Bitcoin Hashrate Recovery Signals Next Rally, Expert Says
Former CoinRoutes CEO Dave Weisberger argued in an X publish on February 23 that Bitcoin’s early-2026 hashrate rebound is greater than a mining-cycle restoration and could also be a lagging sign of a broader worth transfer forward. His core thesis is that sovereign-linked mining exercise is beginning to play for Bitcoin the identical structural position central financial institution gold shopping for performed for gold earlier than its breakout.
Weisberger frames the comparability by means of the recent gold cycle, the place he says sovereign accumulation preceded worth discovery by years. In his telling, the important thing sign was not ETF demand or retail flows, however central banks steadily including reserves as geopolitical fragmentation and fiat-risk considerations rose.
“The end result? A parabolic gold rally that few noticed coming in actual time,” he wrote. “Gold has surged to file highs properly north of $5,000/oz on this cycle, leaving the ‘it’s simply inflation’ crowd scrambling. The shopping for got here first. The worth discovery adopted later.”
Why Bitcoin’s Hashrate Recovery Is Signalling The Next Rally
Applying that framework to Bitcoin, Weisberger factors to what he describes as a “textbook V-shaped restoration” in community hashrate in early 2026. After a pointy pullback of roughly 15% to twenty% from prior peaks, he says computational energy rebounded from beneath 900 EH/s to above 1 ZH/s, accompanied by one of many largest absolute issue will increase on file, at practically 15%.
For Weisberger, that restoration is not only a post-stress normalization after winter curtailments, regional shutdowns, and post-halving margin compression. He argues it displays a unique class of miner stepping in. “This isn’t random noise. It is the direct footprint of sovereign mining stepping in the place non-public miners hesitated,” he wrote.
A central a part of the publish is Weisberger’s declare that not less than 13 nation-states are actually mining Bitcoin at a governmental or state-linked degree (backed by VanEck analysis). He cites Bhutan, the UAE, and El Salvador, and in addition names Russia, Iran, and Ethiopia as international locations deploying power belongings into mining.
“These usually are not retail and even company miners chasing each day hashprice,” he wrote. “These are governments changing stranded or strategic power into a transportable, verifiable, seizure-resistant reserve asset. They mine for coverage causes: income with out printing extra native forex, community safety during which they maintain a direct stake, and positioning in a world the place monetary sovereignty issues.”
Weisberger argues sovereign miners function with totally different constraints than non-public miners: longer time horizons, totally different price of capital, and fewer must promote output into market weak point. In that framework, sovereign mining turns into a mechanism for absorbing newly issued BTC straight into long-term holdings, decreasing sell-side strain whereas additionally strengthening community safety.
Weisberger explicitly describes hashrate restoration as a lagged, not coincident, indicator, as a result of sovereign mining enlargement requires {hardware} procurement, power contracts, infrastructure buildout, and coverage approvals. Those processes transfer slowly, usually in periods when worth motion seems flat or corrective.
He argues that this sequence can change market construction earlier than worth displays it: stronger safety, tighter issuance move, and broader validation of Bitcoin as a reserve asset slightly than a purely speculative car. His conclusion is blunt: “The hashrate restoration isn’t simply technical resilience. It is a sovereign sign flashing vivid. Governments are voting with power infrastructure and stability sheets.”
At press time, BTC traded at $63,209.
