Building a Fair Sports Exchange: Exclusive Interview with Amit Mahensaria, CEO of PRED
Prediction markets are increasing quickly, with a number of platforms introducing new methods for customers to commerce on real-world outcomes.
But as sports activities are more and more driving quantity in these markets, some founders are inclined to imagine that theinfrastructure itself has to evolve.
In the next dialog, Amit Mahensaria explains why his firm PRED is constructed round an change mannequin slightly than a conventional sportsbook. He additionally explains the way it approaches liquidity and pace in reside sports activities buying and selling, in addition to why hebelieves aligned incentives between platfrom and merchants are significantly necessary in terms of constructing long-term belief.
PRED positions itself as a true peer-to-peer sports activities prediction change slightly than a sportsbook or a house-backed market. For readers acquainted with platforms like Polymarket or Kalshi, what are an important structural variations in how PRED runs markets, makes cash, and treats customers?
The easiest solution to perceive PRED is that this: we’re an change, not a sportsbook. On a conventional sportsbook, you commerce in opposition to the home. The home units the percentages, takes the opposite aspect of your place, and earnings if you lose. That creates a basic battle of curiosity, and it’s why each main sportsbook on the earth ultimately limits or bans their finest clients.
On PRED, customers commerce immediately with one another. We match patrons and sellers. We by no means take the opposite aspect of your commerce, and we by no means take a directional place in opposition to our customers. Our income comes from buying and selling charges on matched orders. We make cash when individuals commerce, not when individuals lose. That alignment modifications all the things.
Compared to Polymarket or Kalshi, the important thing distinction is that we’re purpose-built for sports activities. Right now, these general-purpose prediction markets are deriving majority quantity by way of sports activities, however it’s coincidental, they don’t seem to be designed for sports activities. PRED is sports activities buying and selling infrastructure from the bottom up. That means options like cross-matching, the place a single order on one final result routinely generates liquidity throughout all associated outcomes in the identical match. It means capital effectivity mechanics the place your collateral works more durable as a result of the system understands the construction of sports activities markets. And it means reside match dealing with that’s designed for the high pace and volatility of in-play sports activities, not tweet hypothesis or political occasions.
Polymarket proved that on-chain prediction markets work. We’re constructing the following step: specialised infrastructure for the world’s largest prediction market, which is sports activities.
Speed and liquidity are all the things in reside sports activities markets. You’ve stated PRED is presently the quickest change for sports activities predictions—are you able to break down what that really means in apply, and the way your structure on Base allows that efficiency benefit?
In reside sports activities, a objective can shift a market by 30 or 40 share factors in seconds. If your platform can’t sustain with that, merchants both miss alternatives or get stuffed at stale costs. Both outcomes destroy belief.
We execute trades in below 200 milliseconds. To put that in context, most on-chain prediction platforms take a number of seconds to substantiate a commerce. Traditional sportsbooks can take even longer throughout peak moments as a result of they’re adjusting traces. Our execution pace signifies that if you see a worth on PRED, you possibly can truly get it. That sounds fundamental, however it’s genuinely uncommon on this area.
We constructed on Base, Coinbase’s Layer 2, for 3 causes. First, the transaction prices are fractions of a cent, which issues enormously for a buying and selling use case the place fuel charges can eat into your edge. Second, we get sub-second finality, which is the baseline requirement for reside sports activities markets. Third, the Base ecosystem is the place severe shopper crypto purposes are being constructed proper now, and people customers perceive the DeFi primitives that make an change mannequin work.
The mixture of on-chain settlement with off-chain order matching offers us the transparency of blockchain with the efficiency of a centralised change. You get the pace which is required for reside sports activities.
Many merchants in each Web2 sportsbooks and Web3 prediction markets fear about one factor above all else: getting banned for successful. PRED has taken a robust stance on by no means banning winners. Why was that coverage non-negotiable for you, and what does it say in regards to the sort of market you’re attempting to construct?
This one is private. I’ve been concerned in sports activities buying and selling for over 22 years. I’ve watched one of the best analysts and merchants I do know get systematically shut out of platform after platform merely for being good at what they do. They spend half their time on logistics, spreading funds throughout accounts, utilizing family and friends, looking for books that haven’t restricted them but. It’s absurd.
The purpose sportsbooks ban winners is structural, not private. When the home is your counterparty, each greenback you win is a greenback they lose. Of course they’re going to take away the individuals who value them essentially the most cash. It’s rational behaviour inside a damaged mannequin.
On an change, that incentive doesn’t exist. We don’t take the opposite aspect of your commerce. The extra expert merchants we entice, the extra quantity they generate, the deeper our markets turn out to be, and the higher the expertise will get for everybody. Winning merchants are our most beneficial customers, not our greatest legal responsibility.
This wasn’t some advertising and marketing choice. It’s a direct consequence of our change structure. We structurally can’t revenue out of your losses, so now we have zero incentive to punish your wins. That’s the type of market I needed to construct from day one: one the place ability is rewarded, not penalised.
One of PRED’s talked-about options is the 5–6% native yield on consumer deposits, which is uncommon in prediction markets at the moment. How does this yield work mechanically, and why did you’re feeling it was necessary to design capital effectivity into the core consumer expertise slightly than deal with it as an add-on?
Think about what occurs on a conventional sportsbook and even most prediction platforms. You deposit funds, and that capital sits idle till you place a commerce. If you’re ready for the suitable market or the suitable worth, your cash is doing nothing. On some platforms, your deposits would possibly sit uninvested for days or perhaps weeks whilst you’re being selective about your entries.
