Wall Street Call: TD Cowen Targets $225,000 Bitcoin By 2027
TD Cowen is reiterating a bullish medium-term path for Bitcoin, projecting roughly $225,000 per coin by the tip of fiscal 2027, whereas sketching an upside state of affairs that might take the asset to round $450,000. The name leans on tokenization as a structural demand driver, however the agency flags that the connection it’s modeling might not maintain if market dynamics evolve in a different way than anticipated.
TD Cowen’s Bitcoin Outlook
In a analysis note dated Feb. 24, 2026, TD Cowen framed its extra aggressive state of affairs round two interacting assumptions: “the variety of tokenized property will increase 100-fold (over time)” and transaction velocity tied to these property falls by 90%. Under these situations, the agency mentioned its evaluation “suggests a possible five-fold improve within the worth of bitcoin, to roughly $450k per coin.”
The $450,000 determine is positioned as a “bull case” illustration relatively than a degree forecast. TD Cowen emphasizes that its present base expectation is decrease, writing: “our present forecast requires Bitcoin to succeed in a worth of ~$225k per coin by the tip of FY27.”
The agency provides a key caveat about methodology and uncertainty: “While not a bottom-up forecast, our present Bitcoin worth estimate displays quite a lot of assumptions, one among which is elevated tokenization of real-world property, probably together with fairness securities. Though we imagine our assumptions are well-supported by traits noticed thus far, there could be no assurance that these relationships maintain going ahead.”
The logic is easy: if tokenized real-world property proliferate and the on-chain “velocity” related to these property slows sharply, the implied worth captured by the underlying settlement asset in TD Cowen’s framework rises. The observe doesn’t current this as a mechanical regulation, however as a sensitivity to how tokenization adoption and transactional conduct might reshape demand situations round crypto rails.
Policy stays the opposite main transferring half in TD Cowen’s broader crypto framework. In early January, the agency pointed to market-structure laws,particularly the CLARITY Act, as a possible catalyst that might formalize jurisdictional traces throughout the SEC and CFTC and produce clearer guidelines for staking, custody, and buying and selling platforms.
TD Cowen wrote on the time: “We imagine there may be room for compromise on all the problems in ways in which the crypto sector can settle for.” But it warned the more durable constraint could also be political relatively than technical: “The drawback would be the White House as Senate Democrats will probably insist on ethics rules for elected officials together with the President and his household.”
The financial institution’s timeline expectation is that Congress acts this yr, however not with out slippage danger. “We count on Congress will enact laws in 2026,” TD Cowen wrote, “although there’s a danger it might spill into 1H 2027.”
Still, the agency’s Bitcoin targets arrive with recent scrutiny after a latest miss. In mid-October final yr, with Bitcoin round $111,000, TD Cowen projected $141,000 by December; as a substitute, Bitcoin closed the yr close to $88,000.
At press time, Bitcoin traded at $65,422.