Glassnode: Bitcoin Realized Losses Have Hit Bear Market Levels
Bitcoin’s on-chain information has flashed a sign that has traditionally come earlier than extended bear market situations, with the Realized Profit/Loss Ratio confirming a regime shift towards loss-dominant promoting.
The transfer means that liquidity is evaporating from the market, forcing buyers to understand losses fairly than guide earnings, a dynamic final seen throughout the deepest crypto winter durations of 2018 and 2022.
Key Metric Flips Below 1 Signaling Capitulation Risk
According to information from on-chain analytics agency Glassnode, the 90-day easy shifting common of the Realized Profit/Loss Ratio has formally fallen beneath 1. The metric, which compares the entire worth of BTC bought at a revenue versus these bought at a loss, signifies that loss-taking now outweighs profit-taking throughout the community.
“This confirms a full transition into an extra loss-realization regime,” Glassnode analysts famous in a February 24 replace on X.
The agency highlighted that traditionally, breaks beneath this threshold have continued for six months or extra earlier than reclaiming the 1 stage, a restoration that usually indicators a “constructive return of liquidity to the market.”
The studying represents the end result of a pattern that started in early February, when the ratio was hovering close to 1.5, and late January, when it stood round 1.32.
Furthermore, the present on-chain construction reveals confluence with earlier bear market bottoms. CryptoQuant contributor _OnChain observed that indicators tied to whale exercise, significantly Unspent Profitability Ratios (UPR) for numerous holder cohorts, have reached ranges much like May-June 2022, a interval that preceded important draw back earlier than the final word backside fashioned later that 12 months.
Market Context and Historical Parallels
The present sell-side stress follows a dramatic cooldown in profit-taking that occurred in December 2025. Glassnode’s earlier information confirmed that 7-day common realized earnings crashed from over $1 billion in This autumn 2025 to only $183.8 million by December, which briefly allowed Bitcoin to stabilize and rally above $96,000 in early January.
However, that stabilization proved short-lived as macroeconomic headwinds intensified, with Bitcoin buying and selling at roughly $63,200 on the time of writing, down 3.6% in 24 hours and virtually 29% over the previous month. The asset can also be almost 50% beneath its all-time high reached in October 2025.
Analysts have attributed the continued weak point to a mix of macro elements fairly than a structural breakdown in Bitcoin’s fundamentals. U.S. President Donald Trump’s current tariff bulletins, together with a proposed increase on taxes on world imports, have rattled danger property throughout conventional and crypto markets.
Despite the bearish indicators, some analysts preserve that Bitcoin’s long-term cycle stays intact. Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan not too long ago framed present volatility as a essential “teenage state” of financial evolution, arguing that maturing property should go by means of speculative gradients earlier than reaching institutional stability.
However, chartist Ali Martinez warned {that a} three-day “demise cross” might be confirmed in late February, which foreshadowed last draw back strikes in 2014, 2018, and 2022, traditionally resulting in extra declines of 30% to 50%.
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