Most Crypto Assets Need To Go To Zero, Research Firm Says

Castle Labs is arguing that crypto’s lengthy tail is structurally overbuilt and that the majority tokens will finally be priced towards zero except they’ll show actual enterprise traction and tighter token alignment. The thesis, revealed in an extended X submit, frames the present market as a range section quite than a broad-based restoration story.

The core level will not be that crypto itself is failing, however that token provide has far outpaced sustainable demand. Castle Labs says the result’s a market the place a handful of majors dominate whereas 1000’s of smaller belongings compete for shrinking liquidity.

Too Many Crypto Tokens

Castle Labs factors to focus information to make the case. According to the post, the highest 5 crypto belongings account for 84.4% of whole market capitalization, leaving the remainder of the market with 15.6%, or roughly $330 billion, unfold throughout 1000’s of tokens.

It contrasts that with US equities, the place the MAG7 characterize 31% of the market and the S&P 500 represents 84.7%. In Castle Labs’ framing, crypto has reached roughly the identical focus stage as the highest 500 US firms, however with solely 5 belongings doing the heavy lifting.

“Over the years, so many cash have been created that 99% of them have to go to zero for the business’s good,” the agency wrote. It provides that the mismatch has turn out to be tougher to disregard for traders who purchased into crypto’s institutional adoption narrative however stay deep underwater in alt-heavy portfolios.

Castle Labs outlines three broad paths for rebalancing: majors lose share to smaller tokens, exterior liquidity lifts the broader market, or weaker tokens lose worth whereas majors take up extra of the capital. It argues the third end result is the almost definitely, even when the primary can be more healthy in idea.

A serious a part of the argument is straightforward market mechanics. Castle Labs says token unlocks will proceed so as to add provide right into a market the place demand is already selective, citing $8.51 billion in unlock worth this 12 months and $17.12 billion over the subsequent 5 years.

That overhang, it argues, is colliding with poor enterprise efficiency throughout a lot of the sector. Out of greater than 5,600 protocols listed on DeFiLlama, Castle Labs says solely 76 generated greater than $1 million in income within the final 30 days, and solely 237 cleared $100,000.

Revenue is concentrated too. The submit says the highest 10 protocols in 2025 accounted for 80% of whole crypto income, whereas the highest three accounted for 64%, with Tether alone representing 44%. It additionally notes that solely three of these prime 10 income mills had launched tokens up to now: Hyperliquid, Pumpfun, and Jupiter and says solely HYPE materially outperformed.

That backdrop helps clarify Castle Labs’ skepticism towards new listings. It says there have been about 118 main token launches in 2025, and 84.7% traded under their TGE valuation, which it describes as proof of inflated launch pricing and weak post-launch construction.

The Alignment Problem

Castle Labs additionally argues the market is punishing tokens that aren’t economically aligned with the merchandise they characterize. It cites Circle’s acquisition of Interop Labs, the place Axelar’s token AXL was not a part of the deal, for instance of product worth and token worth diverging.

“Tokens will not be a authorized illustration of the enterprise and don’t provide any precise rights over the corporate’s income, not like fairness,” the agency wrote. “Investors, once they obtain tokens, have these rights via the fairness they maintain. So they’re in a greater place, however token holders? They are on the venture’s mercy on the subject of aligning their product with their token.”

In that framework, buybacks are handled as one of many clearest indicators of alignment. Castle Labs highlights Hyperliquid and Aave, and says Uniswap is just totally aligned with tokenholders after greater than 5 years of its token’s existence.

The agency’s conclusion is blunt however particular: capital ought to rotate towards protocols with actual income, tokenholder alignment, and credible mechanisms to offset dilution. Whether that thesis holds within the subsequent cycle could rely much less on narrative and extra on whether or not extra initiatives undertake the sort of KPI- and revenue-led launch fashions Castle Labs says at the moment are beginning to emerge.

At press time, the overall crypto market cap stood at $2.16 trillion.