 for Feb. 19, a pointy soar that captured how shortly coverage noise had turn into a tradable macro issue.
The separate FRED categorical Trade Policy Uncertainty index was already elevated at 3,027.14433 in December 2025.
In different phrases, crypto was not hit from a relaxed baseline. It was hit in an setting that was already primed for disorderly repricing.
There can be a second layer to the shock, the fiscal and balance-sheet overhang created by the court docket determination.
Penn Wharton Budget Model estimated that reversing the IEEPA tariffs may generate as much as $175 billion in refunds.
It additionally stated IEEPA receipts had been operating at about $500 million per day underneath the prevailing tariff schedule.
Those numbers are massive sufficient to have an effect on Treasury cash flow assumptions, importer stability sheets, and, by extension, the risk premium buyers demand in leveraged or cyclical property.
That is a direct channel into crypto. When macro uncertainty rises, buyers reduce leverage, cut back elective risk, and transfer towards liquidity.
Crypto feels that shortly as a result of it’s typically the primary market the place positioning is gentle sufficient to trim and liquid sufficient to exit.
Meanwhile, the tariff story additionally doesn’t robotically translate right into a clear inflation unwind.
US banking large Goldman Sachs reportedly advised shoppers to not anticipate costs to fall shortly even after tariffs are lifted, as a result of firms have a tendency to boost costs quicker than they reduce them.
Goldman estimated tariff passthrough had lifted core PCE by about 0.7% via January, with solely about 0.1% further affect anticipated for the remainder of 2026.
That reinforces the concept the dominant market variables listed below are uncertainty and margin stress, not a recent inflation surge in itself.
Cross-asset indicators lined up with that interpretation. Reporting on the tariff reversal and alternative described the greenback weakening and gold rising while BTC fell.
This is a well-recognized sample when buyers transfer towards conventional defensive property and deal with crypto as a risk car fairly than a protected haven.
Trade coverage continuity, not readability, saved risk urge for food underneath stress
If the Supreme Court ruling was speculated to calm markets, the follow-through did the other.
Reuters reported that US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer stated nations with present commerce offers weren’t shifting to withdraw and that the administration would preserve coverage continuity, whereas additionally rebuilding its commerce technique via different authorized instruments, together with Section 301 and Section 232.
He additionally stated Trump raised the momentary tariff to fifteen% due to the “urgency of the state of affairs.”
That posture helped protect tariff coverage, but it didn’t cut back uncertainty.
The European Commission responded by demanding “full readability” from Washington and insisting that “a deal is a deal,” after Trump moved from the court docket setback to a brief 10% tariff after which to fifteen% inside a day.
Reuters additionally famous that the EU’s comparative benefit seems to have narrowed as a result of nations with no deal could now face the identical 15% headline price.
For markets, that’s the drawback in a single body. Policy continuity exists, but coverage readability doesn’t.
And when readability is lacking, capital tends to shorten period and cut back risk. That is what crypto traded like over the weekend.
Bitcoin is now again at the degrees the place positioning can speed up the subsequent transfer
Inside crypto, the macro shock hit a market that was already technically delicate.
According to CryptoSlate knowledge, $65,000 was already a key support area for the highest crypto, with a break under doubtlessly accelerating the decline in direction of $60,000. However, a restoration again may assist shift the tone and push the flagship asset above $70,000.
Meanwhile, the market had additionally seen a rise in options hedging and downside protection clustered around $60,000, which might make that degree extra vital if spot weakens once more.
That setup explains why the weekend transfer felt bigger than the headline alone. Tariff uncertainty hit macro sentiment, forcing liquidations to speed up the drop, and the market landed close to ranges the place options positioning can begin to form short-term price motion.
So, the subsequent section will doubtless rely much less on yet one more tariff headline and extra on whether or not the coverage path turns into simpler to map over the subsequent 150 days.
A grinding base case is feasible, with a brief surcharge in place, recurring authorized and administrative noise, and crypto caught in a large, unstable vary. A reduction rally can be potential if refund steerage improves and the market begins to imagine there are actual boundaries across the tariff regime.
However, the risk state of affairs remains to be the one macro merchants will watch most intently, a shift from momentary surcharge politics right into a broader, longer commerce battle that deepens risk-off positioning throughout property.
For crypto, the sign to look at shouldn’t be one inexperienced candle. It is whether or not coverage volatility stays elevated and whether or not buyers proceed treating digital property as the primary to chop when macro noise rises.
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