Bitcoin Positioned For More Pain Following Weekly Close Below This Critical Level

After closing the week beneath an important assist stage, Bitcoin (BTC) has fallen beneath the $65,000 assist for the primary time for the reason that early February crash, reaching a two-week low of $64,152.

Amid this efficiency, some analysts have warned that the flagship crypto might be on the “cusp of bearish acceleration,” warning that one other main crash might be across the nook.

Bitcoin Loses The 200-Week EMA

On Monday, analyst Rekt Capital highlighted that Bitcoin produced a “traditionally pivotal” improvement after closing final week beneath the 200-week Exponential Moving Average (EMA), which at the moment sits “on the middle of a significant confluence zone.”

Notably, the 200-week EMA aligns with BTC’s Post-Halving Re-accumulation Range highs, positioned between $66,000-$71,000. Meanwhile, the Post-Halving Re-accumulation Range lows, across the $58,000-$60,000 ranges, outline the broader construction of BTC’s present vary.

Over the previous three weeks, the cryptocurrency tried to develop a requirement area round this space, which was beforehand a significant provide space. However, this stage hasn’t historically been a structurally dependable assist for BTC’s worth, the analyst asserted, noting that it has beforehand acted as a 10-month resistance.

“In the present construction, now we have seen three consecutive weeks of elevated sell-side quantity on this area, with restricted significant buy-side response,” he defined.

Per the put up, this imbalance has led to a weekly shut beneath the 200-week EMA, shedding it as assist on this timeframe. This suggests {that a} “continuation of Bearish Acceleration into its second wave” may comply with quickly.

The analyst cautioned that now that worth has closed the week beneath this crucial stage, there’s a “robust chance that Bitcoin presses again towards the underside of that EMA to aim turning it into new resistance.”

If the underside retest holds, the construction would shift from defending the assist to confirming the resistance at this stage. He warned that if that stage begins to behave as resistance, draw back continuation will grow to be more and more possible.

BTC’s Bottom Targets $30,000

Rekt Capital additionally famous that BTC’s current efficiency aligns carefully with its worth motion in prior cycles. As he detailed, in 2018 and 2022, a weekly shut beneath the 200-week EMA acted as a structural set off to the second wave of bearish acceleration.

“Bitcoin would try to reclaim the extent, flip it into resistance, after which dissipate decrease. That sample is now making an attempt to duplicate itself,” he asserted.

Similarly, Ali Martinez pointed to the cryptocurrency’s historic efficiency, however on the three-day chart, affirming that this has been one in every of BTC’s key timeframes from a macro perspective.

According to Martinez’s put up, market observers should watch the upcoming interplay of the 50-day and 200-day Simple Moving Averages (SMAs), because the crossover between these two indicators on the three-day timeframe has traditionally preceded the ultimate leg down of the bear market.

Bitcoin dropped round 50%-72% from its 2013, 2017, and 2021 cycle tops earlier than its loss of life crosses came about in late 2014 and 2018, and mid 2022. Following the 50-day and 200-day SMAs crossovers, the flagship crypto skilled one other 45%-52% decline.

Now, BTC has fallen greater than 52% from its October 2025 peak and is approaching a potential loss of life cross on the three-day chart by the tip of February. “If historical past repeats — even partially — this might sign the start of the ultimate leg down of this cycle,” the analyst warned.

Based on this, Martinez predicted that one other 30%-50% correction from present ranges may comply with, putting the cryptocurrency’s goal close to the $30,000-$40,000 helps. “If the cross confirms, it turns into a stage to take very severely,” he concluded.