Nexo Analyst Flags This Bitcoin Price Blocker — Why Crossing $70,000 Is Critical Now

Bitcoin worth is up almost 5% prior to now 24 hours, briefly touching the $70,000 stage earlier than pulling again towards $68,000. This rebound helped Bitcoin recuperate nearly 12% from its February 24 low.

But regardless of this robust transfer, Bitcoin couldn’t maintain above $70,000. This hesitation is just not random. It displays a deeper problem that Dessislava Ianeva, Research Analyst at Nexo, says remains to be limiting Bitcoin’s restoration. Multiple information factors now present that whereas purchase indicators are showing, conviction stays weak. And till Bitcoin clears the $70,000 to $70,800 zone, this restoration might stay incomplete.

Smart Money Signals Price Recovery, But Breakout Still Needs Confirmation

Bitcoin’s recent rebound didn’t occur with out warning. One key indicator known as the Smart Money Index (SMI) started rising on February 24. This indicator tracks the buying and selling habits of knowledgeable merchants, typically linked to strategic positioning. When this index rises, it suggests skilled traders could also be positioning early.

The final time this occurred was February 13, when the SMI began shifting towards the sign line. Back then, the Bitcoin worth climbed about 7% over two days.

Want extra token insights like this? Sign up for Editor Harsh Notariya’s Daily Crypto Newsletter here.

This time, the transfer was stronger. Bitcoin jumped almost 12%, briefly touching $70,000. At the identical time, Bitcoin is now forming what seems to be a cup and deal with sample. This is a bullish construction. It typically seems earlier than breakouts.

But the breakout is just not confirmed but. Because Bitcoin remains to be caught under the essential upsloping neckline zone between $70,000 and $70,800.

This vary now acts because the set off stage. Until Bitcoin crosses it, the sample stays incomplete.

Nexo Analyst Explains Why Bitcoin Price Recovery Still Lacks Conviction

Despite bullish technical indicators, the underlying demand remains to be weak. Trading quantity exhibits this clearly.

Earlier in February, Bitcoin buying and selling quantity reached $125.5 billion. That was throughout the earlier worth transfer. Today, buying and selling quantity is round $52 billion. That is greater than 58% decrease.

Even extra importantly, Dessislava Ianeva confirmed this broader buying and selling participation weak spot.

“In 2026, BTC common buying and selling volumes are down roughly 17% versus the 2025 common, reflecting subdued market participation,” Ianeva talked about

This means fewer contributors are supporting the transfer. This is essential as a result of worth rallies want robust participation to maintain themselves. At the identical time, open curiosity has additionally dropped sharply.

Open curiosity measures the variety of futures positions which might be lively. Earlier in January, open curiosity stood close to $37.5 billion. Now it’s round $21.5 billion. That is a 43% drop. This tells us fewer merchants are prepared to take massive positions.

Ianeva added to this discovering by saying that:

“Derivatives positioning has normalized and funding circumstances have cooled, pointing to orderly deleveraging slightly than systemic stress.”

This means the market is stabilizing. But it additionally means aggressive shopping for strain is lacking. This helps clarify why Bitcoin restoration stays gradual.

Long-Term Bitcoin Holders Are Still Selling Despite the Price Bounce

Another main signal of weak conviction, other than the dearth of aggressive shopping for, comes from Bitcoin’s long-term holders.

The Long-Term Holder Net Position Change metric tracks whether or not long-term traders are accumulating or promoting Bitcoin over a 30-day interval. These holders are thought-about the strongest palms as a result of they sometimes purchase throughout crashes and promote throughout market tops.

But proper now, they’re nonetheless promoting.

February 24 confirmed a internet discount of 78,583 BTC on a 30-day rolling foundation. That promoting has solely barely slowed to 75,911 BTC lately. This remains to be considerably increased than the 61,431 BTC discount seen on February 23.

This exhibits that even because the Bitcoin price rebounded almost 12%, long-term holders didn’t shift into accumulation. Instead, they continued distributing provide.

This creates a significant drawback for the rally. Because sustainable Bitcoin worth recoveries often start when long-term holders begin shopping for aggressively, not promoting.

Dessislava Ianeva additionally pointed to this broader lack of conviction as a part of the macroeconomic (world financial) considerations.

“Macro uncertainty continues to constrain liquidity, at the same time as crypto-specific extra has largely been cleared and the market is in a more healthy place.”

This confirms that whereas Bitcoin’s construction is bettering with extra like leverage being cleared out, robust conviction has not absolutely returned. Until long-term holders cease promoting and start accumulating once more, Bitcoin’s upside might stay restricted — particularly close to main resistance zones like $70,000.

Supply Cluster at $70,000–$70,800 Is the Real Bitcoin Price Barrier

The strongest motive Bitcoin stalled close to $70,000 comes from on-chain provide information. This information is named URPD, or UTXO Realized Price Distribution. It exhibits the place traders final purchased their Bitcoin.

Two main provide clusters exist proper now. The first sits close to $69,400 and holds about 0.93% of provide. The second sits at $70,600 and holds about 0.60% of provide. Together, this zone comprises about 1.5% of the overall Bitcoin provide.

That makes it one of many strongest resistance zones. This explains why Bitcoin touched $70,000 however couldn’t keep above it.

Investors who purchased earlier at these ranges are possible promoting to interrupt even. This creates promoting strain. But this additionally explains why breaking $70,800 might change every thing.

Above $70,800, provide turns into considerably thinner, because the final key cluster sitting at $70,600 breaks. This means fewer sellers exist, and if Bitcoin breaks above $70,800, the following main goal sits close to $78,600. This represents a possible upside of over 11%, as projected by the cup-to-neckline distance.

Also, this stage is just not random, and the technical resistance aligns with a key URPD cluster as effectively at $78,200.

However, draw back dangers nonetheless exist because the broader development for the BTC worth factors decrease. Bitcoin should maintain above $65,700 to keep up this bullish construction. If Bitcoin falls below $62,400, the bullish sample would fail utterly.

For now, Bitcoin is caught at a call level. Smart cash indicators present early positioning. But falling buying and selling quantity, decrease open curiosity, and powerful provide at $70,000 are nonetheless blocking the breakout. As the Nexo analyst Dessislava Ianeva defined, the market construction is bettering. But conviction is just not absolutely again but.

The publish Nexo Analyst Flags This Bitcoin Price Blocker — Why Crossing $70,000 Is Critical Now appeared first on BeInCrypto.