On PRED, your deposited capital earns yield whereas it’s in your account. We’ve partnered with international establishments to generate yield on the underlying stablecoin deposits. Also since we don’t have enormous advertising and marketing prices like deposit bonus, we’re in a position to move on a portion of our buying and selling charges to the customers within the type of yield. Your capital is working for you even if you’re not actively buying and selling.
We designed this into the core expertise as a result of capital effectivity is one thing severe merchants take into consideration consistently. If you’re a skilled, the chance value of idle capital issues. Offering native yield means merchants can hold bigger balances on PRED with out feeling like they’re sacrificing returns elsewhere. It removes a friction level that almost all platforms don’t even acknowledge exists.
This can also be a assertion about how we take into consideration the connection between a platform and its customers. Your cash ought to be just right for you. That’s a easy precept, however virtually no one on this trade follows it.
Your earlier profession spans funding banking, non-public fairness, and constructing Impartus into a scaled edtech platform that noticed actual institutional adoption. How did that background form your considering round market design, incentives, and long-term belief when constructing PRED?
Each chapter taught me one thing completely different. Investment banking and personal fairness gave me a deep understanding of how markets work, how liquidity is structured, and the way incentive alignment between contributors determines whether or not a market thrives or collapses. You study rapidly that markets solely work sustainably when the operator’s pursuits are aligned with the contributors.
Building Impartus, which was acquired by upGrad and scaled to 2 million customers, taught me one thing utterly completely different. It taught me tips on how to construct merchandise that earn customers and institutional belief over time. They undertake since you show reliability, transparency, and constant supply. That endurance and give attention to earned belief is one thing I introduced on to PRED.
And then there’s the 22 years of sports activities buying and selling that runs beneath all of it. That’s the place I skilled firsthand each downside PRED is constructed to unravel. Getting restricted, getting banned, sluggish platforms, ache of cashing out, watching platforms change the principles, watching the trade punish ability. That frustration is what made me wish to construct the choice.
The mixture of these experiences is why PRED isn’t simply a crypto product with sports activities bolted on. It’s constructed by somebody who understands each market infrastructure and the particular ache factors of being a severe sports activities dealer in a system that’s designed to work in opposition to you.
Unlike many crypto merchandise that prioritize short-term hypothesis, PRED emphasizes working a truthful market slightly than taking directional danger. How do you suppose this “exchange-first” philosophy modifications consumer habits and retention over time, particularly amongst severe sports activities merchants?
When customers belief that the platform isn’t working in opposition to them, their behaviour modifications essentially. They deploy extra capital. They commerce extra ceaselessly. They suppose longer-term about their methods as a substitute of consistently trying over their shoulder questioning after they’ll get restricted.
On conventional platforms, expert merchants develop adversarial habits. They unfold their exercise throughout a number of accounts. They intentionally lose some trades to keep away from triggering algorithms. They hold balances low as a result of they don’t belief the platform with massive quantities. All of that suppresses quantity and creates a worse marketplace for everybody.
On an change the place the principles are clear and the incentives are aligned, merchants can simply give attention to what they’re good at: analysing sports activities and taking positions. That would possibly sound easy, however it’s truly a radical change from how most of this trade operates.
In phrases of retention, the logic is simple. If you’re not going to get banned for being good, why would you permit? The greatest churn driver in sports activities buying and selling is platform mistrust. Remove that, and also you construct a group of dedicated, high-quality merchants who generate constant quantity. That’s the inspiration of a wholesome change.
Looking forward, what does success for PRED appear to be within the subsequent 12–24 months—is it about quantity, liquidity depth, new sports activities, or redefining how prediction markets match into the broader Web3 monetary stack?
Honestly, it’s all of these issues, but when I needed to prioritise, it begins with liquidity depth. Volume numbers may be deceptive. What issues is whether or not a dealer can come to PRED, discover a market they wish to commerce, and get stuffed at a aggressive worth with actual depth behind it. That’s the core promise, and all the things else follows from it.
In the close to time period, we’re centered on constructing a base of severe, energetic merchants slightly than chasing signup numbers. I’d slightly have a few thousand dedicated merchants producing actual, sustainable liquidity than a whole bunch of 1000’s of informal signups with no depth behind them. The high quality of customers issues greater than amount, particularly within the early phases of an change.
Expanding into new markets is completely on the roadmap. We launched with main leagues in Soccer (EPL, UCL, La Liga) and can develop into different sports activities quickly. And not solely new sports activities, however even inside a sport or a league, launching numerous markets that cater to various customers. Sports will drive a lot of innovation, like mixture in addition to conditional predictions. The infrastructure we’ve constructed is designed for buying and selling to scale throughout any sport with verifiable outcomes.
The greater image is about the place prediction markets sit inside Web3 finance. I believe we’re nonetheless within the early phases of individuals understanding that sports activities outcomes are a tradeable asset class with actual analytical depth, not simply leisure.
We raised $2.5 million led by Accel with participation from Coinbase Ventures, and that backing displays confidence on this thesis. We’re constructing for the long run, not the following cycle.
Disclaimer: The content material shared on this interview is for informational functions solely and doesn’t represent monetary recommendation, funding suggestion, or endorsement of any challenge, protocol, or asset. The cryptocurrency area entails danger and volatility. Readers are inspired to conduct their very own analysis and seek the advice of with certified professionals earlier than making any monetary choices. This interview was carried out in cooperation with PRED, who generously shared their time and insights. The content material has been reviewed and accepted for publication in mutual understanding. Minor edits have been made for readability and readability, whereas preserving the substance and tone of the unique dialog.
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