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Solana, Ethereum L2s (and XRP?) Just Got a Huge Buy Signal From Citrini Research

Everyone is speaking concerning the Citrini Research report that despatched the market into a tailspin yesterday. Buried in its 7,000 phrases of knowledge is a enormous purchase sign for Solana and Ethereum Layer 2s.

The report, entitled The 2028 Global Intelligence Crisis, is a work of fiction that explores a future state of affairs by which AI disruption results in what it describes as a “destructive suggestions loop with no pure brake”.

In quick, AI goes to displace white collar staff at an unprecedented charge. It ought to have been apparent, however we waited till 2028 for the penny to drop…

“It ought to have been clear all alongside that a single GPU cluster in North Dakota producing the output beforehand attributed to 10,000 white-collar staff in midtown Manhattan is extra financial pandemic than financial panacea. The velocity of cash flatlined. The human-centric client economic system, 70% of GDP on the time, withered. We most likely might have figured this out sooner if we simply requested how a lot cash machines spend on discretionary items. (Hint: it’s zero.)

“AI capabilities improved, firms wanted fewer staff, white collar layoffs elevated, displaced staff spent much less, margin stress pushed corporations to speculate extra in AI, AI capabilities improved…”

Here’s what that appears like schematically:

Entering an age of plentiful intelligence

There isn’t any self-correction as we might count on to see in a typical cyclical recession.

It goes one thing like this: development (or different financial exercise) slows, charges modify downwards, permitting companies to return to increasing output, till overproduction kicks in once more, and so forth.

In the AI doom loop, AI improves, fewer staff are wanted, fewer staff imply much less spending, the economic system weakens, firms put money into extra AI to guard margins, AI will get even higher, and the cycle repeats – there is no such thing as a pure break.

We thought it was a sectoral story. I’m not in Software-as-a-Service (SaaS), so there’s no want to fret. But it’s greater than software program. Much extra. It was a comforting notion that AI would usher in an period of artistic destruction, as seen in previous technological assaults on the outdated methods of doing issues.

Yes, AI will destroy jobs, however, as prior to now, new jobs and hitherto unimagined industries would emerge to exchange them.

Trouble is, in accordance with Citrini’s state of affairs, AI is a story of human intelligence displacement. The total white collar workforce is imperilled. It is the consequence of plentiful intelligence.

The authors of the Cetrini report remind us that superior economies just like the US are service-based. The report breaks that down so everybody can perceive:

“The US economic system is a white-collar companies economic system. White-collar staff represented 50% of employment and drove roughly 75% of discretionary client spending. The companies and jobs that AI was chewing up weren’t tangential to the US economic system, they had been the US economic system.”

Unfortunately for all of us – white collar, blue collar, no matter – machines don’t purchase stuff.

AI brokers destroy intermediation – bye bye bank cards, howdy stablecoins

The report makes a strong case for the way client brokers will finish the age of intermediation.

AI agents operate autonomously on behalf of their human house owners, which suggests they’ll discover the perfect flight or resort available on the market with ease as a result of they by no means get drained, don’t discover something monotonous or uninteresting, and by no means sleep.

The days of firms counting on our laziness or inertia are numbered. Add ‘vibe coding’ to the combo, and a new wave of startups can spin up supply companies apps in a few weeks to compete with DoorDash et al, or automate workflow in a bespoke means that matches your company wants extra performantly than say Monday. Everywhere, charges are being compressed to close zero.

And then we come to our associates, the banks. Why pay charges to Mastercard and Amex when you need to use a stablecoin operating on a low-fee blockchain like Solana, or an Ethereum Layer 2 like Base, Arbitrum, Optimism, or Polygon?

“Once brokers managed the transaction, they went on the lookout for greater paperclips.

“There was solely a lot price-matching and aggregating to do. The greatest strategy to repeatedly save the person cash (particularly when brokers began transacting amongst themselves) was to remove charges. In machine-to-machine commerce, the 2-3% card interchange charge turned an apparent goal.

“Agents went on the lookout for quicker and cheaper choices than playing cards. Most settled on utilizing stablecoins through Solana or Ethereum L2s, the place settlement was near-instant and the transaction price was measured in fractions of a penny.”

And what agentic AI will do for stablecoins may be utilized to cross-border fee protocols like Ripple’s XRP Ledger, though it doesn’t get a point out on this report.

Coinbase has already begun experimenting with a protocol that allows AI agents to make payments on-chain.

The tokenization, disintermediation, agentic AI narrative to beat the bear market blues

Crypto has been on the lookout for a “new” narrative to elevate the fog of the bear market. Well, it’s been hiding in plain sight: tokenization, disintermediation, and Agentic AI.

Will that remedy the issue of an economic system with out sufficient staff getting paid wages and salaries to drive the consumption that firms rely upon?

Probably not, however because the report contends, we’ve bought time to determine a resolution for that. Taxing the hyperscaler ‘robber barons’ is usually recommended, however that’s unlikely to go down properly with the Lords of the information facilities.

In funds, as elsewhere, disruption is coming and everybody – buyers, firms, and shoppers – wants to begin enthusiastic about what all of it means.

Consumer habits is already shifting. Chargebacks911, a international chief in dispute decision and chargeback prevention, is warning retailers and funds corporations that agentic commerce will reshape disputes, as AI methods transfer from recommending purchases to executing them. Chargebacks are fee reversals initiated by a cardholder’s financial institution.

For years, most chargebacks fell into three classes: fraud, service provider error, or purchaser’s regret. Agent-initiated transactions create a fourth state of affairs. The buy is technically authorised, however the consequence doesn’t match the client’s expectations.

“The funds trade has at all times handled the clicking because the sign of intent,” says Monica Eaton, founder and CEO of Chargebacks911.

“Agentic commerce removes the clicking. So now we’d like a new strategy to show intent when a human was in a roundabout way concerned.”

Keep an eye fixed in your checking account, and welcome to the longer term.

Report co-author Alap Shah, explains extra concerning the concepts within the report, reminiscent of AI-induced ‘ghost GDP’, the place worth accrues on the stability sheets of the hyperscalers however doesn’t present up within the “human-centric client economic system”:

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